Monday Down South: In a wide-open Playoff field, Georgia will not go quietly

Takeaways, trends and technicalities from Week 12 in the SEC.

What does a national championship team look like? In a constantly evolving sport, the answer rarely stays the same for long, and in the era of the 12-team Playoff it might be in the process of undergoing another sea change.

Historically, the hallmark of a champion is consistency — showing up week-in, week-out, winning ugly when necessary, always staying one step ahead of the loss that could abruptly derail the entire campaign. By that light, the current standard bearer is team atop the polls, Oregon: The 11-0 Ducks are the only preseason contenders who have remained perfect, entrenching themselves at No. 1 in a Week 7 win over Ohio State and earning nearly every first-place vote in both the AP and Coaches’ polls in the ensuing weeks. In a chaotic, wide-open year in the polls, Oregon has represented staying power. And in another era, that would be a convincing enough reason to make them frontrunners to go all the way.

But the expanded Playoff field has already begun to rewire the way we think about the question. A pristine résumé is one thing; a high enough ceiling to survive multiple rounds against top-shelf competition is another. On that front, the Ducks don’t inspire quite as much confidence. They’re not particularly dominant on paper, or in any one area. They’re survivors.

Their big validating win over the Buckeyes came by a single point, at home; their only other win over a plausible CFP outfit, a 37-34 escape against Boise State in Week 2, was decided on a last-second field goal. On Saturday, they narrowly survived an upset bid against a thoroughly mediocre version of Wisconsin, rallying to win 16-13 in a game they trailed in the 4th quarter.

Although Oregon is a virtual lock to make the Playoff, boasting a 99.6% chance of making the cut according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, it’s a relatively distant threat to win it all at just 7.3%, coming in behind Texas, Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia. (Not coincidentally, the 4 teams with the nation’s most talented rosters, per 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite.) A sampling of advanced metrics finds the Ducks lading at No. 5 in SP+, No. 7 according to Jeff Sagarin and No. 8 per FPI — well within the range of a potential champ, but a far cry from the unanimous No. 1 reflected in the traditional polls.

In fact, the absence of a consensus Team of Destiny is emerging as the season’s most compelling theme. Expansion means more teams on the Playoff radar, yes, not all of them convincing as actual threats to take home the crown. But it also means that the kind of volatile, high-upside team that in the past would have been cast out of the championship orbit for dropping a game or 2 it shouldn’t have now has to be taken seriously every time it threatens to get its act together.

For anyone who’d stopped taking Georgia seriously as national contenders, Saturday night’s must-have, come-from-behind, 31-17 win over Tennessee was a reminder of the new world. A week ago, the Dawgs looked out of sync and overwhelmed in a 28-10 beatdown at Ole Miss, a loss that in any previous season would have definitively ended their pursuit of anything they considered worth winning.

With 2 strikes in the loss column and their backs against the wall, the Dawgs’ methodical trouncing of the Vols was arguably the first time all season — certainly since their season-opening, 34-3 romp over Clemson — that their potential was on full display against an opponent with serious CFP aspirations off its own. After falling behind 10-0 in the first quarter, the Bulldogs outscored Tennessee 31-7 the rest of the way, turning in their most complete game to date on both sides of the ball. QB Carson Beck, the goat of the midseason slump, delivered the best game of this career, finishing with a career-high 98.0 QBR rating, 3 total touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) and zero sacks or interceptions.

Taken with Alabama’s season-saving, 42-13 thrashing of LSU in Week 11, it’s tempting to wave away the inconsistency and occasionally outright sloppiness that had defined much of both teams’ seasons since their epic shootout in Tuscaloosa in late September.

Jalen Milroe spent the next month regressing into some of his worst habits as a fledgling starter while Beck turned into a walking interception machine even as Georgia continued to win in underwhelming (for them) fashion. In short order, they have put their best selves on display over the past 2 weeks and put a new shine on a campaign that was in danger of slipping away.

We’ll see soon enough whether the renewed optimism is the beginning of a sustained surge into the postseason or merely the latest spike in a season of peaks and valleys. But as ever, let there be no doubt that on any given Saturday the Dogs’ peak still stacks up against anyone’s in the college game.

Tiebreaker breakdown

We’re down to a dozen remaining SEC conference games over the next 2 weeks, which by my reckoning comes out to just shy of 4,100 possible outcomes. You can contemplate each and every last one of them yourself using the handy SEC Tiebreaker Calculator, which will do the math for any given scenario you can come up with according to the SEC’s official tiebreaker procedure. Of course, some outcomes are a lot more likely than others. As the field continues to thin out the possibilities are not as inscrutable as meets the eye.

Yes, the tiebreaker language is convoluted, and there is a logjam in the conference standings. With Tennessee’s loss at Georgia, at least 1 of the 2 tickets to the SEC Championship Game is guaranteed to go to a team with 2 conference losses, a group that currently features Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee; the loser of Texas/Texas A&M on Nov. 30 will join the pool, adding another variable to the process. Assuming the chalk holds, that leaves 5 teams vying for 1 slot in Atlanta opposite the UT/A&M winner. Big chaos, right? Eh, not exactly. Punch enough scenarios into the calculator — I personally ran 100 combinations through the system — and some pretty clear patterns emerge:

3 teams control their fate: Texas, Texas A&M and Alabama. The ‘Horns and Aggies are tied atop the standings at 5-1 apiece and are both favored to take care of business in Week 13 against Kentucky and Auburn, respectively, setting up a winner-take-all reunion in Week 14 for sole possession of first place at the end of the regular season. Straightforward enough.

Bama’s case, on the other hand, comes down to the tiebreakers, all of which (surprise!) align in the Crimson Tide’s favor: In every scenario that has them beating Oklahoma and Auburn to finish 6-2, they punch their ticket based on some combination of opponent win percentage and head-to-head priority over Georgia. I’m not gonna break out the spreadsheet here, but long story short: If the Tide win, they’re in.

Let’s say for the sake of keeping it simple that the chalk holds and all 12 remaining games are won by the higher-ranked team or the betting favorite. That would look like this:

Flip the Texas/Texas A&M result to replace the Longhorns in the Championship Game with the Aggies; the basic outline holds. (There are certain circumstances under which A&M could even rebound from a loss at Auburn to make the cut, but they all require Bama to lose; no other team in the conference has any margin for error whatsoever.) Those 3 teams are not scoreboard watching or looking over their shoulder at anyone else.

Georgia is on deck. The hay is in the barn for the Dawgs, who wrapped up conference play at 6-2. Now they wait. They are first in the tiebreaker queue if Alabama eats it against Oklahoma or Auburn; they could also potentially replace Texas or A&M if either side manages to both a) Lose this weekend, and b) Follow up that loss with a head-to-head triumph in College Station, in that order. That means quietly rooting for Auburn, Oklahoma, and/or Kentucky while watching from a distance against UMass.

Tennessee and Ole Miss shouldn’t hold their breath. The Vols and Rebels are still mathematically alive, if things get weird, but we’re talking very weird here. Despite their big head-to-head wins over Alabama and Georgia, respectively, there is no path that gives either a chance to flex that advantage under the tiebreaker format. Instead, they’re banking on Bama, Texas and Texas A&M all dropping at least 1 game apiece, which would necessitate a couple of major upsets by teams from the bottom of the standings any way you slice it. Consider this typical path for Tennessee, which requires ambushes by the likes of Auburn and Kentucky:

Even with the exact right combination of long-shot upsets falling into Tennessee’s lap, that path is still alarmingly narrow. Tweak just a couple of those results — flip Oklahoma/LSU to the Sooners, and Texas/Texas A&M to the Aggies — and just like that the advantage shifts to Ole Miss:

But by the time you’re down to toggling between just-so scenarios that fall apart if even one of your designated miracles fails to fall into place, you’re grasping at straws.

The real question for teams on the bubble: Is it better to miss the conference title game altogether than risk losing it? That’s a question the Playoff Selection Committee needs to consider very carefully before somebody loses a 3rd game in the conference championship.

Superlatives

The week’s best individual performances.

1. Georgia QB Carson Beck. After a rough month, Beck was in the zone against Tennessee, shredding the Vols’ vastly improved defense for 347 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25-of-40 passing. (He added another touchdown as a runner to put the game out of reach in the 4th quarter — his first rushing TD of the year — one of several productive scrambles on the night from a guy who is hardly considered a dangerous runner.) It’s much too late to revive his flagging Heisman campaign, and it’s going to take more than one big game to reverse his flagging NFL Draft stock. But with Georgia’s season on the line in a marquee game, he had the juice.

2. Florida DL Tyreak Sapp and Caleb Banks. Out of nowhere, Florida’s previously nondescript defensive front dominated LSU’s touted o-line in a badly needed, 27-16 win. Sapp was stellar against the run, finishing with 4 tackles for loss and 7 stops, defined by Pro Football Focus as a tackle that represent a “failure” for he offense; meanwhile, Banks led the pass rush, generating 7 QB pressures, multiple hits, and a forced fumble. As a team, the Gators sacked LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier more times on Saturday (7) that he’d been sacked in his first nine games this season combined (6).

3. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers. The Gamecocks are on a 4-game winning streak and their big, emerging redshirt freshman QB is a big, emerging reason. Sellers’ star has been on the rise for a few weeks, and his 353-yard, 5-touchdown effort in a 34-30 win over Missouri had all the makings of a full-fledged breakthrough. Besides the raw stats, he also turned in season highs for passer rating (217.2) and QBR (86.2) while leading 2 go-ahead touchdown drives in the 4th quarter.

4. Texas DB Jahdae Barron. Barron led a typically sweltering effort by Texas’ defense in a 20-10 win at Arkansas, showing up all over the field. In coverage, he can down with a tip-drill interception and broke up another pass; as an occasional pass rusher, he generated 3 QB pressures and a sack. His 6 total tackles led the team.

5. Florida WR Elijhah Badger. Badger was already established as freshman QB DJ Lagway’s favorite target, but he took it to another level in the Gators’ win over LSU, hauling in 6 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets on a surprisingly intense afternoon in The Swamp. (Seriously, for a couple of teams that were supposed to be resigned to playing out the string on a disappointing season, the Gators and Tigers got after it.) In the 3 games this season that Lagway has started and finished, Badger has 392 yards on 43.6 yards per catch.

Honorable Mention: Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson, whose 101 rushing yards against Georgia put him over the century mark for the 9th time in 10 games this season. … Missouri RB Nate Noel, who ran for 150 yards and a touchdown in a losing effort at South Carolina. … Missouri edge Johnny Walker Jr., who generated 8 QB pressures, 2 TFLs and a forced fumble against the Gamecocks. … South Carolina DL TJ Sanders, who had 6 QB pressures and a sack in the Gamecocks’ win over Mizzou. … Texas DL Alfred Collins, whose 7 tackles against Arkansas included 2 TFLs and a forced fumble. … Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed, who accounted for 309 total yards and 3 touchdowns in the Aggies’ 38-3 romp over New Mexico State. … Alabama QB Jalen Milroe, who accounted for 209 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 6 possessions in a 52-7 blowout over Mercer. … Auburn WRs KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Cameron Coleman, who combined for 205 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 48-14 win over UL-Monroe. … And Florida punter Jeremy Crawshaw, who dropped all 4 of his punts against LSU inside the Tigers’ 20-yard line.

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The scoring system for players honored in Superlatives awards 8 points for the week’s top player, 6 for 2nd, 5 for 3rd, 4 for 4th, 3 for 5th and 1 for honorable mention, because how honorable is it really if it doesn’t come with any points? Standings are updated weekly with the top 10 players for the season to date.

Catch of the Year of the Week

Cam Coleman is insane!! #AuburnFootball #SECNetwork

— Ben Larimore (@larimore-ben.bsky.social) 2024-11-16T20:54:17.614Z

SEC Power Rankings

Updating the food chain.

1. Texas (9-1). … | Last Week: 1 ⬌

2. Alabama (8-2). | Last Week: 3 ⬆

3. Ole Miss (8-2). | Last Week: 4 ⬆

4. Georgia (8-2). | Last Week: 5 ⬆

5. Tennessee (8-2). | Last Week: 2 ⬇

6. South Carolina (7–3). | Last Week: 8 ⬆

7. Texas A&M (8–2). | Last Week: 6 ⬇

8. Missouri (7-3). | Last Week: 9 ⬆

9. LSU (6-4). | Last Week: 7 ⬇

10. Vanderbilt (6-4). | Last Week: 10 ⬌

11. Florida (5-5). | Last Week: 13 ⬆

12. Arkansas (5-5). | Last Week: 11 ⬇

13. Oklahoma (5-5). | Last Week: 12 ⬇

14. Auburn (4-6). | Last Week: 14 ⬌

15. Kentucky (4-6). | Last Week: 15 ⬌

16. Mississippi State (2-8). | Last Week: 16 ⬌

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.