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Will Oklahoma State make the College Football Playoff in 2024? Breaking down the betting odds
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It’s fair to say that Oklahoma State finds itself in unfamiliar waters entering the 2024 season. They’ve opened a season in the AP Top 10 only once in the College Football Playoff era (2017). They’ve finished higher than 12th in the final CFP rankings in a year only twice — ninth in 2021, 12th in 2016.
There are many who believe Oklahoma State, led by Heisman contender Ollie Gordon II, will challenge for a Playoff spot in 2024. The Big 12 is wide open in what will be the first season without Oklahoma and Texas. The Cowboys have massive fixtures at home. You have to go back a decade to find the last time Oklahoma State had a chance like this to actually contend for a national championship.
The Cowboys won 10 games in 2023, but were never going to make the 4-team CFP. They won 12 games in 2021, but lost to Baylor in the Big 12 title game to slam the door shut on the CFP. They weren’t seriously in the picture at any point from 2017-20. They were 9-2 entering Bedlam in 2016, but lost that game by multiple scores. They began the 2015 season 10-0, but lost to Baylor and were then ripped apart by OU. Oklahoma played the foil in 2013, knocking off a 10-1 OSU team at the end. The Pokes beat Oklahoma in 2011, but a loss to Iowa State the week prior — one that still causes OSU fans to wince over — kept Oklahoma State out of the BCS title game.
Oklahoma State has won 69% of its games since the inception of the CFP. That’s a top-20 mark among FBS teams. They’ve gone 50-15 at home over that same time period.
When it comes to the most consistent programs in the country over the last decade or 2, Oklahoma State is in the conversation. Yet it hasn’t gotten over that final hurdle.
For years, that hurdle was Oklahoma. (OSU lost 7 of the last 9 to OU, but has won 2 of the last 3.) Now, the Sooners are gone. So is Texas.
My colleague, Connor O’Gara, has Oklahoma State finally breaking through. In his ongoing CFP prediction series, O’Gara has Oklahoma State making the field as the 4-seed.
Current odds from ESPN Bet have Oklahoma State +750 to win the Big 12. The Cowboys are priced at +900 to make the CFP. The win total is set at 7.5, with -180 odds on the over.
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Over the last 3 years, only 5 other Power conference schools (Notre Dame included) have performed better against their preseason win totals than Mike Gundy’s Cowboys.
The Pokes are among the country’s leaders in returning production, with a Heisman Trophy candidate at running back, a seventh-year senior at quarterback, their top 2 receivers back, and all 7 offensive linemen who played at least 200 snaps last season.
Twenty-one players saw at least 100 snaps on defense last fall, according to Pro Football Focus. Seventeen of them return.
Utah and West Virginia have to come to Stillwater, where OSU is 27-5 over the last 5 years. And the Utah game will be early in the season (Sept. 21), which means quarterback Cameron Rising might still be recalibrating after missing an entire year to a reconstructive knee surgery.
Unless Gundy does something wild, Oklahoma State should be competing for a Big 12 title and the first-round bye that would come with it.
But it’s fair to question Gundy. Oklahoma State might be more boom-or-bust than one would expect from a team with this much cohesion because Gundy is so often a wild card. His decisions can baffle the OSU fanbase. His steadfast commitment to his way can clash with others.
Last year, Oklahoma State took its time to involve Ollie Gordon II in the offense. He had only 19 carries in Oklahoma State’s first 3 games of 2023, including 3 in a home loss to South Alabama.
When Gordon received at least 15 carries in a game last season, OSU went 8-1. When he had fewer than 15, the Cowboys went 2-3. After scrutiny for not involving the tailback enough throughout Oklahoma State’s 2-2 start to the year, Gundy reoriented the offense around Gordon and the Cowboys ripped off 7 wins in 8 games to reach the Big 12 title game.
Quarterback Alan Bowman threw 501 passes in 14 games (36 per). And he was picked off 14 times. There’s frankly no reason to toss the ball around the yard that much with the ground game OSU has. Bowman completed only 60.7% of his passes for 6.9 yards a throw last year. He isn’t a world-beater, though he’s capable enough and experienced enough to lead a winning team.
Related reading: Ollie Gordon II among players worth backing to win Heisman
What kind of a step forward does the defense take? Because with so much back, there are no excuses. The Pokes ranked 123rd nationally in defensive efficiency, giving up 6.5 yards per play. They were routinely shredded by the big play. Only UNLV gave up more 20-yard passes than OSU. Only 10 FBS teams gave up more 10-yard runs. And they rarely got off the field once teams reached scoring position.
Despite the deficiencies, Gundy’s defensive staff remained largely unchanged. Three assistants on that side have all spent at least a decade on Gundy’s staff. Defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo is entering Year 2 in the role, and he needs to show something. Defensive line coach Paul Randolph is the lone newcomer, coming over from Indiana.
The defense was very young a year ago. A couple of key names return from lengthy injury absences, and a couple of under-the-radar transfers might be plug-and-play guys, but internal improvement has to take place for Oklahoma State to get to where it wants to go.
Oklahoma State opens against FCS South Dakota State at home. The Pokes play Arkansas a week later. The travel to Tulsa to close out the nonconference before welcoming Utah to Boone Pickens Stadium. They go back on the road to face Kansas State the following week.
That stretch will be illustrative. If Oklahoma State is going to make good on its potential, we’ll see it in those opening 5 weeks. If this is going to be another wasteful OSU team, they’ll drop a game to Arkansas or lose in Manhattan.
That being said, 1 or 2 losses might not shut and lock the door to the CFP in the way it would in years past. Oklahoma State has some margin. Not like those of SEC and Big Ten teams, but some.
If you want to bet on the Cowboys to make the CFP in 2024, FanDuel is the place to look. The book currently has the best odds of any of the major books for Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 (+900), make the CFP (+950), and win a national championship (+25000).
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Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
