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The following is part of a 10-part series, wherein I (Connor O’Gara) outline 10 chaos scenarios for the 2024 college football season. These are not predictions. These are, however, things that could happen that would create a significant ripple effect in the sport.
What is chaos, you ask? Last year, Texas beating Alabama caused chaos because it was the preamble for Texas’ return to the national spotlight while the Tide had “sky is falling” energy that prompted a QB change and a discussion about Nick Saban’s future. Saban’s retirement was also chaos because it prompted 4 FBS coaching vacancies, as well as raises for coaches who were reportedly targeted as his successor.
Chaos can come in non-Saban ways, too. Florida State getting left out of the Playoff as a 13-0 team was chaos, as was Deion Sanders beating defending national title runner-up TCU in his Colorado debut. Chaos can come in a variety of forms.
So far, we did:
- No. 1 — What if Ohio State fires Ryan Day?
- No. 2 — The chaotic teams that can win a title
- No. 3 — What if Lincoln Riley actually has a defense?
- No. 4 — A team with multiple losses wins the national title
Today is the fifth installment of the 10-part series for 2024 …
To say that the Group of 5 was a threat to the hierarchy of college football in the 4-team Playoff era would be like saying a single fish impacted the food chain in the ocean.
That sounds harsh, but think about it: The 2021 Cincinnati squad was the only Group of 5 team to earn 1 of the 40 Playoff bids in the 4-team era, and it suffered a ho-hum loss to Alabama in the semifinal. I suppose Luke Fickell’s team prevented Notre Dame from making the Playoff, but other than that, how much did the Group of 5 truly impact the 4-team Playoff?
This is where UCF fans remind me about not getting a shot to truly impact the 4-team Playoff and how the system was rigged against the Group of 5. Think what you want with that. That’s in the past.
In the future/present, the Group of 5 has a seat at the 12-team Playoff table. The question is, what will it do with it?
For today’s argument, let’s say the Group of 5 does more than just accept a bid and it advances to the Round of 8 (I’m not sure if we have nicknames yet, but “Elite 8” is taken). That’s chaos.
I know what you’re thinking. It’s not like it would be unprecedented to see a Group of 5 team win a game on a big stage. In the 4-team Playoff era, Group of 5 teams claimed these New Year’s 6 bowl victories:
- 2014 Fiesta Bowl — Boise State defeated Arizona
- 2015 Peach Bowl — Houston defeated Florida State
- 2017 Peach Bowl — UCF defeated Auburn
- 2022 Cotton Bowl — Tulane defeated USC
It’s worth mentioning that 2 of those teams (Houston and UCF) got the call up to the Big 12, along with aforementioned Cincinnati.
It’s also worth mentioning that while a 4-6 record in New Year’s 6 bowl games wasn’t an indication that the Group of 5 was a doormat, 3 of those 4 Power 5 teams that lost did so after losing a conference championship game. Think what you want with that, too. That, too, is in the past.
In the future/present, a Group of 5-Power 5 matchup in the Playoff won’t be a question of “motivation.”
That’s the upside for the Group of 5. A victory will feel different because it’ll still have a national championship on the table. Even being in that conversation in December would be extremely rare. That, we know. Let’s say that USF beats Wisconsin in front of a full house at Camp Randall. That would be the Cinderella team that reaches the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Sure, a long road would still await, but that’d be as loud of a Group of 5 statement as we’ve had in a long time.
There’s chaos in that. If we see one of those schools take down 1 or even 2 traditional powers in the first year that the Group of 5 is guaranteed a Playoff spot, that’ll be a rallying cry for the little guy.
At a time when the gap is widening between the power conferences and the Group of 5, the latter is holding on for dear life. Sound harsh? Perhaps you missed the part where Group of 5 schools are watching their per-school Playoff cut go from $1.5 million all the way up to … $1.8 million. Not ideal.
Does a Group of 5 team winning a Playoff game tell media partners that there needs to be more of a cut awarded to those schools? Probably not immediately, but the more Group of 5 relevance, the less momentum there should be for those conferences to break away and have their own title.
Specific to 2024, a Group of 5 team winning a Playoff game would be plenty chaotic based on preseason projections. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach released a post-spring Top 25. How many Group of 5 teams made the cut? Zero. In the “just missed” section, he had Group of 5 teams like Boise State, Air Force and Liberty. Here are their over/unders for regular season wins (via DraftKings):
- Air Force: 6.5 wins (Over: -140)
- Boise State: 8.5 wins (Over: -135)
- Liberty: 10.5 wins (Over: +120)
Perhaps there’d be more optimism for Liberty in the preseason if it had stayed on the field in the Fiesta Bowl instead of getting waxed 45-6 by an Oregon team that watched its Playoff bid end in the Pac-12 Championship.
There are increased chaos possibilities with the lack of preseason Group of 5 contenders. When Cincinnati made the Playoff in 2021, it did so in part because it was a preseason No. 8 team. The Bearcats earned that spot after their only loss in 2020 came when they nearly knocked off Georgia in the Peach Bowl.
On the flip side, that’s the beauty of the Group of 5’s automatic Playoff entry. It doesn’t need preseason momentum just to get a seat at the table. It can fly under the radar.
Perhaps the Group of 5 representative can overcome a 2-touchdown spread and win a road Playoff game. That’d be the first real indication that the 12-team Playoff is about to yield more chaos than we’re used to seeing in the sport. It’ll never be chaotic in the way that the NCAA Tournament is in men’s basketball, but a sampling of that would go a long way for the casual fan who grew tired of the lack of parity in the national title race. There’s something to be said for that. In the 10 years of the 4-team Playoff, only 9 programs won a Playoff semifinal game, and 4 schools (Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State) accounted for 15 of the 20 berths in the national championship.
Some new teams in the mix would be chaos. Group of 5 teams being in the mix beyond an automatic bid would be a different level of chaos.
Now is a pivotal time for the Group of 5 to stop being a fish.
Chaos scenario No. 6 will publish Saturday. To spoil all 10 chaos scenarios for yourself, watch the full breakdown, as discussed on The Saturday Down South Podcast.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
