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Week 12 of the college football season is almost here.
Last week in this piece, we broke down Penn State’s history in bouncing back from a loss, Indiana’s dominance against the number and more.
Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 12:
Tennessee as a big underdog
Tennessee is a 10-point underdog against Georgia this weekend, according to the latest lines from BetMGM.
This historically has not been a good spot to back Tennessee during the Josh Heupel era. There have been 7 previous instances of Tennessee being an underdog of 6 points or more since Heupel took over in 2021. Tennessee is 1-6 against the spread (and 1-6 straight up) in those games.
Tennessee’s lone win under these circumstances came back in 2022 when the Vols beat Alabama at home as 9-point underdogs.
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Ryan Day as a double-digit favorite
Ohio State is coming into familiar territory this weekend as it faces Northwestern as 28.5-point favorites (via FanDuel).
In the Ryan Day era, the Buckeyes are covering at a 60% clip (32-21-2) when favored by 10 points or more. That’s a pretty significant sample size considering Day is still a little under 6 years into his head coaching career.
Day also beats the number at a similar rate when Ohio State is favored by at least 20 points, albeit over a smaller sample of games (18-13-1). The same is true when looking at games where Ohio State is favored by 10+ points on the road (17-11-1).
James Franklin on the road
Penn State will make the trip to West Lafayette this week to take on a struggling Purdue team. Unsurprisingly, the Nittany Lions are favored by 28.5 points this weekend, per bet365.
Historically, this has been a comfortable spot for the Nittany Lions. Since the start of the James Franklin era in 2014, Penn State is 22-13-1 against the spread as a road favorite. That’s a cover rate of nearly 63%.
Penn State has also won 17 consecutive games as a favorite of 7 points or more. The program’s last loss in this spot was back in 2021 when the Nittany Lions infamously lost to Illinois 20-18 in 9 overtimes.
Brian Kelly off of a loss
LSU is coming off of an embarrassing performance at home against Alabama last weekend.
Throughout Brian Kelly’s history as an FBS head coach, however, he’s typically had teams that bounced back from tough defeats. Kelly has posted an above .500 ATS record in games following a loss at all 4 of his head coaching jobs, including LSU. Collectively, he is 41-24 against the spread in that spot. That’s a cover rate north of 63%.
Kelly’s teams are also 19-15 against the spread (3-0 at LSU) when favored in a game immediately following a loss. The Tigers are 4-point road favorites this weekend against Florida, per Caesars.
Hugh Freeze as a money line favorite
Fading Hugh Freeze as a money line favorite during his stints at Ole Miss and Auburn has been a profitable strategy for bettors.
So far at Auburn, Freeze has led the Tigers to a 5-6 record straight up in games where they were the favorite in Vegas. Based on implied win probabilities derived from money lines in those games, Auburn was expected to win a little more than 8.5 of those games on average — meaning Freeze has already missed Vegas expectations in games he’s favored in by more than 3.5 games in his first 2 seasons at the helm.
Looking back at his stint in Oxford, we see a similar pattern. Freeze’s Ole Miss teams went 25-12 straight up as favorites. Per win probabilities inferred from Vegas money lines, Ole Miss would have been expected to win more than 28.5 of those games. That’s another 3.5 games below expectation over his 5 seasons at Ole Miss.
Interestingly enough, Freeze does not have a particularly bad record against the spread as a favorite across his stints at Auburn and Ole Miss. He’s 4-7 ATS as a favorite at Auburn and went 20-16-1 ATS as a favorite at Ole Miss.
Louisiana-Monroe is +1500 on the money line on Saturday, per the latest odds from bet365.
Note: Trends via BetIQ
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
