Predicting every SEC team’s final record after Week 2: Texas is up, Kentucky and Auburn are down

SEC Week 2 ran the usual gamut. Easy wins, impressive wins, and a few depressing losses all helped clear up the SEC picture. As usual, here’s the impressions of how each SEC team looks likely to finish its season based on 2 weeks.

(To respond to an issue raised by readers after Week 1, no, this column does not literally project each game at this early point in the season. As the discussion reveals, the process is more about seeing where a team stands and projecting a likely number of wins and losses than picking each game. Later in the season, the forecast will zero in on specific games.)

Georgia: 12-0 (2-0, beat Tennessee Tech 48-3)

Unsurprisingly, there’s no reason to move UGA off its current course. Some of the Dawgs’ road games are brutal and there are certainly chances at a loss. But predicting Georgia losses doesn’t make a ton of sense right now. Can it happen? Sure. But predict it? Nah.

Texas: 11-1 (2-0, beat No. 10 Michigan 31-12)

Texas looked the part of the nation’s No. 3 team as they decimated Michigan easily. A couple of significant points — this isn’t a great Michigan team, and certainly isn’t the 10th-best in the nation. More than its performance, which was solid, the impressive thing for Texas is its composure. Few teams come into The Big House and play with the degree of comfort that the Horns mustered. It’s that edge that gets them the predicted boost to 11-1 here. Nobody on the schedule other than Georgia could equal that.

Ole Miss: 10-2 (2-0, beat Middle Tennessee State 52-3)

After 2 weeks of mauling awful teams, the offense’s precision has been amazing. But it’s one thing to beat up on Furman and MTSU. Until we see a competitive opponent for the Rebels, which is looking like perhaps Oct. 12 against LSU, it’s hard to evaluate this team. An 11-1 prediction would not be unreasonable, but for the moment, the Rebs remain here.

Missouri: 10-2 (2-0, beat Buffalo 38-0)

Not unlike Ole Miss, there’s not a ton to learn in games like this. And not unlike Ole Miss, the Tigers probably won’t see a competitive game until well into October. The Missouri schedule shapes up very favorably. An 11-1 projection for Mizzou wouldn’t be ridiculous, but for now, until they play a legitimate opponent, we’ll stick at 10-2.

Alabama: 9-3 (2-0, beat South Florida 42-16)

The big play finally appeared late for Bama and helped the dispatch South Florida, in a game that was much, much closer than the final score would indicate. But so far, there’s still very real reasons to question Kalen DeBoer’s offense. The next 2 games — at Wisconsin and then at home against Georgia — will tell the story. Win those 2 games, Bama could get a 12-0 projection. But for the moment, a tough schedule and a ho-hum performance leaves the Tide trending down.

Tennessee: 9-3 (2-0, beat No. 24 NC State 51-10)

A 10-2 projection could well have been in order. But Tennessee’s schedule remains legitimately challenging and NC State probably was overrated, anyway. The Week 4 game at Oklahoma is a chance to make a big statement. Based solely off performance so far, UT would be at 10-2 or 11-1 in projections… but who you play (and when) does matter.

LSU: 9-3 (1-1, beat Nicholls 44-21)

For instance, LSU hasn’t been nearly as impressive as Tennessee. But the Tigers dodge Georgia entirely and get home games with Ole Miss and Bama. LSU’s schedule does get significantly tougher late, but the Tigers should be able to have a comfortably good season and could still surprise by reaching even higher.

Oklahoma: 7-5 (2-0, beat Houston 16-12)

Oklahoma’s offense struggled greatly, picking up just 249 yards, but it did just enough right to win. That said, Oklahoma’s schedule looks pretty brutal. A team that struggles to move the ball will have to improve significantly to handle Tennessee, Texas and Ole Miss by the end of October. As things stand, the Sept. 21 home game with Tennessee looks big.

Texas A&M: 7-5 (1-1, beat McNeese 52-10)

Texas A&M looked impressive in rushing for 333 yards in Week 2. The rest of the September games (at Florida, Bowling Green, and a neutral-site game with Arkansas) remain big. Win out and an 8-4 projection could be in order. But the later schedule includes Mizzou, LSU and Texas.

Auburn: 6-6 (1-1, lost to Cal 21-14)

Remember those 73 points in Week 1? Didn’t end up meaning much. Payton Thorne threw 4 picks in Week 2 and an electric ground attack settled in at 4.0 yards per carry. Auburn isn’t as bad as it played against Cal, but they look like a 6-6 team right now.

South Carolina: 6-6 (2-0, beat Kentucky 31-6)

Carolina’s offense was reasonable and their defense dominated Kentucky. Grabbing the wins early helps, because LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama are within the next 4 opponents. If Carolina can hold it together until November, games with Vandy and Wofford can help them get bowl eligible.

Arkansas: 5-7 (1-1, lost to Oklahoma State 39-31)

Arkansas played over its head for much of the game with OSU, but came up shy of the upset. That’s a big deal because a check of the Arkansas schedule looks likely to yield only 5 wins and OSU might have been their best shot at a 6th win. Still, gutty game and Taylen Green’s 416 yards passing is a good sign moving forward for the Hogs, who could easily get a bowl projection if they win at Auburn later this month.

Florida: 4-8 (1-1, beat Samford 45-7)

This was a solid performance by the Gators, but their schedule just still doesn’t have a ton of winnable games. At Mississippi State and home against Kentucky both look plausible, but it’s hard to project the Gators above 4-8 until they start beating better teams, like, say, Texas A&M in Week 3.

Kentucky: 4-8 (1-1, lost to South Carolina 31-6)

The Kentucky team that looked smooth and capable offensively in Week 1 fell off the face of the Earth. Kentucky completed 6 passes while throwing for 44 yards against Carolina. It’s early and while this game theoretically could be a fluke, it looked pretty serious for Kentucky.

Vanderbilt: 4-8 (2-0, beat Alcorn State 55-0)

Vandy continues to impress, but there are 2 big problems: 39 carries in 2 games for Diego Pavia is too many. Also, its SEC schedule is still brutal. The winnable games (Kentucky, Auburn) are on the road.

Mississippi State: 4-8 (1-1, lost to Arizona State 30-23)

State got exposed in the desert. State couldn’t run the ball or stop the run — 2 issues that don’t bode well in the SEC. Two easy nonconference wins await, but the SEC will be tough sledding. The final 3 games against Tennessee, Mizzou and Ole Miss don’t look like much fun.

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.