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Week 1 of college football action is complete.
It’s still very early in the year, but there are a few trends out there for Week 2 that bettors should take note of as they examine the upcoming slate. While betting trends like the ones cited below should never be used in-place of other research when handicapping, they can be an interesting data point if deployed properly.
Here are 5 betting trends to keep an eye on this week:
Fading North Carolina after a win
Mack Brown has done some good work in his second stint at North Carolina, but the Tar Heels have really struggled with how to handle success over the past few years.
Since 2019 when Brown re-took the helm, Carolina is just 15-21-1 against the spread in games that follow a victory. That’s a cover rate of only 41.9%.
The record is even bleaker when UNC is a significant favorite (as it is on Saturday vs. Charlotte). Over the same span, the Tar Heels are 0-8 against the spread when favored by 13 or more points in the game after a win. To make matters worse, they miss the number by an average of 20.75 points per game in that spot. Five of those 8 games resulted in outright losses.
Last week, of course, North Carolina beat Minnesota in dramatic fashion to earn a crucial Week 1 win. It’s also worth noting that UNC lost starting quarterback Max Johnson to a season-ending injury in that game. Conner Harrell, who competed with Johnson for the starting job during fall camp, is expected to start moving forward.
Tennessee vs. NC State breakdown
Josh Heupel is 11-6 against the spread when favored by at least a touchdown as Tennessee’s head coach. However, he’s just 2-2 in that spot when outside the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium.
Overall as a favorite, Heupel has been very profitable for bettors during his relatively short tenure as Tennessee’s head coach. He’s 17-8 ATS (68%) as a favorite overall and 7-4 ATS as a favorite away from home with the Vols.
On the other side, Dave Doeren has not been very good in this spot at all. During his tenure (since 2013) in Raleigh, NC State is 26-32 ATS as an underdog and 2-6 ATS as an underdog in nonconference games.
Over the last 5 years, NC State is 5-6 ATS when it is an underdog of 7+ points.
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Oklahoma as a significant favorite under Brent Venables
Oklahoma has been far from a perfect program under Brent Venables, but the Sooners have routinely covered the spread in heavy-favorite spots. OU is a 29-point favorite over Houston this weekend.
So far during Venables’ short tenure in Norman, Oklahoma has been favored by 28+ points on 5 occasions (vs. FBS teams). Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in those games, with the 1 failure coming back in Venables’ first season against Kent State. Oklahoma won that game 33-3 as 33.5-point favorites.
The most recent instance of this trend happened just last week when Oklahoma beat Temple 51-3 as 42.5-point favorites.
Kentucky as a double-digit favorite vs. SEC opponent
Kentucky finds itself in a very rare position this week. The Wildcats are favored by 10 points over SEC foe South Carolina.
If that number holds, it will mark just the 8th time during the Mark Stoops era (since 2013) that Kentucky will be favored by double digits over an SEC opponent. It’s also only the 2nd time over that span that Kentucky has been in this spot against an SEC program other than Vanderbilt.
On the previous 7 occasions, Kentucky went just 2-5 against the spread. The Wildcats did win outright in 6 of those 7 games, however.
As favorites of 7+ points against any opponent in the St0ops era, Kentucky is 28-1 straight up and 16-13 against the spread.
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Bouncing back from a Week 1 loss
Teams who look struggle in Week 1 often rebound in a big way in Week 2. Here’s a simple trend to illustrate this:
Over the past 5 seasons, teams who lost in Week 1 and enter Week 2 as underdogs of 7 points or more are 23-14-4 against the spread. That’s a cover rate of 61%. Over the last 2 years alone, this trend is 10-5-3 against the spread.
The idea here is that teams who lose in Week 1 are improperly-undervalued by the market based on a limited 1-game sample.
So who fits the mold for this trend this week? Here are a few examples:
- Troy (+18.5) at Memphis
- Jacksonville State (+28.5) at Louisville
- Temple (+12.5) at Navy
- Charlotte (+22.5) at North Carolina
- UMass (+18.5) at Toledo
- Kennesaw State (+15.5) vs. Louisiana
- Western Michigan (+38.5) at Ohio State
- Houston (+29.5) at Oklahoma
Note: Trends via BetIQ
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
