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College football is undergoing sea change.
The Power 5 has become the Power 4, and the foundation of any football conference appears built on sand.
The College Football Playoff expands from 4 to 12 this autumn, and a 16-team tournament seems inevitable.
Nick Saban, imperious ruler of the sport for almost 2 decades, has retired at Alabama. His mentee, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart, rules the sport now, but not without serious cultural challenges in Athens.
The transfer portal and the overdue decision to allow players to earn a piece of the multimillion dollar pie that is big time college football revenue has changed the sport forever, and as NIL money increasingly shifts from big dollar boosters to corporate cash, the winds will shift again. Schools like Notre Dame, a storied power of yesteryear now 36 years removed from the most recent of its 11 national championships, are perfectly situated to pounce.
Notre Dame, without a conference affiliation but with a one-of-a-kind media deal and chock full of corporate cash, is well within the circle of the ever-changing list of “haves” that are uniquely positioned to dominate the sport in the foreseeable future.
The Fighting Irish have, albeit too slowly for some of their demanding alumni, moved back into the national conversation in the past decade. Brian Kelly advanced to a BCS national title game and guided Notre Dame to 2 College Football Playoff appearances before donning a southern accent and discovering that the grass wasn’t greener in Baton Rouge, where he has yet to sniff a Playoff despite a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback.
Meanwhile, in Year 3 under 38-year-old Marcus Freeman, the Fighting Irish return 15 starters from a 10-win team that, the last time out, steamrolled its way to a 40-8 Sun Bowl win despite starting a backup quarterback (Sam Angeli) and 6 missing starters.
With eight double-digit win seasons in the past 12 years and only one truly poor season in the mix, Notre Dame keeps putting itself in a position to succeed. Coming off a 10-win campaign in 2023, momentum is on Freeman and Notre Dame’s side and with the Playoff expanded to 12 teams, anything short of the program’s third College Football Playoff will be a failure in 2024.
Here are 3 thoughts on the Fighting Irish for the 2024 season, followed by game-by-game predictions.
Will the run defense remain strong?
Notre Dame is 51-2 since 2017 when they allow less than 4 yards per carry on the ground. Yes, that’s 51-2.
The Fighting Irish were 8-0 in those games a season ago, but 2-3 in others. Notre Dame returns All-American nose guard Howard Cross, one of the highest rated players on postseason mock drafts to turn down the NFL and return for his senior season. They added Duke transfer RJ Oben (5 sacks in 2024), but lost Javontae Jean-Baptiste, an outstanding player on the edge a season ago.
Behind that front, Freeman told SDS his linebackers have “a chance to be the best linebacker unit I’ve coached,” a testament to just how productive Jack Kiser, Jaylen Sneed, Drayk Bowen and the rest of the group can be. If the Fighting Irish get production immediately from blue-chipper Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, this group will certainly have tremendous depth even without JD Bertrand and Marist Liufau, 2 of the only players from last year’s defense that do not return.
Notre Dame finished 28th in run defense a season ago, but as long as edge setter Jordan Botelho and Cross are healthy, Freeman think this group can be even better. That would be good news for the Fighting Irish’s playoff aspirations.
Another transfer QB — another success story?
A season ago, Sam Hartman impressed in his lone season in South Bend, winning Team MVP honors and a Unitas Award finalist selection while guiding one of the most effective offenses in Notre Dame history. The Fighting Irish scored 39 points a game in 2023, the 2nd-best mark in program history, and their 9.13 yards per pass attempt were 3rd all-time.
Hartman is off to the NFL, but his departure opened the door for incoming Duke transfer Riley Leonard, who helped transform Duke football back into a winner. Leonard was injured throughout the 2023 season, but he arrives in South Bend healthy with 24 career touchdown passes and over 1,000 career rushing yards. Leonard isn’t the thrower that Hartman was, but his ability to extend plays with his legs should make Mike Denbrock’s offense more multiple. Denbrock is no stranger to dual-threat quarterbacks, having just coached Jayden Daniels for 2 seasons at LSU.
How well Leonard acclimates could define Notre Dame’s ceiling in 2024.
Is this the best secondary in the country?
Benjamin Morrison, a Freshman All-American in 2022, is now a preseason All-American and Thorpe and Bednarik Watch List selection. He ranked 8th among corners nationally last year in 1-on-1 target completion percentage against (36.7%), per Stats Solutions. Morrison has 9 interceptions and 14 pass breakups in his first 2 years on campus, and he is likely to shut down one side of the field. That means it is up to Christian Gray and Jaden Mickey to hold down the other side, where Cam Hart has departed for the NFL. If the Fighting Irish get productive play at that corner spot, they believe deeply in their safeties, Rod Heard, a tackling machine who transferred in from Northwestern, Jordan Clark, a fierce hitter from Arizona State, and Xavier Watts, who earned All-American honors a season ago with 7 interceptions.
“Xavier and (Morrison) are special young men,” Freeman told SDS. “They do the little things, from the classroom to film study to how they approach practice. There’s a chance to have multiple All-Americans on our back end. We talk about being strong through the spine and we know we can be with this group.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: at Texas A&M (W)
Kyle Field will be electric for Mike Elko’s debut, and I would expect Notre Dame’s rebuilt offensive line to struggle against a stout Aggies front 7. Texas A&M will find tough sledding against Notre Dame’s defense, though, and Riley Leonard will make enough plays with his outstanding group of receivers to help Notre Dame escape with a win in College Station.
Week 2: Northern Illinois (W)
Freeman lost a testy home opener against a mid-major in 2022 when the Irish fell 26-21 to Marshall. Northern Illinois has a similar profile, as the Huskies won a bowl game a season ago and return 16 starters from that group. Antario Brown (1,296 yards, first-team All-MAC) will test the Fighting Irish run defense, but Notre Dame’s offense will get into rhythm and pull away late.
Week 3: at Purdue (W)
Ryan Walters believes his program is ready to win again in Year 2, and Hudson Card is a huge talent at quarterback who is playing behind a big, experienced offensive line. If the Boilermakers hit some big plays in the passing game, this could be a close game and a frightening Saturday for Notre Dame in West Lafayette. But it’s hard to see a Purdue team that surrendered 30 points or more 8 times last season winning a track meet. Another game where Notre Dame distances itself late.
Week 4: Miami (Ohio) (W)
A comfortable win for the Fighting Irish after 3 games of various degrees of “trickiness” will feel good. The Fighting Irish’s ground game, which features a stable of blue-chip talents led by Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love, will shine against an undersized RedHawks defense.
Week 5: Louisville (W)
A season ago, the Fighting Irish’s Playoff hopes appeared excellent despite a close loss to Ohio State at home. After all, Notre Dame routed NC State in Raleigh and survived Riley Leonard (who was injured) and Duke at home. Then Notre Dame went to Louisville and laid a giant egg. This locker room, led by veterans like Watts and Morrison, will remember. Expect a lopsided Notre Dame win at home.
Week 7: Stanford (W)
Notre Dame won all of its rivalry games in 2023, including a 56-23 rout of Stanford in Palo Alto to reclaim the Legends Trophy. Notre Dame will overwhelm a rebuilding Stanford program, especially coming off a bye week.
Week 8: vs. Georgia Tech (Atlanta) (W)
This game will be contested at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, giving it more of a neutral game feel than pure road game environment. Brent Key’s Georgia Tech program should continue to improve and build on last season’s Gasparilla Bowl win, especially if some high level transfer portal talent pans out on defense. Haynes King and Jamal Haynes will also present the most balanced attack this Notre Dame defense will have faced all season. It’s tempting to go Jackets here, but Riley Leonard and the Notre Dame offense will make just enough plays to help Notre Dame escape unbeaten.
Week 9: vs. Navy (New Jersey)
MetLife Stadium will host the 96th edition of Notre Dame-Navy and while this game typically is close for a half, the outcome is rarely in doubt. Notre Dame has won 81 of the 95 meetings, including the past 6, and that trend won’t change this autumn. A huge Fighting Irish win pushes Notre Dame to 8-0.
Week 11: Florida State (L)
The last meeting, in 2021, was an instant classic, as Notre Dame stormed to an 18-point second-half lead but allowed FSU to score 18 unanswered in regulation before clawing back to win in overtime, 41-38. The game was a “glimpse” into FSU’s bright future under a young quarterback named Jordan Travis. Travis is gone now, but his replacement, DJ Uiagalelei, will look to avenge a 2022 loss he suffered at Notre Dame while the starting quarterback for Clemson. The Seminoles are stout defensively and balanced offensively, and they’ll win a close game by establishing the run on the road.
Week 12: Virginia (W)
Tony Elliott’s third Virginia team should be his most competitive, but they aren’t winning a road game in South Bend against an angry Notre Dame team. It will be intriguing to see Chris Tyree, the electric playmaker who transferred to Virginia from Notre Dame this offseason, return to Notre Dame Stadium in a Cavaliers uniform.
Week 13: Army (Yankee Stadium)
Notre Dame has won 15 consecutive games against Army, including a 27-3 win at Yankee Stadium in 2010. This will be another comfortable Fighting Irish win, though Freeman may need to keep his team from looking ahead to a season-finale at Southern Cal the following week.
Week 14: at Southern Cal (W)
A virtual College Football Playoff play-in game for the Fighting Irish, Lincoln Riley’s offense should be finely tuned by season’s end and pose an immense challenge for Notre Dame on the road. The good news for the Fighting Irish is defense remains an afterthought for Riley, and while D’Anton Lynn was an inspired hire, the Fighting Irish should exploit an underwhelming Trojans secondary on their way to a comfortable victory.
Projection and final thoughts: 11-1, College Football Playoff invitee
Notre Dame should finish 11-1 and earn a No. 5 or 6 seed in the College Football Playoff. In truth, the difference between being a 5, 6, or 7 seed could be stark. A 5 seed likely means a less talented Group of 5 opponent and a straightforward path to the quarterfinals. A 6 or 7 should mean a tough opening-round game against a deserving and talented team from the SEC or the B1G. Style points may matter for seeding, especially for the Fighting Irish, who have a manageable schedule aside from FSU at home and the 2 tricky road games that bookend the regular season schedule.
SDS is buying the top 5 total defense at Notre Dame from a season ago that returns 9 starters. That group will give Freeman his first Playoff team in South Bend. How much Riley Leonard and the offense can replicate the lethal unit that shined offensively in 2023 will tell the tale of just how long Notre Dame sticks around once it gets to the Playoff.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
