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Week 8 is almost here.
Last week in this story, we discussed Notre Dame’s performance off of extra rest, Texas as a double-digit favorite under Steve Sarkisian, BYU’s sterling record against the spread in 2024 and a lot more.
Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 8:
Coach trends in Alabama vs. Tennessee
Tennessee is a 3-point home underdog (via DraftKings) to Alabama in one of the most highly-anticipated games of the weekend.
Historically, this has not been a good spot to back UT under Josh Heupel. Since 2021, the Vols are just 3-8 straight up and against the spread as underdogs. They’ve performed even worse as home dogs — just 1-4 straight up and ATS.
We don’t have many data points on Kalen DeBoer in Tuscaloosa, but we can look back on his performance in this spot at Washington and Fresno State. DeBoer went 3-5 against the spread as a road favorite during his 2 seasons at Washington. However, at Fresno, he went 5-1 against the number in that spot. He’s 1-1 so far at Alabama, picking up an ATS win over Wisconsin in September. The loss, of course, came against Vanderbilt earlier this month.
Attention Tennessee residents! Interested in betting on the game this weekend? Here’s a complete breakdown of all the best TN betting sites on the market in 2024!
Iowa as a road favorite
Iowa is a 5.5-point favorite on the road in East Lansing this weekend, according to Caesars.
Historically, this has been a good spot to back the Hawkeyes. Since 1999 when the Kirk Ferentz era began, Iowa is 30-19-1 against the spread when favored on the road. That’s a cover rate north of 60%. Iowa also won 80% of its games outright in that spot over the same span.
Iowa has been even better as a road favorite in recent seasons. Over the last 10 campaigns, Iowa is 17-6 against the spread (73.9) and a staggering 22-1 straight up.
Steve Sarkisian in close games
Texas is a 5-point favorite at home against Georgia this weekend, per the latest lines from ESPN BET.
Sarkisian does have some experience in spots like this where the spread is relatively low. Since 2021, Texas is 3-7-1 against the number when the spread is between +5 and -5.
Kirby Smart’s history also points toward this being an advantageous spot for the Bulldogs. Smart is 26-5 straight up and 17-14 against the spread in SEC road games under Smart. However, UGA has failed to beat the number in each of its 2 SEC road games (Kentucky and Alabama) so far this season.
Greg Schiano as a home favorite
Greg Schiano quietly has Rutgers nearing bowl eligibility already this season, but the Scarlet Knights need to win against UCLA this weekend. The good news for Rutgers is that Schiano has been very productive in these spots.
Rutgers is favored by 4.5 points this weekend against UCLA, according to the latest lines from bet365.
Since Schiano was re-hired at Rutgers in 2020, the Scarlet Knights are 6-2 against the spread and 7-1 straight up when favored by at least 3 points at home.
Big Ten travel woes
Everyone expected travel to be a big storyline in the Big Ten with the addition of 4 west coast programs, but it appears to be having a significant impact on the league’s results through the first half of the season.
Big Ten teams traveling 2+ time zones (essentially all games involving a former Pac-12 program and a traditional Big Ten program) have struggled both straight up and against the spread so far in 2024. In that spot, home teams are 10-3 straight up and 9-4 against the spread (h/t Saturday Tradition’s Paul Harvey).
So far, 4 teams have won outright at home despite not being the favorite in Vegas (including Rutgers’ win over Washington when the game closed at a pick ’em).
This week, there are 3 games that meet the criteria for this trend (lines via FanDuel):
- Oregon at Purdue (+28.5)
- UCLA at Rutgers (-4.5)
- USC at Maryland (+7.5)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
