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The 2024 Home Run Derby is set for Monday night, live from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. A staple of MLB’s All-Star break, the derby is shaping up to be an electric one with some star sluggers lined up to participate.
The field includes 8 players split evenly between the American and National Leagues, but a new set of rules will be put in place. This year, the “knockout style” of head-to-head showdowns will not begin until the semifinals, a change from recent seasons.
The head-to-head matchup was used recently in a seeded system from the opening rounds through the finals, but the opening round will not feature seeds with the top 4 overall hitters in the opening round advancing to the semis. Then, the 4 semifinalists will be split up into seeds 1-4 for head-to-head matchups.
The opening-round tie-breaker — if needed — will be the longest home run hit among the players with the same number of home runs.
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CLAIM OFFERAlong with the previously instituted time limit, each player will have a pitch limit. The first two rounds will be 3 minutes or 40 pitches, whichever is elapsed first, while the final round will be 2 minutes or 27 pitches, bonus round excluded. The bonus round will no longer be timed and will conclude when a player makes his 3rd “out” of the bonus round.
While the format is changing, the action should still be electric, and the field is headlined by former Florida slugger Pete Alonso as the favorite to capture his 3rd derby title. Here are some of the notable odds and players to keep an eye Monday night:
The favorite: Pete Alonso (+340 via DraftKings)
Alonso will compete in his 5th straight HR Derby Monday night, but he has not captured the event since 2021. He has 2 victories, and a 3rd would tie him with Ken Griffey Jr. for the most derby titles in MLB history.
Alonso’s power is legendary after 53 home runs as a rookie and 211 career home runs in the middle of his 6th season. He has at least 37 home runs in every full-length season he has played and a trio of seasons with 40+ HRs.
This year, Alonso’s overall numbers are down a bit with a .454 slugging percentage (currently the lowest of his career), 85 strikeouts and 19 HRs. However, he will be right at home in the derby and should threaten to reach the finals.
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The young guns: Bobby Witt Jr. (+475) and Gunnar Henderson (+500 via DraftKings)
Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson both debuted in the 2022 season, and both young stars are putting up seasons worthy of AL MVP consideration as complete players. Witt has 16 HRs and a .558 slugging percentage at the All-Star break while Henderson has 28 HRs and a .584 slugging.
As it relates to the derby, both players have numbers worth considering entering Monday night.
Henderson ranks 9th overall in all of MLB with a 93.8 average exit velocity. That number is tops among derby participants to go with a hard hit % of 56.7 that ranks 4th in baseball and also leads all derby participants. Meanwhile, Witt’s average HR travels just over 418 feet, a mark that ranks 5th in baseball and leads everyone in the derby.
In fact, it’s hard to label either player a serious underdog entering Monday night. Witt has the 3rd-best odds (behind Alonso and Atlanta Braves slugger Marcell Ozuna), and Henderson is tied for the 4th-best odds with Adolis Garcia.
The longshot to consider: Jose Ramirez (+1300 via DraftKings)
Believe it or not, Ramirez does not have the lowest odds to win the derby. That belongs to Alec Bohm at +1600, but Bohm is the longshot to avoid. With just 11 HRs and an average exit velocity in the 69th percentile of MLB, Bohm is likely to be one-and-done at the Derby.
However, Ramirez is a longshot worth pondering a bit longer. He has 23 HRs at the break, a number that ranks tied for 5th in all of MLB and is the 3rd-most among derby participants. Only Henderson (28) and Ozuna (26) have more among players to take swings Monday night.
Ramirez’s average velocity numbers and distance numbers do not pop off the page, but he has the in-game power and prior experience at the derby after performing in the event in 2022. If you want to go the longshot route, Ramirez is the guy to pay attention to.
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Paul Harvey lives in Atlanta and covers SEC football.
