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Overreacting to everything I saw.
College Football

10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 1 in the SEC

Chris Wright

By Chris Wright

Published:

Nick Saban dominated Week 1.

And the man wasn’t even in the game!

Turns out, neither was Clemson … or Florida (or to a less embarrassing extent Michigan or Oregon). Oh, no … to oh, my (Tennessee, Miami, Vandy? Yes, Vandy!).

Those are just some of the 10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after a partially-concluded Week 1 in and around the SEC.

10. Can you lose the Heisman in Week 1?

It’s a long season, Clemson is a better opening opponent than Pick-an-FCS (or Florida), but Carson Beck’s opening act looked more like a spring game walk-through than an emphatic opening statement by a leading Heisman hopeful.

You’ll look at his numbers (22-for-33, 278 yards, 2 TDs) — efficient, they were — and wonder whether I’ve ever watched football.

I looked at the “what-if” — what-if Georgia has to make a big play downfield in a critical moment without Brock Bowers — and wondered how it would ever do it.

Forward lateral jet sweeps are “passes.” Yards after the catch count just as much as air yards. Check-downs move the chains. I get it.

But they don’t move the Heisman needle.

Not with Heisman voters who use highlights like a crutch to support their ballot.

What throw did Beck make that made a voter say, wow!

As Stetson Bennett and JJ McCarthy proved, game-managers can still win the natty (and Georgia probably will), but they rarely win the Heisman.

9. Nico? Nico moved the needle …

“The top of this list is too crowded with proven commodities to overrate a guy with 1 career start. But if I had to bet on any player here ending the season ranked significantly higher than he’s starting out, Iamaleava would be a fairly easy choice.”

That’s how our Matt Hinton justified ranking Nico Iamaleava No. 8 among SEC QBs entering Week 1.

Hinton is prone to turning phrases but not necessarily overreacting.

That’s where I come in.

Let’s just say what needs to be said: There aren’t 3 SEC quarterbacks better than Iamaleava and, with Josh Heupel at the controls, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Vols lead the SEC in scoring in 2024 — on their way to Atlanta to play for the SEC championship.

8. Ole Miss is going to break the SEC scoring record

Go ahead and build a tracker.

LSU scored a record 726 points (in 15 games) during its historic 2019 season.

Ole Miss opened with 76 and won’t face a defense capable of keeping it under 45 until its 10th game — against Georgia. The Rebels might top 50 in more than half of their games.

The key to LSU’s record-breaking total was playing 15 games.

Ole Miss is a lock to get 13. If Jaxson Dart (418 yards, 5 TD passes Saturday) stays healthy, the Rebels get a 14th or 15th game and Lane Kiffin sniffs history? LSU’s scoring record is going down.

7a. The ACC champ better pray there aren’t 2 highly-ranked Group of 5 champs

One glaring misconception about the expanded 12-team Playoff is that the 4 power conference champions are guaranteed to make the field.

Spoiler: They’re not.

Realistically, it would take an act of Saban for it not to happen. But the only contractual guarantees are that the 5 highest-ranked conference champions earn an automatic bid, and that the 4 highest-ranked champs earn a first-round bye.

Almost always, those 5 automatic bids will go to the SEC champ, Big Ten champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ and best Group of 5 champion.

But if you thought last year’s FSU debate was peak chaos, just wait: It’s going to get stupid interesting if Liberty runs the table in Conference-USA and creeps inside the top 15 and Boise State (Mountain West) or Memphis (American) finish 12-1 and, say, are ranked No. 17.

The early return on the ACC is that there is no dominant team except maybe Miami, which started at No. 19. Remember, FSU opened the season at No. 10 — and promptly lost. Clemson was next at No. 14 — and Cade Klubnik’s performance in a blowout loss to Georgia made fans pine for Kelly Bryant. Dark-horse contender Virginia Tech lost to SEC bottom-feeder Vanderbilt. North Carolina lost its starting quarterback in a way-too-close win at Minnesota. NC State looked good, but, well, you know … StateSh!t might still be a thing in football.

It’s entirely possible the ACC champion winds up 10-3, clinging to a spot in the top 20 — but behind 5 other conference champs.

If that were to happen, the ACC champ could miss the Playoff again.

The rest of the scenario isn’t a stretch: Let’s say Notre Dame takes advantage of its soft schedule, runs the table and grabs 1 of the 7 at-large bids.

That leaves 6 spots — likely split between SEC and Big Ten teams, with perhaps a bone thrown to the Big 12, all of which could be ranked inside the top 12.

Bottom line: After an offseason filled with whining and court filings, the ACC needed to make a statement in Week 1 and, well, the statement it made was: Oh, no. Not again …

7b. Unless … The U really is back

This isn’t even an overreaction: Cam Ward is the best quarterback Miami has had since it joined the ACC in 2004.

Not so coincidentally, Miami has never won an ACC title and has only made it to the ACC Championship Game once.

Everything is set up perfectly for that to change. Everything.

The ACC, for average or worse, is there for the taking, and Ward is, by far, the most dangerous QB in the league. Even better, he has playmakers in Xavier Restrepo and Damien Martinez.

The defense played fast and angry against Florida, swarming and punishing, National Anthem to handshakes. And they did that largely without their best player, Rueben Bain, who left early with an undisclosed injury.

I know: Miami has earned its skepticism, one inexplicable loss after another, every season.

So if you want to play wait-and-see, no problem.

But you’re going to see the Canes in Charlotte, playing for the ACC title — and potentially a Playoff spot.

(Imagine if The U had landed home-grown Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1-ranked player in country. Smith chose Ohio State aka “The WRU,” and his debut went about as you would expect:)

6. Robert Freakin Petrino, baby …

Save the caveats. Overreactions couldn’t care less about the opponent.

Ten TDs on their first (and only) 10 possessions? That’s hard to do against air. Their first 70-point game since 2014? Taylen Green looking like … don’t say it … Cam? A 90-yard TD drive in the final minutes, when you’re already up 63-0? Hysterical. That drive, by the way, included 4 completions that covered at least 10 yards each.

Absolutely zero mercy shown. Does Bobby Petrino know any other way?

For one night, anyway, Arkansas’ offense was fun to watch. Almost as fun as watching Hogs fan react to  Petrino’s return.

5. 5 memorable SEC debuts

  1. Arch Manning threw his first career TD pass on a perfect day for Texas, which opened its inaugural SEC season with 52-0 tune-up ahead of next week’s showdown vs. Michigan.
  2. Oklahoma revealed its version of Luther Burden III, unleashing transfer Deion Burks, who caught 3 TDs in his Sooners/SEC debut.
  3. Ryan Williams, a 5-star playmaker billed as Alabama’s Next Electric Thing, didn’t wait long to justify the hype. He took the first pass he caught 84 yards for a TD. Alabama didn’t have an 80-yard pass play in either of the past 2 seasons.
  4. Jeff Lebby and Blake Shapen had Mississippi State’s offense rolling early and often in a blowout over Eastern Kentucky.
  5. Kalen DeBoer? Safe to say he won’t go 7-6 in his first season at Alabama, you know, like the guy he replaced did.

4. 4 preseason narratives that fell hard in Week 1

  1. Florida needs to be patient with Billy Napier. Reality: How much more do you want Gators fans to suffer? A record beatdown at home to a hated rival after having an entire offseason to prepare? Stop. They should have moved on last season.
  2. Michigan deserved to be a top-10 team. Reality: The Wolverines are starting over — and looked like it — after losing just about every key component from last year’s undefeated championship team. The Wolverines will do well to finish 4th in the B1G.
  3. Garrett Riley/Cade Klubnik will rebound in Year 2. Reality: 18-of-29, 142 yards, 1 INT leading to just 3 points vs. Georgia screams otherwise. Clemson would finish 10th in the SEC.
  4. Vandy won’t beat a power conference team. Reality: Vegas set Vandy’s over/under win total at 2.5, clearly not expecting the Dores to upset Virginia Tech in Week 1.

3. Give DJ Lagway the ball. Now

Florida isn’t going anywhere. Saturday merely confirmed the obvious.

But amid the doom and gloom, a sliver of hope: 5-star freshman QB DJ Lagway got an opportunity to show everybody what Florida insiders already know. He’s different.

Jesse Palmer did his best to restrain from saying the Gators have a budding QB controversy. And maybe they don’t.

But they should. The Gators responded to Lagway. They lagged under Mertz.

As Palmer noted, Florida’s best drive against Miami’s starting defense came with Lagway leading it.

Velo isn’t everything, but it’s not nothing, either. Lagway has it, which means defenses eventually must respect it.

It didn’t matter Saturday. And it might not matter much on 6 other Saturdays this season, either.

But you have to give the people — those inside the locker room and out — a reason to believe.

You tell me: Does it look like they believe?

Lagway is that reason. Based on what we saw Saturday, he might be the only reason.

2. Stat of the day/state of the program

Colleague Derek Peterson uncovered this gem and it was too telling not to share:

Clemson has managed just 2 field goals in its past 31 drives against Georgia.

  • Final 9 drives of 2014 loss without a score
  • 11 drives in 2021 loss without a touchdown
  • 11 drives in 2024 loss without a touchdown

The 2014 game prompted Dabo Swinney to pull the plug on Cliff Stoudt and go with Deshaun Watson. The 2021 and 2024 games obviously were after DW4 and Trevor Lawrence led the Tigers to national championships.

The gap between the programs is every bit as wide as the 31-point margin Saturday suggested.

1. Is there nothing this man can’t do?

What did Saban say in Blind Side?

We recognize greatness and appreciate it when we see it.

Enjoy “retirement,” coach.

Chris Wright
Chris Wright

Managing Editor

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.

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