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Indiana vs. Ohio State is shaping up to be one of the most-impactful games of the year in the Big Ten.
Both the Hoosiers or Buckeyes would be in great shape to reach the Big Ten Championship Game with a victory on Saturday. This top-5 showdown also has significant College Football Playoff implications for both programs as well as other teams from around the country.
Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:
Indiana vs. Ohio State betting lines
Lines via DraftKings:
Spread: Indiana +12 (-108) | Ohio State -12 (-112)
Total: Over 51.1 points (-108) | Under 51.5 points (-112)
Looking to get in on the action this fall? Here’s all you need to know so you can pick the sports betting app that is is best for your needs!
Betting trends to know for Indiana
Indiana is…
- 8-2 against the spread this season
- 3-0 against the spread in road games this season
- 1-0 against the spread as an underdog this season
Betting trends to know for Ohio State
Ohio State is…
- 5-5 against the spread this season
- 22-13-1 against the spread as a home favorite in the Ryan Day era
Advanced Stats preview
Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing success rate
- Indiana rushing offense success rate: 49.8%
- Ohio State rushing defense success rate: 36.7%
Indiana has been a pretty good running team so far this season, although it’s far from the strength of this profile. IU has a tag-team duo of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton in the backfield. Both Ellison and Lawton have 9 touchdowns apiece so far this season, although Ellison has been the more efficient of the pair. Per Game on Paper, he has a 49% success rate this season compared to 38% for Lawton.
Ohio State’s defensive front is elite. The Buckeyes have a front 7 that includes players like Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloao, Sonny Styles, Cody Simon and Ty Hamilton, so it should be no surprise to see a rush defense success rate sub-37%. Ohio State doesn’t give up big plays, either. The Buckeyes are 17th nationally in rush defense EPA, according to Game on Paper. Ohio State averages 6.7 tackles for loss per game, which ranks 3rd in the Big Ten.
- Ohio State rushing offense success rate: 51.6
- Indiana rushing defense success rate: 34.8
Ohio State has a very strong rushing attack. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson form one of the best running back tandems in the country. However, this is is an Ohio State offensive line that is far from 100%. The Buckeyes lost star center Seth McLaughlin for the rest of the season earlier this week, meaning they will have to make further adjustments to an already-banged-up offensive line. How that impacts Ohio State’s running game against a stout IU front remains to be seen, but that’s a major question mark entering this game.
Indiana’s rush defense is excellent — maybe even more so than this figure would indicate. IU’s defense ranks 3rd nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed, per Game on Paper. And that defense held up last time out against Michigan, posting a success rate of under 30% against the Wolverines. Ohio State will provide a different type of challenge in the run game, but there’s reason to be optimistic that Indiana can hold up here against the Buckeyes.
Passing success rate
- Indiana passing offense success rate: 60.2%
- Ohio State passing defense success rate: 36.6%
Indiana’s passing game has been one of the biggest surprises of the entire college football season. Kurtis Rourke deserves genuine Heisman consideration for the numbers he’s put up so far this season — 2,410 yards, 24 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions while averaging a Big Ten-best 10.4 yards per attempt. The advanced numbers back it up too, of course, with a success rate north of 60%. It is worth noting that Indiana’s passing game wasn’t quite as good last time out against Michigan, which is probably the best defense the Hoosiers have faced this season. Against the Wolverines, IU’s passing success rate was just over 45%. That’s not bad by any means, but it’s not particularly close to elite, either.
Ohio State’s secondary is extremely strong on paper, but the Buckeyes haven’t been tested too often this season. Ohio State has faced Michigan State, Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue and Northwestern so far in Big Ten play. Of those teams, only Oregon and Penn State have passer efficiency ratings above the national average. Dillon Gabriel averaged over 10 yards per attempt against the Buckeyes. Drew Allar didn’t have nearly as much success, but Indiana’s passing offense has statistically been the Big Ten’s best this season. This matchup very well could decide whether or not IU has a chance to win this game.
- Ohio State passing offense success rate: 56%
- Indiana passing defense success rate: 38.8%
Will Howard hasn’t been perfect this season, but it’s hard to argue too much with the results. A 56% passing success rate is more than adequate for a team with national championship aspirations. As is an EPA-per-pass mark that ranks in the top 5 nationally, per Game on Paper. Howard is second only to Rourke in terms of passer efficiency rating amongst qualified Big Ten quarterbacks and he’s also been a threat to score on the ground (6 rushing touchdowns this season).
Indiana’s pass defense has held up well, especially considering the Hoosiers have often been playing with big leads this season. In addition to a sub-40% success rate allowed, Indiana is 18th nationally in EPA-per-pass allowed, according to Game on Paper. However, similar to Ohio State’s pass defense, the Hoosiers have not really been tested through the air yet this season in the way that they will be on Saturday. Washington is (statistically) the best passing offense IU has faced in 2024. The Huskies were able to move the ball through the air reasonably well in IU, but a couple of ill-timed interceptions flipped the game. Indiana is third in the Big Ten with 11 interceptions so far this season.
1 other key: What happens if Indiana gets behind?
Indiana’s dominance this season has been well-publicized. The Hoosiers didn’t trail in any game until falling behind 10-0 against Michigan State a few weeks ago, and then responded with 47 unanswered against the Spartans. That front-running style has worked for Indiana up to this point, but it’s worth wondering what will happen to Indiana’s offense if it needs to play catch-up.
As mentioned above, Indiana’s passing offense has been extremely strong this season from an efficiency standpoint. But the Hoosiers don’t throw it much, particularly for an elite offense. Indiana has a pass play rate of 44%, which is 101st nationally out of 134 FBS teams. If Indiana gets behind by multiple scores in the second half, can the Hoosiers scale-up their passing attack to a high-enough volume while maintaining their usual efficiency?
The other problem could be whether or not Rourke can withstand the significant pressure that will come if the Buckeyes are able to turn Indiana into a pass-first offense. According to Pro Football Focus, Rourke has only attempted 36 passes under pressure so far this season. That’s pretty low volume, but it’s worth noting that his results under pressure have been excellent: 18-of-36 for 378 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. But again, it will be about continuing that efficiency at a larger volume against the toughest defense Indiana has faced this season. If Rourke can do that, there’s every reason to believe the Hoosiers will be competitive in Columbus.
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
