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Paul Finebaum gauges CFP expectations for Ole Miss, Mizzou entering 2024
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Paul Finebaum has set his expectations for a pair of SEC teams looking for a breakthrough season this fall. Those teams are Ole Miss and Mizzou with both teams eying their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance as the field expands to 12 teams.
Finebaum was asked about those 2 programs during his Monday morning appearance on “McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning,” and his expectations for Lane Kiffin’s program are a bit more drastic. Considering the past few seasons Ole Miss has had and the offseason for the program, Finebaum believes it will be an “utter failure” if Kiffin doesn’t make the Playoff this fall.
“It will be a failure. This is what he has been building towards, this is what he has been talking about. A couple of years ago things did not look great from an NIL standpoint. He was able to reverse that, he aced the portal, everyone knows what he got this year. He’s got one of the more experienced QBs in the league and around the country,” explained Finebaum. “There’s no sugar-coating it, it would be a complete and utter failure if Ole Miss didn’t make the Playoff.”
As for Eli Drinkwitz’s program, Finebaum felt Mizzou actually overachieved a bit in 2023, leading him to be a bit more cautious in his expectations for the Tigers.
“I’m not quite as insistent (that Mizzou makes the Playoff). I feel like they really overperformed last year. You could argue that Missouri let a game get away against LSU. But beyond that, I felt like they came up really throwing aces a lot of times,” Finebaum said. “They won that Kansas State game, they really survived… I think they are in Playoff contention, I’m just not as confident.”
Finebaum also believes anyone projecting 5-6 SEC teams to reach the Playoff is not truly looking at things objectively. He described such a scenario as “very hard to pull off,” even with a 12-team field in play.
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Examining the odds
Neither team is the favorite to win the SEC this fall, though Ole Miss has the 3rd-best odds at FanDuel with the Rebels listed at +700 behind Georgia (+190) and Texas (+310). However, the added benefit of the expanded Playoff means both programs can make a run without winning the SEC outright.
As for Ole Miss, DraftKings has the regular-season win total set at 9.5, and the odds for the over are listed at -115. Mizzou’s win total is also set at 9.5, but the over 9.5 is listed at +125 while the under is -145.
So, if neither program wins the SEC, what will it take to get into the Playoff? Even with 12 spots in play, the safest bet is reaching a record of at least 10-2, but the performance of the rest of the SEC will play a key role.
With Texas and Georgia the favorites to win the conference in Atlanta, those 2 teams will be penciled into the CFP in the preseason. If that scenario plays out, it’s likely the SEC will only have 1 or 2 other spots up for grabs.
Based on the odds, Ole Miss is definitely expected to compete for that 3rd-place spot in the SEC. As for Mizzou, anything can happen, but the Tigers will need some upsets to make noise for the Playoff.
Paul Harvey lives in Atlanta and covers SEC football.
