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Two of the more intriguing teams in college football will meet Saturday at Kyle Field when No. 9 Missouri visits No. 25 Texas A&M (noon, EDT, ABC).
Missouri is unbeaten and ranked inside the top 10, but Saturday’s game will be the first foray for the Tigers outside the friendly confines of Faurot Field. The Texas A&M game will also mark the first time the Tigers have faced an opponent with more talent this season, at least if you subscribe to the 247 Talent composite team talent rankings, which have the Aggies at No. 10, Tigers at No. 19.
While Missouri is a mystery because of what it still has to prove, Texas A&M is intriguing because it is battle-tested and better for it.
Yes, the Aggies lost a 23-13 heartbreaker to then No. 7 Notre Dame at Kyle Field on opening night. But the Aggies have rattled off 4 consecutive wins since, including a rout of Florida in a sold out Swamp and an impressive win last weekend in Arlington over a vastly improved Arkansas.
Mike Elko’s first Texas A&M team isn’t without warts, as a sleepy, nip and tuck win over MAC foe Bowling Green two weekends ago at Kyle Field demonstrates. But the Aggies have elite talent, and with their 3 toughest remaining games (Missouri, LSU, Texas) all at Kyle Field, a 10-2 or 11-1 regular season is an achievable goal, not simply a conversation piece.
That makes Saturday’s game in Bryan-College Station a battle of two teams with College Football Playoff aspirations.
To leave Kyle Field a Playoff contender and not a pretender, the Tigers will need to play their best football since their domination of Ohio State in last year’s Cotton Bowl Classic.
The Tigers have played tenacious defense all year, ranking No. 3 nationally in total defense, 5th in success rate defense and 15th SP+ defensive efficiency (SP+ adjusts for opponent quality, which explains the drop-off).
What Eli Drinkwitz’s team hasn’t done, however, is consistently move the football.
Sure, the numbers say the Tigers have one of the nation’s most efficient offenses. The Tigers rank 19th in total offense, 11th in SP+ offense and 15th in success rate offense. Success rate, for those unacquainted, measures how successful a single play offensively is based on yards gained toward the next first down. Missouri’s offense, which features outstanding balance and has looked formidable running the football despite losing All-American running back Cody Schrader and All-SEC left tackle Javon Foster, ranks among the national elite in success rate offense.
Ask Missouri fans and close observers, though, and they’ll tell you the eye test tells a different story. Watch Missouri more closely, and you’ll see a quarterback in Brady Cook who hasn’t yet hit his stride and an offense that stays on schedule but hasn’t yet found a way to be explosive.
Cook has 946 yards passing and has completed a career-best 68.7% of his throws through 4 games. But he’s only thrown 4 TD passes — all to Luther Burden III. And his yards per attempt of 7.1 is down almost 2 full yards from a season ago (9.0) and his average depth of target is just 8.2 yards, down more than a yard from last year’s 9.4. Cook isn’t making bad decisions — he has just 1 turnover worthy play (his lone interception) this season, best among SEC quarterbacks, per PFF. He’s just not making big time plays, either. The Tigers rank 107th in explosive plays (20 yards or more), a figure that ranks 14th in the SEC through the season’s opening month.
Cook’s inability to create explosive throws has added to the questions that naturally linger around Missouri based on a soft early schedule that hasn’t included a game where the Tigers didn’t have a significant talent advantage over their opponent.
Drinkwitz defended his quarterback this week, telling ESPN St. Louis that while “there are some plays out there that we all wish we were making in the pass game, the outside noise relating to (Cook) right now is ridiculous.”
Drinkwitz is correct, of course, but Cook could quiet Mizzou doubters with an excellent performance against a shaky Texas A&M secondary. The Tigers enter Kyle Field having created explosive plays on only 9.3% of their completions this season. That number ranks a dismal 127th in the country and is worst in the SEC. The Aggies, meanwhile, have massive talent in their front 7 but rank 85th in passing plays of 10 yards or more allowed and 48th in completions of 30 yards or more allowed. If there’s a weakness for the Tigers to clearly exploit, it’s this matchup.
On the other sideline, the Aggies face the daunting challenge of playing a great defense for the first time since their Week 1 loss to Notre Dame.
The Aggies averaged just 3.6 yards per play against Notre Dame, which was the last time Texas A&M faced a defense ranked in the top 40 nationally.
Conner Weigman started the Notre Dame game, and was dire, completing just 12 passes and averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt.
Marcel Reed has started the past 3 games of Texas A&M’s 4-game winning streak, and he’s run the gamut from tremendous (261 total yards, 3 touchdowns produced at Florida) to middling (176 total yards, 3 sacks taken, 50% completion percentage against Arkansas). Weigman remains questionable to play against Missouri, which means the Aggies once again might decide or be forced to go with Reed.
Is Reed capable of playing a great game at home? He hasn’t yet, but to date, the Aggies have done enough to win with the redshirt freshman under center.
Missouri won’t give up many sustained drives. The Tigers rank 11th nationally in plays where they’ve allowed zero or fewer yards. They have also forced the 10th most 3-and-outs in college football. In other words, you better be able to create big plays to beat Missouri.
On the bright side for the Aggies, the lone flaw in Missouri’s defense to date has been producing sacks. The Tigers rank 80th this season and 63rd in quarterback pressures, per Stats Solutions. If the Aggies’ offensive line, which has looked better than advertised since appearing overwhelmed Week 1, can protect their QB, perhaps there’s a window for the Aggies to produce just enough in their passing game to provide balance and win.
Are the Aggies more talented on paper? Yes. Is Missouri the program with continuity, a head full of momentum and winning experience? Yes.
Saturday’s game has the makings of a coin flip, a classic matchup where the strengths and weaknesses of both teams produce few clear advantages and almost seem to offset. Perhaps that is why sportsbooks such as FanDuel have given a slight nod to the Aggies, who benefit from playing at home in one of the sport’s toughest environments.
Both teams have plenty to prove.
The Aggies want to show what a difference a year and new coaching staff can make and why a buyout — even a historic one — can be worth every oil-stained penny.
Missouri under Drinkwitz has thrived as the Show the World something team from the Show Me State when doubted against a quality opponent.
Something has to give.
What’s clear is that Saturday’s game is enormous, a game with big-time stakes in the SEC and national picture.
The loser leaves Kyle Field feeling more like a SEC and College Football Playoff afterthought.
The winner leaves Kyle Field a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, doubts quieter, destiny clearer.
Exactly the type of football game Missouri and Texas A&M signed up for when they joined the SEC together 12 years ago.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
