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Georgia-Notre Dame: 3 matchups that will define Sugar Bowl Playoff quarterfinal
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Storied programs Georgia (11-2) and Notre Dame (12-1) meet for the 4th time, this Playoff quarterfinal coming on New Year’s Day in the Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:45 pm, ABC).
The programs have met once in the postseason, with Herschel Walker leading the Dawgs to a 17-10 win in the Superdome over heavily favored Notre Dame. The win captured Georgia its first modern era (post-integration) national championship. The ghosts of that game, played in the same building as Wednesday night’s contest, will certainly loom over this College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup. Many of the heroes of that game, including Georgia legends Herschel Walker and Lindsay Scott, are expected to be in attendance, according to the Times Picayune.
Will they be treated to another 4-quarter dandy like those fans? All signs point to yes.
Georgia is the SEC Champion, and even playing without star quarterback Carson Beck, Kirby Smart‘s program is a death star loaded with more talent than any football team in America. The Dawgs stumbled twice this season, but when pushed, they responded with gusto, besting Texas twice and rallying to defeat rivals Florida and Georgia Tech. Georgia was my College Football Playoff favorite prior to the Beck news, and it’s a testament to Smart as a program builder and gameday coach that they are only slightly less likely to win the Playoff without Beck.
The Dawgs are a 1-point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Notre Dame is 12-1, one of the most historic brands in the sport, and somehow … underrated? Marcus Freeman has upgraded every aspect of Notre Dame’s football operation since taking over for Brian Kelly, who resigned abruptly in November 2021 to become the head coach at LSU. Freeman has upgraded Notre Dame’s recruiting, landing multiple top-10 classes and helping the Fighting Irish build a roster with 57 4-star blue chip players, the most of any team in the College Football Playoff.
He’s also added support staff, leaned on the administration for increased salary pools for assistants and recruiting, and upgraded the coaching staff, bringing in outstanding defensive coordinator Al Golden and poaching Mike Denbrock from Kelly’s staff at LSU to coordinate the offense in 2024. When Notre Dame lost on Sept. 7 to Northern Illinois, it was tempting to think “same old Notre Dame.” But the Fighting Irish have used that defeat as fuel, rattling off 11 consecutive wins since. Ten of those victories came by double digits, including a rout of Indiana in the opening round of the Playoff on Dec. 20.
Here are 3 matchups that will define the Sugar Bowl.
Al Golden‘s multiple coverages vs. Gunner Stockton
This matchup could have been 1 and 2. That’s how vital it will be to the outcome of this game.
Gunner Stockton will make his first career start for the Dawgs on Wednesday night, bringing only 51 career attempts into the quarterfinal.
On the other side of the ball, he’ll face the nation’s best pass efficiency defense, led by arguably the best defensive player in the Playoff in Xavier Watts, the 2023 Bronco Nagurski winner and 2-time Consensus All-American.
Watts anchors what Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden likes to do defensively, which is change up coverages to create confusion for the opposing quarterback. Thanks to his NFL-ready blend of speed (4.49 40 yard dash) and physicality, Watts can play single-high, drop into the slot and cover a speedy slot receiver, or switch and tend to an aggressive receiver on the boundary. Golden likes to move him around, and has continued to deploy him in different ways in pass coverage despite the loss of fellow All-American Benjamin Morrison, Notre Dame’s best corner, to a season-ending injury earlier this season.
No matter.
Golden, who has coached 5 defenses to top-10 national finishes, has experienced a career rebirth after stops in the NFL where he served as an assistant for the Lions and Bengals. Golden infused his Notre Dame defense with NFL principles, including combo coverages where each player has a specific task but when in-sync, can create turnover opportunities and make a quarterback sense things that aren’t there. The result has been a defense that ranks 4th in SP+ defensive efficiency, 6th in success rate (how often an opponent gains a “successful” amount of yardage, given down and distance), 4th in interceptions (18) and 8th in total defense.
Golden is especially good at creating confusion on 3rd down, like on this play against Duke a season ago, where now Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard believes 3 things pre-snap: (1) that he has a single-high look with an option to win a 1-on-1 over the top; (2) that pressure coming from the linebackers means his checkdown running back isn’t covered; and (3) that the middle of the field will be open given pressure.
As the video demonstrates, this coverage renders every “safe” pre-snap assumption of Leonard false. Notre Dame drops help back for the safety, eliminating the 1-high risk. There is a combo coverage on the checkdown, rendering the running back covered in either direction, but freeing the other linebacker to pursue. And there is no pressure from the middle. Instead, Notre Dame’s middle linebacker shows pressure, then drops right back into the middle of the field, spying the quarterback. The result is a sack after Leonard scrambles, believing the middle is open.
Another look demonstrates the types of multiple looks Stockton will see in his first career start. Here is a vital 4th-and-short in Notre Dame’s only close game since the Northern Illinois defeat, against Louisville and their outstanding, experienced quarterback Tyler Shough. On this play, Notre Dame has Benjamin Morrison (now injured) playing off the boundary receiver. Slough believes pre-snap, as a result, that he’ll have a chance to hit his crossing route for a first down. Once again, Notre Dame is single-high, and because Louisville has a numerical advantage on the weakside of the field, Slough likely believes the safety will help on that direction, if anywhere. Again, this is eye candy from Golden. Instead, Notre Dame switches Morrison and nickel Adon Shuler, who plays a “robber” role here to cut off the crosser.
Shough actually makes the only throw he can make here — downfield — but by the time he makes it, Watts is blanketing his receiver and Notre Dame has a numerical advantage on a side of the field where it looked like “Advantage, Louisville” pre-snap.
The Fighting Irish also disguise where they’ll bring pressure. Here, they bring pressure from a zone side, creating a numbers overload. This, combined with a trap coverage on the back end, results in a turnover and Notre Dame points.
Can Stockton make enough plays and avoid too many mistakes against these coverages to win the game for Georgia? He’ll have to hit some downfield throws for Georgia to win. The absence of Morrison, a first round NFL corner with track star speed and good physicality, hasn’t hurt Notre Dame much all season but will against Georgia’s elite athletes. There’s also the vital matter of the enigmatic Arian Smith, who can win a 1-on-1 with any corner in America, catching the football. But much of this could be rendered moot if Stockton doesn’t make the proper reads. Notre Dame must win this matchup to win the football game.
Georgia’s talented front 7 vs. the Notre Dame zone-read
Georgia isn’t quite as dominant defensively as Kirby Smart’s best teams, but the red and black are still a mean machine defensively.
Georgia ranks 35th in total defense and 30th in success rate defense, but the Dawgs are much better against the run (21st in success rate) than the pass (88th). Notre Dame is built to run the ball, ranking 3rd nationally in rushing yards per attempt, 5th in success rate and 11th in rushing offense, per CFB Stats. The Fighting Irish’s best run concept is the zone-read, where Notre Dame averages nearly 7 yards per attempt, per Stats Solutions. Notre Dame blocks these plays exceptionally well, even on the boundary with their wide receivers.
They also have a quarterback, Riley Leonard, who can negate improper reads with his legs. That could be a frightening proposition for a defense that was just lit up by Haynes King making plays with his legs for Georgia Tech.
With Jeremiyah Love, who forced a Playoff-leading 66 missed tackles this season, nursing an injury, Georgia may catch a break. Jadarian Price is a solid player, but offers less in the way of power and tough yards after contact than Love. Fighting for extra yards against a Georgia run defense that has been at its best in big games will likely matter Wednesday night. But Georgia’s ability to defend zone-read will matter more. The Dawgs were poor against the concept against Georgia Tech (6.2 yards per attempt) and woeful against Florida (6.5). Versatile run games have presented this defense with issues, but there’s also the fact that against talented Clemson, Georgia was terrific against zone read, limiting the Tigers to just 1.7 yards per attempt. Which Georgia shows up?
Which team is more sound in special teams?
It’s been a while since SDS went “special teams” in 1 of these 3 matchup pieces, but the reality is this is a huge mismatch and one that could ultimately swing a close game. Notre Dame ranks 104th in SP+ special teams. Georgia ranks 4th.
Due to injury, Notre Dame fields a backup kicker who is just 8-for-15 on field goals this season, including 3 misses from inside 39 yards. Yuck.
Georgia, on the other hand, has Peyton Woodring, who has missed only 2 kicks in 2024 and is a staggeringly good 17-for-17 from inside 50. The Dawgs also have one of the best punters in college football in Brett Thorson, who averages 47.5 per punt and has a net average of 50 yards plus in Georgia’s past 2 games, including 2 coffin-corner pooches that helped Georgia dominate field position against Texas in the SEC Championship.
To beat Georgia, you have to avoid colossal defeats at the margins that win football games. Make what you will of Georgia’s less great than usual defense or the risk of Playoff football led by a backup quarterback with minimal game experience. The reality is Smart has Trevor Etienne, a strong offensive line, and a great punter and kicker. If the Dawgs shorten the game and make it about field position, they will have a great opportunity to survive and advance to the Playoff semifinals.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Georgia 19
Marcus Freeman’s program has been building toward this moment. Sure, Georgia is the better team if Beck were available. But it’s Stockton time in Athens, and while that long-term solution might work, it will prove to be too much of an ask on Wednesday night against the nation’s best secondary. Georgia’s run game and special teams will keep the Dawgs close, but Notre Dame forces turnovers and cashes in at least 1 for a decisive score.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
