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Week 7 of the college football season is almost here.
Last week in this piece, we covered Pitt’s prowess as a road favorite, service academy totals, Matt Rhule’s performance against the spread after a win and a lot more.
Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 7:
Notre Dame off of extra rest
Notre Dame is unbeaten against the number when it has extra time to prepare during the Marcus Freeman era. The Fighting Irish are 8-0 in that spot since the start of the 2022 season. That includes season-openers, contests out of a bye week and bowl games.
Not only are the Fighting Irish 8-0 ATS in those games, they’re beating the number by an average of over 14 points per game. That’s a pretty solid track record that suggests Freeman and his staff are significantly better than average in these types of situations.
Most recently, Notre Dame covered — and won outright — as 3-point underdogs against Texas A&M in the 2024 season-opener. Here’s what Notre Dame’s results have looked like on extra rest under Freeman:
Three of those games featured a Notre Dame team that was a 3+ touchdown favorite, as will be the case on Saturday vs. Stanford. Per the latest lines from bet365, Notre Dame is a 23.5-point favorite over the Cardinal in Week 7.
This is the first of two byes that Notre Dame will have in 2024. The Fighting Irish will also have a week off before they face Florida State on Nov. 9.
Texas as a double-digit favorite
No. 1 Texas is a 14.5-point favorite against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl this weekend, per ESPN BET. While it’s very rare to have a point spread this large for the Red River Rivalry in general, Texas has frequently been favored by double digits throughout the Steve Sarkisian era.
Texas is 12-7 against the spread and 18-1 straight up over its previous 19 games as double-digit favorites under Sarkisian. The one loss under these circumstances came against Kansas back in November of 2021.
Over the same span, Texas has an even better cover rate in games when the Longhorns were favored by between 10 and 21 points. In that case, Texas is 7-2 against the spread and 9-0 straight up in the Sarkisian era.
Since 1995, there’s only been 16 instances of either team being favored by 7+ points in the Red River Rivalry. Twelve times it was Oklahoma who was the favorite and four times it has been the Longhorns. The favorite in this spot is 6-10 against the spread. However, it’s worth noting that Texas is 3-1 in that spot while OU is 3-9 historically.
Tennessee off a loss
Tennessee is coming off of a crushing loss to Arkansas over the weekend. It’s the first blemish of the year on a Tennessee team that looked to be on a path toward the College Football Playoff prior to its trip to Fayetteville.
In the past, this has been a good spot to bet on a Tennessee bounce-back performance. The Vols are 7-3 against the spread in the 10 previous instances where they’re coming off of a loss in the Josh Heupel era. They’re also 8-2 straight up in those games.
Tennessee is favored by 15.5 points this weekend against Florida, via DraftKings. Of the 10 games previously mentioned, 5 featured a point spread of 14 or more points. The Vols are 4-1 against the spread and 5-0 straight up in those contests.
BYU in 2024
BYU has been remarkable against the spread so far in 2024.
Not only are the Cougars 4-0 against the spread (in FBS games) to start the season, but they’ve comfortably beaten the market in each of those contests. In 4 games vs. FBS opposition, BYU is beating the number by an average of 17.75 points per game.
Perhaps more impressively, BYU has won outright as an underdog 3 times already in 2024. The Cougars have wins over SMU, Kansas State and Baylor as underdogs this season. SMU and Kansas State are both in the AP Top 25 for this week, solidifying what has been a staggering run for BYU.
BYU is a 3.5-point favorite at home this weekend against Arizona, per Caesars.
Unders in high-total games
The under has been on fire this season in games where the total reaches at least 60 points. In those games, the under is 36-12-2 on the season. That’s good for a cover rate of 74%.
It’s possible this is small sample size noise, but there is some logic behind why this could be happening. Many teams have been operating at a slower-than-normal pace this season as they adjust to the helmet communication rules that are new in college football this season. With teams deciding to be a bit more methodical on offense — even if it’s for just a couple of key drives — the market has seemingly been slow to adjust.
Here are some Week 7 games that have a total of at least 62 according to FanDuel:
- UNLV at Utah State | Total: 65.5
- Arkansas State at Texas State | Total: 63.5
- Ole Miss at LSU | Total: 62.5
- App State at Louisiana | Total: 64.5
- Marshall at Georgia Southern | Total: 62.5
Note: Trends via BetIQ.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
