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Auburn vs. Alabama preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Published: Jan 24, 2024 · 12:00 PM EST

Auburn will put its 11-game winning streak on the line as it faces off against Alabama on Wednesday evening.

These squads will play their first of 2 matchups this season at 7:30 p.m. ET in Tuscaloosa. While Auburn has a big winning streak this season, it’s Alabama who has won the last 2 matchups in this series.

Let’s break down this matchup by looking at some betting trends and advanced stats:

Auburn vs. Alabama Betting Odds

Spread: Alabama -3.5 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/Under 162 points (DraftKings)

Betting trends to know for Auburn

Auburn is…

12-6 against the spread
5-0 against the spread in SEC games
2-1 against the spread on the road
7-3 against the spread on equal rest
0-0 as an underdog

Auburn has been excellent against the spread all season. The Tigers have beaten the number in all 5 of their SEC games so far in 2023-24. However, this marks the first time all season that Auburn will be an underdog in Vegas. Auburn also enters’ Wednesday night’s game against the Tide having only played 3 true road games all year (at App State, Arkansas and Vanderbilt).

Betting trends to know for Alabama

Alabama is…

10-8 against the spread
7-2 against the spread at home
8-5 against the spread as the favorite
3-2 against the spread in SEC games
1-3 against the spread vs. ranked opponents

Alabama has been solid — albeit not amazing – against the spread in 2023-24. The Crimson Tide have struggled against the best teams on their schedule, however. They were on the wrong side of a drubbing vs. Tennessee the last time out. Overall this season, Alabama is just 1-3 against the spread vs. ranked teams. However, this is the first time all year that Alabama has been favored against a ranked team.

Interested in getting in on the action? Here are details on the 6 best sports betting apps on the market as of January 2024.

3 notes for the game

This is potentially a buy-low spot on Alabama

Alabama is coming off of a 20-point loss to Tennessee in its most recent game. The Crimson Tide gave up 91 points to a surging Vols’ offense and were unable to keep up, especially in the 2nd half. Tennessee led by as many as 27 points late into the game. Alabama went just 4-for-21 from 3-point range in that loss — a stunning fall-from-grace after it had made 10+ attempts from downtown in 6 straight contests.

Alabama also enters this matchup as an unranked favorite going against a top-10 team in Auburn. And although Alabama is not in the AP Top-25, the Tide do have the statistical profile of an elite team. Alabama ranks No. 8 nationally according to KenPom and No. 6 nationally per BartTorvik. Alabama has the No. 2-ranked offense in the country per both of those metrics as well.

This Alabama team has also been very good at home this season. The Tide have not lost at home since falling to Clemson way back on Nov. 28. The Tigers shot a ridiculous 54% from the floor and 52% from 3-point range in that game. Bad shooting-luck games are going to happen to a team throughout the course of a long season, and that appears to be what happened vs. Clemson.

All of these factors make Alabama an intriguing buy-low candidate in this spot against a No. 8 Auburn team that has won 11 games in a row.

Auburn might be the most well-balanced team in the country

Of course, there’s a reason why Auburn has won 11 straight games — this is an elite team on both sides of the floor. Auburn is in the top 10 of both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Arizona is the only other team in the country who can say that.

Defensively, Auburn’s best trait is how well it guards the perimeter. Auburn has limited opponents to making just 29.1% of their 3-point attempts this season, which ranks in the top-20 nationally. That has brought Auburn’s defensive effective field goal percentage to just 43%, which is top-3 in the country. Auburn’s defense also forces opponents to take tough 2-point shots. Opponents are shooting just 42.7% from inside the arc against the Tigers this season. According to BartTorvik, Auburn opponents shoot just 34.2% on shots classified as “farther twos” — a shot that makes up nearly 25% of the shot diet for opposing offenses.

Auburn does have a key weakness compared to most other elite offenses: 3-point shooting. The Tigers are pretty mediocre from long range by top-10 team standards, as they’ve only hit 33.9% of their 3-point tries this season. Aden Holloway is the only Auburn player who takes more than 3.5 3-point attempts per game, and he’s making them at solid-but-unspectacular clip of 34.8%. Auburn has just 1 shooter in its rotation who is hitting 3s at better than a 40% rate, and that’s Jaylin Williams (45.2% on 2.7 attempts per game). Auburn is certainly capable of having a big night from long range against the Tide, but it hasn’t been super consistent in that area so far this season.

Fascinating tempo matchup

This should be a fast-paced game. Both Alabama and Auburn play with quick tempo, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams rank in the top-45 of average possession length offensively, per KenPom.

However, it will be interesting to see how that meshes with each team’s defensive tendencies. The Tide and Tigers both tend to force opposing offenses into longer possessions — they both currently sit outside of the top-300 in defensive possession length, per KenPom.

The total for this game currently sits at 162 points. The over is 13-5 in Alabama games this season, perhaps because of the fast pace it plays on the offensive side of the ball. The under has been more profitable in Auburn games this season (11-7), but rarely have the Tigers played a team who likes to get up-and-down the floor the way Alabama does.

1 pick for this game

Over 162 points. I’m expecting this to be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of possessions between these lightning-fast offenses. Auburn might try to control the pace a little bit more, but with this game being played in Tuscaloosa, that could be more challenging. Both of these offenses are capable of getting well into the 80’s (if not higher).

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.