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ACC newcomers: Can Stanford, Cal or SMU challenge for the ACC Championship in 2024?

Published: Jul 24, 2024 · 10:16 AM EDT

The ACC will welcome 3 new members into the fold this season: SMU, Stanford and Cal.

Their arrival, coupled with the lack of a clear favorite at the top of the ACC, begs an important question: Can any of these newcomers seriously compete for the ACC Championship?

With the top 5 highest-ranked conference champions set to receive an automatic bid into the CFP this season, the ACC Championship Game has perhaps never meant more than it will in 2024. Let’s breakdown all 3 of the ACC’s newest members and examine their outlook for the 2024 season:

Note: Win totals and ACC Championship odds come from DraftKings unless otherwise noted.

Stanford

FPI ranking: 59th
SP+ ranking: 84th
Returning production ranking: 2nd
Win total: over/under 3.5
ACC Championship odds: +40000

This is a somewhat-bleak picture for Stanford, who is entering the second year of the Troy Taylor era. The Cardinal have gone 3-9 in each of their last 3 campaigns, and they failed to win more than 2 Pac-12 games in any of those seasons.

Enough with the bad news. Here’s the good news: Stanford brings back a lot of its production from last season.

Stanford ranks 2nd in Bill Connelly’s weighted returning production metric. The Cardinal bring back 90% of its offensive production and 81% of its defensive production, per Connelly’s calculations. That doesn’t make Stanford a contender by itself, but as Connelly noted in his post-spring SP+ update, ranking highly in returning production typically correlates well with improvement over the previous season (and the opposite is true at the bottom of the returning production rankings).

Quarterback Ashton Daniels returns after a promising season in his first year as Stanford’s starter. Wide receiver Elic Ayomanor is also back after posting Stanford’s first 1,000-yard receiving season since 2018. His 1,013 yards were good enough for 8th all-time in a single season in Stanford history. That QB-WR duo could be one of the ACC’s best in 2024.

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One area Stanford will need to improve at is in the running game. Stanford didn’t have any running backs who cleared 100 rushing attempts last season. The only players to do so were Daniels and fellow quarterback Justin Lamson, who led the Cardinal in rushing with just 334 yards. He also averaged just 2.3 yards per carry. Stanford’s offense was in the 28th percentile last season in rushing success rate, so its volume and efficiency will need to improve significantly in 2024.

Stanford’s defense would also need to take a big step forward if the Cardinal are going to contend for anything more than bowl eligibility in 2024. Stanford’s defense allowed a success rate of over 51% last season, which ranked dead last amongst all FBS teams. Bobby April III is returning for his second season as Stanford’s DC in 2024.

Stanford likely doesn’t have the talent level or the defensive infrastructure to truly compete at the top of the ACC in Year 1. There’s no shame in that, however, as Taylor does seem to have the program on a good path in this rebuild. However, Stanford’s impressive returning production metrics do lead me to believe the Cardinal are better than where the betting markets are currently projecting them. I like Stanford to reach bowl eligibility at plus-money.

PICK: Stanford +230 to win 6+ regular season games (via FanDuel)

California

FPI ranking: 43rd
SP+ ranking: 52nd
Returning production ranking: 41st
Win total: over/under 6 wins
ACC Championship odds: +9000

Cal is coming off of a resurgent 2023 campaign that saw the Golden Bears reach a bowl game for the first time since 2019. Now entering Year 8 of the Justin Wilcox era, Cal will be hoping to repeat that accomplishment in Year 1 of ACC play.

Cal doesn’t return quite as much production as Stanford, but the Golden Bears are starting from a higher place overall. And they do still bring back enough to rank 41st in Connelly’s weighted returning production metric, which is plenty high enough to believe that they could sustain their success from a year ago.

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza was solid in 2023, especially for a freshman. Wilcox’s staff went out and got a pair of high-upside transfer receivers for Mendoza to throw too: Tobias Merriweather (Notre Dame) and Mikey Matthews (Cal). Cal also brought in several other transfer receivers to help bolster that room.

Perhaps most importantly, Jaydn Ott might be the ACC’s best running back on Day 1 after he rushed for 1,315 yards and 12 touchdowns a year ago. Ott will have a veteran group of offensive linemen to block for him as well.

Defense has often been the strength at Cal under Wilcox, but that was not the case in 2023. The Golden Bears placed in just the 14th percentile nationally in defensive success rate. They were particularly weak through the air with a 46% success rate allowed on passing plays last season.

Wilcox’s track record is good enough to give Cal the benefit of the doubt on defense going into 2024. The offense is legitimately exciting, with Ott and Mendoza leading the way on that front. But there’s probably not enough talent here to seriously consider Cal as a ACC contender, especially given all the extra miles the Golden Bears will be traveling for (most) road games this season. Cal will make trips to Auburn, Florida State and Pitt all before mid-October. Still, the baseline is high enough at Cal that I’d be willing to take its win total over at the right price.

PICK: Cal over 5.5 wins (-140 at ESPN BET)

SMU

FPI ranking: 25th
SP+ ranking: 23rd
Returning production ranking: 11th
Win total: over/under 8 wins
ACC Championship odds: +1600

SMU is by far the most interesting of the ACC’s 3 newcomers, at least when it comes to handicapping the conference title race. The Mustangs are very talented and likely would have been a CFP contender even without their move to the ACC. Now in the ACC, SMU has become something of an afterthought at the top of a league that includes teams like Florida State, Clemson and Miami.

But bettors should not be overlooking a SMU team that returns its starting quarterback in Preston Stone and enough other production to rank 11th in Connelly’s weighted returning production rankings. Stone averaged 9.3 yards per attempt last season and also avoided too many turnovers with a 28-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s arguably a top-5 quarterback in the ACC entering the year, with the upside to rise up that leaderboard in his second full season as a starter this fall.

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SMU has a deep group of complimentary players on offense. SMU’s 3 leading rushers from 2023 — Jaylan Knighton, LJ Johnson and Camar Wheaton — are all back this season. At receiver, the Mustangs return 5 of their top 7 pass catchers from a year ago.

The projected group of starters on the offensive line features 3 graduate seniors and a couple of other high-upside linemen who have experience as well. All 5 projected starters on the offensive line are former transfers, but 4 of them (all except for ex-Oklahoma OL Savion Byrd) have been with the program for at least a year.

Coach Rhett Lashlee is known for his offensive acumen, but SMU’s defense took a big step forward last season as well. The Mustangs finished in the 94th percentile in defensive success rate in 2023 and many of their top players are expected to be back in 2024 as SMU transitions to the ACC. SMU is set to bring back its top 6 leading tacklers, as well as its overall leaders in tackles for loss, sacks and interceptions.

SMU does have to face Florida State, but its gets the Noles at home. The Mustangs will avoid having to face Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State or North Carolina during the regular season. They’ll have a chance to be favored in every road game they play this season, with the possible exception of Louisville on Oct. 5. It’s a schedule that sets up for SMU to make a serious run at the ACC title game.

PICK: SMU to win the ACC (+1800 on bet365)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.