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O’Gara: The SEC hurt its argument for Playoff bids with that opening weekend showing
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A prime opportunity was available for the SEC’s taking. Five matchups against Core 4 teams meant that the SEC had something sitting on the table in the first weekend of the 12-team Playoff era.
That is, a chance to distance itself from the pack.
The SEC had the most noteworthy nonconference slate of the weekend with matchups against 4 preseason AP Top 25 squads (No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 14 Clemson, No. 19 Miami and No. 23 USC). Yes, the 12-team Playoff is more inclusive. Yes, things like that still matter. If anything, it means more now (pun intended) for the selection committee, which could have to determine if a 9-3 SEC team is more Playoff-worthy than a 10-2 ACC team.
So no, the SEC didn’t help that cause with its Week 1 showing. A 2-3 mark in those matchups was more of a step back than a step forward.
Relax, Georgia/Vandy fans. I’m not saying what you did by beating ACC contenders was useless.
But let’s remember that Georgia was a double-digit favorite against a Clemson team that continues to distance itself from its latter half of the 2010s dominance. Let’s also remember that Georgia is the No. 1 team in America with 2 titles in the last 3 seasons. A UGA beatdown of a non-SEC team — all of whom fell short against the Dawgs since the 2018 Sugar Bowl against Texas — doesn’t move the needle for the conference. It just reminds us all that Georgia is the standard in the sport.
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And don’t tell appointment viewing Vandy quarterback Diego Pavia this, but as great as that win was for Clark Lea, the Playoff discussion was more about how Virginia Tech wasn’t ready to be a dark-horse ACC title winner like some predicted.
Georgia and Vandy are at opposite ends of the SEC spectrum. That’s why they won’t help the SEC’s Playoff bid cause.
What would’ve helped that cause? Oh, I don’t know. Maybe A&M beating Notre Dame could’ve shifted one of those at-large berths. Perhaps Florida having a pulse against Miami (FL) could’ve moved the needle. Dare I say, LSU actually winning a season-opening game would’ve helped the conference.
Swing and a miss.
Those 3 whiffs didn’t strike the SEC out from getting several Playoff bids, but it certainly put a damper on the conference’s opening weekend. Instead of having unique flexes against 3 different Playoff-hopeful entities — that means the ACC, Big Ten and independent bid-stealer Notre Dame — the SEC became the easiest conference to dunk on.
But this isn’t about what the anti-SEC crowd is saying on Twitter. This is about the results.
No result was more significant for the SEC’s Playoff discussion than A&M struggling down the stretch against Notre Dame. Why? It’s not so much about the Aggies, who only hit 9 regular-season wins twice in the 21st century and don’t figure to do so with a Year 1 head coach. It’s about the Irish, who now have a remaining schedule that includes:
- A) 2 more true road games
- B) No games vs. preseason AP Top 25 teams until November
- C) 2 games vs. teams who won 8 regular season games in 2023
- D) 4 combined games vs. MAC schools and service academies
- E) All the above
It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
The Miami cancelation changed the Irish’s path to the Playoff in a significant way. Nobody wants to accept this, but an 11-1 Notre Dame team is making the 12-team Playoff without much thought. Shoot, even a 10-2 Irish team without a conference title to play in could be in position to make the field. A&M had a chance to test that. Instead, the Aggies offense struggled in every facet against the Al Golden/Marcus Freeman defense. That’s what allowed the Irish to beat a ranked SEC team on the road for the first time since 2004 (that was against No. 9 Tennessee).
Notre Dame did what it set out to do in Week 1 — go on the road and win the type of game that eluded the program for most of the 21st century.
You could say the same thing about Miami (FL). Finally, the Canes showed that an offseason of hype was warranted. It wasn’t just that they beat a 5-win Florida team. It was how the Canes did that. By day’s end, the Cam Ward-led Canes looked how one would think the ACC favorite would look. Picture if the alternative scenario had played out. If Florida had prevailed as it did in the 2022 season opener against Utah, 3 of the 4 ACC preseason contenders would’ve lost to SEC teams while the other preseason ACC contender, Florida State, was already staring at an 0-1 start.
Florida could’ve poured cold water all over the ACC fire. Instead, the Gators turned up the heat on themselves with a dreadful showing while Miami did its best Georgia imitation.
LSU, on the other hand, imitated … itself. At least in season-openers.
While you could argue that LSU and USC were leading parallel lives in many ways — Year 3 coaches who left established programs, replacing Heisman Trophy QBs with 4th-year guys who stuck around, splashy DC hires, etc. — think about this. Who was considered more likely to make the Playoff — LSU or USC? Definitely LSU. All the talk with USC was that it would struggle in its first year in the Big Ten because it didn’t play with enough physicality. The Trojans didn’t lack that on Sunday night in Las Vegas. Lincoln Riley instead won as an underdog against an SEC team, which did more to change his reputation than any game at USC so far.
And also remember, that’s a nice little feather in the Big Ten’s hat. For a conference that lacks marquee nonconference games because it has a 9-game conference schedule, that felt significant. Michigan beating Texas as a touchdown underdog would shift that Big Ten-SEC narrative into overdrive.
For now, though, let’s call it like it is. The only SEC-wide narrative after Week 1 was that it did more to hurt than help its Playoff arguments.
Well, not you, Vandy. You’re the standard now.
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Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
