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After a month away from the friendly confines of The Swamp, Florida returns home Saturday when they take on Missouri.
It’s Homecoming in Gainesville, and the Gators will look to celebrate with a victory, one that can help wash away the bitter taste left in their mouths from last week’s 36-17 loss to rival Georgia in the Cocktail Party.
Meanwhile, Missouri limps into The Swamp fresh off one of the more crushing defeats in recent college football memory. The Tigers didn’t just blow an 11-point second-half lead against No. 9 Kentucky; they imploded, failing to muster a single first down on eight consecutive possessions before losing on the game’s final play, which came on an untimed down at the conclusion of an 80-plus-yard Kentucky drive. As a result, Mizzou remains winless in SEC play, having suffered two crushing defeats (South Carolina, Kentucky) in games where their win probability was more than 80 percent during the fourth quarter.
The Tigers are better than their 0-4 SEC record, but felling an angry Gators team coming off a loss in one of college football’s toughest environments will be a tall order for Barry Odom’s team.
Here are 10 bold predictions for Saturday’s game.
1. Drew Lock connects on a touchdown pass of 30 yards or more
Lock absolutely torched the Gators secondary a year ago, piling up 228 yards and 3 touchdown passes in a 45-16 Tigers rout.
That Florida secondary featured a healthy Marco Wilson and CJ Henderson and NFL nickel Duke Dawson, none of whom could do much to slow Lock and Mizzou. Henderson is battling an injury and is listed as questionable and Wilson is out for the season with a torn ACL, and the Gators’ depleted secondary will be challenged by Lock and a Missouri offense that ranks 20th nationally in S&P+ passing efficiency.
Lock has completed a pass of 30 yards or more in seven of Missouri’s eight games, and with All-SEC wideout Emanuel Hall finally set to return for the Tigers, Saturday will again feature a long Missouri pass — this time for a touchdown.
2. Hall will play — and have 100 yards receiving
This is a different Missouri passing game with Hall, the preseason All-SEC selection who hasn’t played since suffering an injury in Missouri’s thrilling win over Purdue in Week 3. To that point, Hall had more than 400 yards receiving in just 2½ games, 3 touchdowns and an average of 24 yards per catch.
Odom says Hall has “looked awesome” in practice this week, and he’ll look awesome in The Swamp working against Florida’s inexperienced corners as well.
3. Larry Rountree III will be held to less than 50 yards rushing
Rountree collected 3 touchdowns in Mizzou’s rout of Florida last season, and he paces a Tigers running game that ranks 50th nationally in rushing offense and 23rd in rushing efficiency offense.
The Tigers’ ground game averages 185 yards per game but has been hit or miss in conference play, piling up 286 yards against South Carolina but being limited to less than their season average in three other SEC contests.
Last week, the Tigers managed only 84 yards on 35 attempts at home against Kentucky, and Florida will key on Rountree in an effort to make Lock and Missouri one-dimensional.
4. But Damarea Crockett will bust two explosive runs (12 yards or more)
If Florida’s defense has a glaring weakness, it has been limiting explosive plays in the run game. The Gators rank 87th nationally in limiting explosive runs despite ranking 15th in limiting overall successful plays by opposing offenses.
In other words, the Gators bottle you up for the most part, but they will surrender big plays, and Crockett is a home run hitter, having hit multiple explosive runs in three of Missouri’s four SEC games (Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina).
He’ll do it again at least twice against the Gators.
5. Albert Okwuegbunam will score a Missouri touchdown
The preseason All-SEC tight end has put up some decent performances against SEC defenses, including a 9-reception, 81-yard effort against Georgia. But he hasn’t found the end zone in SEC play to date and is coming off his worst game of the year, a 2-reception, 20-yard outing against Kentucky.
Coverage issues plagued Florida’s linebackers a year ago and reared their head again at the Cocktail Party, especially on a late second-quarter Georgia drive where Jake Fromm connected on four consecutive throws to tight end Isaac Nauta to move the Dawgs into field-goal range.
Offensive coordinator Derek Dooley has doubtlessly seen that film, and he’ll put a package together to get Okwuegbunam loose against a Gators defense that has struggled to deal with opposing tight ends.
6. Jordan Scarlett will run for 75 yards
No defense in America has been better at limiting successful running plays than Missouri. The powerful running game of Kentucky tallied only 91 yards on 35 carries; No. 1 Alabama was limited to a very un-Crimson Tide-like 3.9 yards per carry. All told, Mizzou ranks No. 1 in rushing efficiency defense and 28th nationally in total rushing defense, allowing a stingy 3.55 yards per rush (third best in the SEC). Only once this year has an opposing running back run for more than 70 yards.
That was Elijah Holyfield, who managed 90 yards on 14 carries against the Tigers, proving that runners who have the ability to pick up yards after contact can be successful against Missouri’s talented front.
Scarlett is second in the SEC in yards gained after contact, and he’ll give Florida a big boost in the run game Saturday.
7. Feleipe Franks will bounce back with a 250-yard performance
If Franks can’t pass effectively against this Missouri defense, it doesn’t portend well for the remainder of the redshirt sophomore’s career.
Missouri’s pass defense is miserable, ranking 94th in pass efficiency defense and 115th in explosive plays (18 yards or more) surrendered in the passing game.
Compounding the problem, a defensive line that features All-SEC talents like Terry Beckner has only 14 sacks in eight games. The Tigers rank 126th in sack rate, worst in the Power 5.
They can’t cover, and they can’t rush the passer, which should mean a big game from Franks.
8. Van Jefferson will have 5 or more receptions and a touchdown
Jefferson was wide open on Florida’s opening play from scrimmage against Georgia — a perfectly drawn-up flea flicker that, well … you know what happened.
https://twitter.com/ftbeard_17/status/1056273878417174528
Jefferson ended the Georgia game with zero catches, his first game without a reception as a Gator.
Jefferson will bounce back in a big way Saturday, collecting at least 5 receptions and a touchdown.
9. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson will have a critical interception
One of Florida’s best tacklers and leaders, Gardner-Johnson has only 1 interception on the season after collecting 5 his first two seasons on campus. Gardner-Johnson has still been productive, and the junior is utilized by defensive coordinator Todd Grantham in a variety of ways, including as a run blitzing safety. His versatility is a big reason he’s currently projected by multiple outlets as a second-round draft pick in the 2019 draft.
He’ll make his mark Saturday in coverage.
Gardner-Johnson is masterful at reading quick-action passing concepts, especially those on the perimeter of the field, which are a staple of Missouri’s offense.
Expect him to bait Lock, who occasionally takes risks thanks to his big arm, into at least 1 interception.
10. Florida will score a first-quarter touchdown
Florida hasn’t scored a point in the first quarter in its past four games. On the season, the Gators have had five scoreless first quarters and six games in which they have failed to score a first-quarter touchdown.
That should have changed against Georgia, but Franks missed the throw. It will change Saturday, when the Gators find the end zone on their opening possession.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
