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Led by Trae Young’s 48-point, 7-rebound, 1-assist superstar effort, the Hawks stole yet another postseason opener by pulling an upset of the Bucks. Now, Milwaukee will have to find a way to rebound from its three-point home loss on Wednesday night or they will find themselves in their second straight 0-2 series hole.
With Milwaukee looking to even the series before heading to Atlanta, let’s jump into the 5 best Hawks vs. Bucks Game 2 betting picks and prop bet predictions.
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GET BONUS!Wednesday’s Game 1 loss was Milwaukee’s first home loss of the NBA Playoffs, pushing Atlanta to a stunning 6-2 on the road in the postseason. The Bucks couldn’t hold on for the win, despite 30+ points from both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday, who combined to shoot 56.0% from the field. The rest of the Bucks managed just 19-52 (36.5%) from the floor, however, despite being the league’s third-best field goal percentage group throughout the season (48.7%).
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Hawks vs. Bucks Best Bets and Props (Game 2)
1. Khris Middleton Over 23.5 Points (DraftKings Sportsbook -113)
Middleton struggled mightily in Game 1 of this series, posting just 15 points on a dismal 6-23 shooting effort, including 0-9 from 3-point range. However, this is a positive for a likely bounceback from the Bucks’ star.
Middleton has stepped up in the biggest spots for the Bucks this postseason, scoring 35 in Game 3 of the Nets series, with the Bucks down 0-2, while also dropping 38 in the Game 6 elimination game against Brooklyn. Then, he helped Milwaukee close it out in Game 7 on the road with another 23 points.
After scoring less than 20 points at home earlier this postseason, Middleton responded in his next home games to tally 35 and 38 points. He is averaging nearly 22.6 points and nearly 40 minutes per game here in the playoffs, so we are basically asking for an average game from him on a night where the Bucks know they need an above-average team performance.
Seems reasonable for a 89.8% foul-shooter who is the likely choice to have the ball in his hands late in a close game, setting him up for some easy points late if we need them.
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CLAIM OFFER2. Pat Connaughton Over 1.5 Made Threes (DraftKings Sportsbook +120)
Connaughton showed his worth in multiple ways in Game 1, voraciously crashing the boards and attacking the rim, earning him 29 minutes of court time, his second highest total this postseason.
With his length and and Giannis Antetokounmpo likely to see a much greater percentage of help defense tonight, Connaughton should provide the perfect spacing option for Milwaukee. He has already made multiple threes in four games during the playoffs to go with 26 such efforts in 69 regular season games (37.7%).
He averaged 1.5 made threes per game in the regular season despite playing just 22.8 minutes per game. With the expectation that he should, once again, see roughly 30 minutes of court time tonight, he should have ample opportunities to knock down two triples.
Connaughton is a better 3-point shooter here at home, making and attempting more long range efforts at Fiserv Forum than on the road. The Bucks guard made 2+ threes in seven of his 13 regular season games when playing 29 or more minutes (53.8%), seeming to draw a direct correlation between his playing time and 3-pointers made.
3. Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists (DraftKings Sportsbook -120)
In Game 1 of the Hawks-Sixers series, Trae Young shot 11-23 (47.8%) for 35 points, while still dishing out 10 assists. He used the same high pick-and-rolls in that game that he did in Game 1 against Milwaukee en route to 17-34 shooting (50.0%), good for 48 points to accompany 11 assists.
One would expect the Bucks to adjust as the Sixers did and begin trapping Young closer to half court in an effort to get the ball out of his hands before he gets into the lane for an easy decision between an easy dish and the running tear drop shot which he seems to have mastered. Once Philly did this, Young never shot over 44% again and only reached 35 points again in Game 5 where he went to the line 19 times.
The defensive adjustment did not keep Young from influencing the game, however, as he dished out double digits in assists in five of the seven games of the series with the 76ers.
Young should have plenty of open shooters to choose from tonight and they are likely to shoot far better than 8-32 (25.0%) from long range like in Game 1, as they are still facing the NBA’s second-worst 3-point field goal defense.
Young already has 36 games with 10 or more assists this season and now is on the court (38.5 minutes per game in the playoffs with five straight games of 40+ minutes) and handling the ball more than at any point this season.
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4. Clint Capela Double-Double – Yes (DraftKings Sportsbook -182)
Those who cashed on this prop in Game 1 now have to pay a steeper price to get on board tonight. But, there is still great value to be found, as Capela pulled down 19 rebounds to go with 12 points in Game 1.
His scoring stock should continue to rise as Milwaukee sends more bodies at Trae Young. Capela, a poor foul shooter who does all his work around the rim, should find himself the beneficiary of several easy buckets and offensive rebound putbacks as the Bucks scramble to chase the many Atlanta shooters around the perimeter after the high double-teams force the ball from Young’s hands.
Capela has scored 10 or more points in nine of the Hawks’ 13 playoff games, regularly playing 38 minutes per game these days.
With that kind of court time, compared to just 30.1 mpg in the regular season, we really should not have to worry about the league’s leading rebounder (14.3 rebounds per game) tripping over 10+ boards tonight.
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 33.5 Points (FanDuel Sportsbook -104)
The Hawks, despite earning the road victory in Game 1, seemed to have absolutely zero answers for Giannis. Antetokounmpo was able to, time and again, gather a head of steam with the ball at the top of the key and get into the lane for a high-percentage shot around the rim. He played a near-perfect game and even made six of his eight free throws.
Yet, despite a show of absolute dominance, the Greek Freak still only posted 34 points on his 14-25 (56.0%) shooting from the field. We say only, as a game of that ilk just barely squeaked above what would be required to beat this prop bet tonight.
Antetokounmpo has failed to reach 34 points in seven of his 12 playoff games thus far, tallying exactly 34 in four others. In other words, his only postseason game that beat this prop by more than a half-point was the Game 7 overtime victory in Brooklyn where he played 50 minutes.
The Bucks’ star only totaled 34 or more points 17 times in 61 regular season games (27.9%), including just five times in his final 29 games leading up to the playoffs (17.2%). This number seems inflated based on his reputation and Game 1 performance and we will gladly gobble up that extra value.
After all, with the league admitting that his two final foul shot makes in the dying breaths of Game 1 should not have counted due to 10-second violations not called, expect the refs to be watching closely tonight, possibly costing him a few free point opportunities that could be the difference for us.
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A graduate of the University of Florida and founder of Saturday Down South, Kevin is a college football enthusiast.
