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Predicting every SEC team’s final record after Week 7: Maybe Texas really is that good
By Joe Cox
Published:
Week 7 of the 2024 college football season might be remembered less for what happened than what kinda, sorta, almost happened. South Carolina went toe to toe with Alabama, and Mississippi State put up 31 points on Georgia. Neither resulted in an Earth-shattering upset, but it’s certainly time to reassess the top of the SEC.
The good news is that here is the prediction department, we’re reassessing the entire league every week. So here’s how we project the squads of the SEC to finish the 2024 season.
Texas (12-0, 6-0 after 34-3 win over Oklahoma)
Yep, we’ll go there. Six games into the Texas in the SEC experiment, the Kool-Aid is being consumed. The Horns genuinely look like the best team in the SEC and could run the table. If Georgia gave up 31 to Mississippi State’s backup QB, it’s hard to pick them to best Texas.
Georgia (10-2, 5-1 after 41-31 win over Mississippi State)
That was concerning. At the end of the day, Georgia doesn’t get moved here. Ole Miss and Tennessee didn’t exactly shine this week, either. Texas looks like a loss for Georgia, but a 10-2 mark is still very much Playoff-worthy.
LSU (10-2, 5-1 after 29-26 win over Ole Miss)
There we go — last week, we billed the LSU/Ole Miss game as a Playoff contender/pretender divide, and it probably was. The Tigers still play Alabama as well as A&M and Oklahoma, but they’ve earned their way into the Playoff mix at this moment in time. Even another loss probably won’t hurt.
Ole Miss (9-3, 5-2 after 29-26 loss to LSU)
And, on the other side, Ole Miss probably isn’t legitimate. That Kentucky loss didn’t get any more shine this week, and the Rebels don’t seem to have enough offensive punch to get past Georgia, which would account for a third loss. At the end of the day, the Kentucky game probably keeps LSU out of the Playoff.
Alabama (9-3, 5-1 after 27-25 win over South Carolina)
Well, it was a win. But the issues from a week ago are very much real. Picking a 4-2 run the rest of the way feels pretty charitable for a team that has struggled with Carolina and lost to Vandy in the past 2 weeks. As awful as that game was, this game felt even more grim in establishing the gap between the Saban Era and everything to come.
Tennessee (9-3, 5-1 after 23-17 OT win over Florida)
The Vols fit neatly next to Ole Miss and Alabama. They’re all struggling to score enough points and have taken bad losses to teams below their talent level. It’s entirely possible that 1 of these teams ends up sneaking into the Playoff, but at this point, none of the 3 really stands ahead of the others.
Missouri (9-3, 5-1 after 45-3 win over UMass)
It’s hard to put a ton of trust in a team that got absolutely dominated in their only competitive matchup of the season. The Tigers, as opposed to the 3 teams above, absolutely have to go 10-2 to have a spot in the Playoff discussion. Nothing they did against UMass could change that.
Texas A&M (9-3, 5-1 coming off a bye week)
The Aggies are still a bit of a mystery, but throw them into the 9-3 salad and see what happens. They’ve certainly got a chance to emerge as the league’s surprise team still.
Vanderbilt (7-5, 4-2 after 20-13 win over Kentucky)
Why not? Yes, Kentucky is fairly awful, but road wins in the SEC don’t grow on trees for Vandy. This team is legitimate. They’re capable of beating South Carolina and Auburn, which would get them to 7 wins.
Arkansas (6-6, 4-2 coming off a bye week)
We didn’t move the Hogs. In a league with a sharp divide after the top 8 teams, Arkansas may well be the No. 9 team in the league.
Oklahoma (6-6, 4-2 after 34-3 loss to Texas)
There are real offensive issues here. There’s enough talent on both sides to not completely give up on them. But there might not be enough to win meaningful games in the season to come.
South Carolina (5-7, 3-3 after 27-25 loss to Alabama)
Frankly, other than Wofford, it’s hard to find wins here. Vanderbilt is certainly not a sure thing, and while A&M and Missouri are beatable, it’s going to take another impressive effort like this week to pull it off. It’s far from impossible — Carolina is probably the 5-7 team with the best chance to reach 6 victories. But we’re not calling for it just yet.
Kentucky (5-7, 3-3 after 20-13 loss to Vanderbilt)
Never mind that Kentucky 8-win business. It was as illusory as that performance against Ole Miss. In a season that’s already showing plenty of inexplicable games, that one might be one of the most notable. Good teams don’t lose at home to Vandy. Even “new” Vandy.
Florida (5-7, 3-3 after 23-17 OT loss to Tennessee)
This Florida team can take down Kentucky and Florida State, but that leaves them a very definite game short of bowl eligibility. The Tennessee game is one they’ll be kicking themselves about over a long offseason.
Auburn (4-8, 2-4 coming off a bye week)
They got dropped just because a team as dire on offense as the Tigers have been is hard to respect in this wild SEC.
Mississippi State (2-10, 1-5 after 41-31 loss to Georgia)
Give the Bulldogs credit for not giving up and keeping the fight. On a given week, the Bulldogs could nab another SEC win (home games against Arkansas and Mizzou are the best chance) … which is better than it seemed coming into Week 7.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
