Ad Disclosure
Week 13 is almost here.
Last week in this piece, we broke down Tennessee’s struggles as a big underdog, Penn State’s dominance as a massive favorite and more.
Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 13:
Ohio State as a big favorite
Ohio State is a 13.5-point favorite (via DraftKings) this weekend as the Buckeyes welcome Indiana into Columbus.
It’s not often that a game with massive postseason implications has a spread of nearly 2 touchdowns, but that’s the case this weekend. Ohio State has generally done a good job of beating the market in this spot during the Ryan Day era.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Ohio State is 31-22-2 against the spread when favored by at least 13 points. That cover rate rises to about 62% when only looking at Big Ten games and to about 74% when considering only Big Ten home games.
Perhaps the worst omen for Indiana is that Ohio State is 54-1 straight up when favored by 13+ points during the Day era. The lone loss came back in September of 2021 when Ohio State lost at home to Oregon.
Deion Sanders’s sterling ATS record
Anyone who has chosen to back Deion Sanders’s Colorado program has largely done very well over his first 2 seasons with the Buffs.
In addition to having Colorado in the Big 12 title hunt in just his second season at the helm, Sanders has maintained a very strong ATS record throughout his tenure so far. He’s 15-5-1 against the spread in all FBS games over the past 2 seasons.
Breaking that down a little more, Colorado is 6-2-1 against the number as a favorite during the Sanders era. The Buffs are also 7-3-1 ATS in all road games under Sanders.
Colorado is a 2.5-point road favorite this weekend against Kansas, per DraftKings.
Want to get in on the action this fall? Check out Saturday Down South’s full guide to the best real money betting apps on the market!
Mack Brown as a road favorite in ACC play
North Carolina is riding a 3-game winning streak going into this week’s matchup against Boston College. The Tar Heels are favored by 3 points on the road, per the latest odds from bet365.
There are multiple trends that would point you away from betting on the Tar Heels this weekend.
For one, Mack Brown’s UNC teams have not done a good job of beating the number as a road favorite. Carolina is 19-25-3 against the spread under those circumstances since the start of the 2019 season. That’s a cover rate of just 43%. That cover rate rises ever-so-slightly to 44% when counting only ACC contests.
Secondly, as has been mentioned in previous betting trends pieces, Carolina has not performed well against the number in games immediately following a win under Brown. UNC is 10-17-1 ATS when favored in games immediately following a victory in the Brown era.
James Franklin as more than a TD favorite
Penn State will look to move to 10-1 on the season with a win over Minnesota on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 11-point favorites against the Golden Gophers this week, per DraftKings.
Historically speaking, Penn State bettors have cleaned up in this spot. In the James Franklin era, Penn State is 43-28-1 against the spread when favored by more than a touchdown. Penn State is also 16-5 against the number when favored by 7+ points on the road over that time span.
When you tighten the spread to be between 7-14 points in all venues, the Nittany Lions are a ridiculous 21-8 ATS under Franklin. That’s good for a cover rate north of 72%.
Lane Kiffin as a significant road favorite
Ole Miss will travel to Gainesville this weekend for a must-win game against a Florida team that’s coming off of its biggest win of the Billy Napier era.
The Rebels are favored by 10 points, per the latest lines from FanDuel. Over the course of the Lane Kiffin era, bettors have done very well backing Ole Miss in this spot. The Rebels are 7-0-1 against the spread in the Kiffin era when favored by 7+ points on the road.
Napier has done well in this spot in his own regard, though. He’s 5-3 against the spread as a home dog with the Gators.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
