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It’s not what I think. It’s what I think the selection committee thinks.
Those are different things. If I were on the selection committee, Texas and Penn State wouldn’t be ranked as high as they are, and a Miami team that’s best win is against 6-4 Louisville would be behind some 2-loss teams.
But it’s not what I think. It’s what I think the selection committee thinks.
So here’s what I think the selection committee will roll with Tuesday night when they reveal the 3rd set of College Football Playoff rankings:
12. Boise State
Quietly, pulling away from a 6-win San Jose State squad was among the more impressive things that Boise State has done this year. Also quietly, Boise State has 2 wins against teams that are currently in the AP Top 25 (No. 23 UNLV and No. 25 Washington State). That, plus the 3-point loss at Oregon, is what’ll allow Boise State to have a leg to stand on in the “who should be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team” debate. Plus: Ashton Jeanty.
11. Tennessee
Here’s the thing, Vols fans. I know the head-to-head against Alabama suggests that the Vols should be ranked higher. But then apply that logic elsewhere. It doesn’t work. We agree that Georgia should be ranked ahead of Tennessee, right? Well, Alabama beat Georgia, too. It’s why the head-to-head factor won’t be a deal-breaker. Instead, the selection committee will default to quality wins. The Alabama victory is Tennessee’s lone win against a bowl-eligible team. That’ll be held against the Vols.
10. Georgia
The upside of Georgia’s ranking will be capped by how recently it got walloped by Ole Miss. They’re both 2-loss teams (and they both struggled with Kentucky), but beating Tennessee will certainly improve the floor of UGA’s ranking. That’s the good news. The other good news is that UGA has 3 wins against teams that are in the AP Top 25, and all of them were by double digits. The Dawgs have an excellent 2-loss résumé.
9. Ole Miss
Beating Georgia the way Ole Miss did will elevate the floor of that ranking. It probably helped Ole Miss that Georgia beat Tennessee by a couple of touchdowns because it improved that win instead of making it seem like UGA was in a free fall. It also helped Ole Miss that South Carolina beat its third consecutive AP Top 25 team. Beating the Gamecocks 27-3 at Williams-Brice is suddenly turning into one of the more impressive wins of the season. That’ll keep Ole Miss in solid standing as long as it avoids that third loss.
8. Alabama
Alabama’s résumé probably took a slight hit by LSU and Mizzou losing to fall out of the AP Top 25, but weirdly, Georgia pulling away from Tennessee can be spun in the Tide’s favor. Not a single FBS team that Alabama faced has a losing record. If Alabama can take care of business the next 2 weeks, it’ll be in position to either host a home Playoff game or make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship with a first-round bye up for grabs.
7. Miami
Again, Miami’s best win according to the AP Poll is against a 4-loss Louisville squad that’s 5th in the “receiving votes” category. If you’re undefeated, that’s fine. If you’re not undefeated, that’s worth digging into more. The selection committee made a surprising move by only dropping the Canes 5 spots to No. 9. The “eye test” that Miami passes is basically that Cam Ward is awesome and possibly the best quarterback in the sport this year. That’ll continue to give Mario Cristobal’s program the benefit of the doubt with the selection committee.
6. Notre Dame
If you’re still upset about Notre Dame’s ranking because of the Northern Illinois loss, I hear you. But the Irish are on an 8-game winning streak in which Louisville was the only team that even stayed within 2 scores. Including the win at A&M, which has aged well, the Irish have 8 victories by double digits. That defense is among the nation’s best and an emerging Riley Leonard shook off that slow start. Marcus Freeman’s team looks like it’s 2 wins away from earning a Playoff bid.
5. Indiana
How did Indiana’s résumé age during the bye week? “Insignificantly.” Washington is the only team IU played that has a winning record, and that’s a 6-5 team. In other words, Ohio State will be the only thing close to a true quality win that IU can obtain unless it gets into the Big Ten Championship. Fair or not, the selection committee will be closely dialed into how competitive that game feels because it could be the type of game that IU gets slotted into as an at-large team.
4. Penn State
Penn State and Texas are living in parallel universes. Each week, the selection committee essentially throws out the résumé and defaults to “we just think they’re better than other 1-loss or undefeated teams.” At this point, there’s no use in fighting it. At least Illinois getting back into the AP Top 25 means that the Lions have a win vs. a ranked foe. Penn State had better not squander this favorable path with a loss at Minnesota.
3. Texas
See “Penn State.” Or just see the part where the selection committee ranked Texas in the top 5 in the first 2 Playoff polls even though Texas’ lone victories against teams with a winning record came against Colorado State and Vandy. Yes, that’ll change in a couple of weeks at Texas A&M, but for now, just remember that the selection committee clearly values Texas in ways that the strength of schedule doesn’t.
2. Ohio State
What’s at stake for Ohio State is obvious. If it can get past Indiana and Michigan, a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship would likely mean both teams are already into the Playoff. That’s not a given. What is a given is that Ohio State will be at No. 2 after pounding Northwestern at Wrigley Field.
1. Oregon
My buddy texted me in the middle of Oregon’s nail-biter win at Wisconsin and asked a fascinating question — would the Ducks stay at No. 1 if they lost? It’s an interesting question because it would still have the head-to-head against Ohio State and with all of those aforementioned résumé questions about Penn State and Texas, it’s hard to imagine the selection committee rewarding them when Oregon still has 3 wins against the current AP Top 25. We didn’t find that out. The only threat to Oregon’s No. 1 ranking might be if Indiana beats Ohio State in Columbus. What a sentence that is.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
