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Week 11 of the college football slate is loaded with intriguing matchups.
Last week in this story, we discussed a number of interesting trends from around the country. Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 11:
Clemson after a loss
Clemson is still licking its wounds after it fell to Louisville last weekend in Death Valley. The Tigers will now try to re-focus and get back in the win column on Saturday against Virginia Tech.
Historically, this has been a solid spot to back Dabo Swinney and the Tigers. In the Swinney era (since 2009), Clemson is 17-13-1 against the spread when coming off of a loss. That’s a cover rate of 56.7%. The cover rate rises to 65% when looking at games where Clemson was favored by 6 points or more after a loss, as the Tigers are this weekend.
Clemson is a 6.5-point favorite against Virginia Tech this weekend, per the latest odds from bet365.
Oregon as a massive favorite
Oregon is favored by 24.5 points at home this weekend as it takes on Maryland in a Big Ten clash, per the latest odds from DraftKings. This will be the first-ever matchup in football between Oregon and Maryland.
In the short period of time that Dan Lanning has been in charge in Eugene, Oregon has excelled in this spot. The Ducks are 8-2 against the spread and 10-0 straight up when favored by 20+ points under Lanning.
On the 2 occasions that Lanning hasn’t covered, Oregon missed the number by a combined 3.5 points. In the 8 games that Oregon did cover, the Ducks beat the market by an average of 10 points per game.
Penn State after a loss
Penn State was on the wrong end of a thrilling game against Ohio State last weekend that saw the Buckeyes win 20-13.
James Franklin has taken plenty of criticism in recent years for not being able to win big games. And while the Nittany Lions have still won plenty under Franklin overall, their performance in games immediately following a defeat have left a lot to be desired.
In the Franklin era, Penn State is just 10-22-2 against the spread coming off of a loss. That’s a cover rate of just 31.3%.
However, it is worth noting that Penn State has looked better in this area in recent seasons. Franklin’s teams are 6-3 against the number in games following a loss since the start of the 2021 season. It’s a smaller sample size, but may be an indication of better performances in these sorts of spots.
Penn State is a 13.5-point favorite at home against Washington this weekend, per ESPN BET.
Indiana in 2024
Indiana has been one of the best stories in all of college football this season. The Hoosiers are famously 9-0 to start 2024 and can clinch their first-ever 10-win season on Saturday by beating Michigan.
It’s worth taking a look at just how dominant IU has been under Curt Cignetti in 2024. Indiana is 7-1 against the spread in FBS games, with the 1 failure to cover coming earlier this season against Florida International. The Hoosiers missed out by covering the 24.5-point spread by just half a point.
In the other 7 games, the Hoosiers have beaten the number by more than 18 points per game on average. Only twice has Indiana not beaten the number by at least 9 points. It’s been a staggering display of dominance that oddsmakers have simply failed to catch up to — at least so far.
It’s also worth noting that Indiana has been a very strong ‘over’ team so far in 2024. The over is 6-2 on the total in IU games this season.
Indiana is a 14-point favorite this weekend over Michigan, per bet365. The total has been set at 49.5.
Iowa State in Week 11
Iowa State is in an interesting spot this weekend coming off of a heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech. The Cyclones will go on the road to face Kansas in Week 10. Iowa State is a 3-point favorite this weekend against the Jayhawks, per Caesars.
Throughout the Matt Campbell era, this sort of spot has been a soft landing for Iowa State backers. The Cyclones are 12-8 against the spread (60% cover rate) when favored on the road in the Campbell era.
Iowa State is also 27-14-1 against the spread (66% cover rate) when coming off of a loss in the Matt Campbell era
Note: Trends via BetIQ
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
