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Week 9 of the college football season is here.
Last week in this piece, we broke down Big Ten travel trends, Steve Sarkisian’s struggles in games with narrow point spreads and plenty more.
Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 9:
Breaking down Notre Dame vs. Navy
Notre Dame is a 13-point favorite this weekend against Navy, according to Caesars. That’s usually the case when these programs meet annually, but is perhaps a bit of a surprise given that this is a top-25 matchup.
Notre Dame has decades-worth of experience playing against the triple option offense. To shorten the sample size a bit, here’s Notre Dame’s against-the-spread record against each of the 3 service academies since 2000:
- Air Force: 4-2
- Army: 2-1
- Navy: 11-12
That adds up to a cover rate of just over 53%. The Midshipmen have given Notre Dame the most trouble — at least against the number — since the turn of the century. However, the Irish are still 19-4 straight up against Navy this century.
There’s one other aspect of this matchup that is worth considering: Notre Dame’s record against ranked teams in the Marcus Freeman era. The Fighting are 9-2-2 against the spread against ranked opponents since Freeman took over as head coach ahead of the 2022 campaign. Only once (last season against Louisville) has Notre Dame failed to at least reach the number as a favorite against a top-25 team under Freeman.
Here’s a breakdown of all of Notre Dame’s results vs. AP Top 25 teams in the Freeman era:
Lane Kiffin as a massive favorite
Ole Miss is a 20.5-point favorite at home against Oklahoma this weekend, per the latest lines from BetMGM.
This is a pretty unusual spot for both programs to be in. For Oklahoma, it’s the first time the Sooners have been a dog of 20+ points since the 1997 season. For Ole Miss, this will be just the 16th time in the Lane Kiffin era that the Rebels have been favored by 14+ points. It’s just the 7th time it’s happened against an SEC foe, with 4 of the previous 6 instances involving Vanderbilt.
In the 16 times this has happened overall under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 9-6 against the spread and 14-1 straight up.
Here’s something else worth noting that speaks to Oklahoma’s ineptitude this season: the total for this game currently sits at 48.5 points, per BetMGM. If it stays under 50, it will mark the first time in the Kiffin era in Oxford that Ole Miss is involved in a game with a total that low.
BYU as road underdogs
BYU is (somewhat-surprisingly) a 2-point underdog on the road at UCF this weekend, per bet365. The No. 11 Cougars are undefeated so far in 2024 while the Golden Knights have struggled to the tune of 4 consecutive losses entering this weekend.
Still, it’s a tough matchup for BYU traveling across the country. However, this has historically been a profitable spot for bettors to back BYU. In the Kalani Sitake era, the Cougars are 15-8 against the spread as road underdogs. That’s good for a cover rate north of 65%.
Sitake’s teams in general have been good as underdogs, covering at a 61% rate since 2016. They’ve also been solid against the number (56.5%) in all road games over that same span.
Oregon as a double-digit favorite
Oregon is a significant favorite this weekend against Illinois in a top-25 matchup. The No. 1 Ducks are favored by 21.5 points, per the latest lines from ESPN BET.
The Ducks are 17-0 straight up and 12-5 against the spread when favored by 14 points or more during the Lanning era. That’s good for a cover rate above 70%.
It’s also been profitable for bettors to back Oregon after a win (67% cover rate) and at home (64% cover rate) since the start of the 2022 season.
Penn State as a road favorite
Penn State is a 6.5-point road favorite against Wisconsin this weekend, per DraftKings. Historically, this has been a good spot for bettors to back James Franklin and the Nittany Lions.
Penn State is 21-13-1 ATS as a road favorite under Franklin (since the start of the 2014 season).
The Nittany Lions also have an excellent record as a favorite overall during that span, beating the number 57.5% (56-41-3) of the time over that span.
Note: Trends via BetIQ
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
