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Ranking the SEC’s Week 12 games from toughest (Arkansas) to easiest (Alabama)
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To put it lightly, Week 12 in the SEC doesn’t stack up to what Week 11 offered.
There will not be a contest within the conference that comes down to single digits. Arkansas plays without heart and falls apart against Mississippi State at home. Kentucky feels the wrath of Georgia’s anger and gets taken to the “Dawg pound.”
With all 14 SEC teams in action this week, here are projections for margins of victory, ranked from losses/narrow wins to the biggest blowout.
14. Arkansas
Opponent: vs. Mississippi State
Bovada line: +12 1/2
Prediction: Arkansas loses by 24
Why: There is no stability within the Arkansas athletic program after Jeff Long was ousted as the athletic director on Wednesday. By the time this article is published, Bret Bielema may be let go as well. Another early morning game yields another disappointing result for Razorbacks fans.
13. Kentucky
Opponent: at Georgia
Bovada line: + 21 1/2
Prediction: Kentucky loses by 21
Why: Despite Kentucky’s marked improvement, playing at Georgia a week after the Bulldogs were embarrassed is not ideal. The Wildcats’ biggest downside on Saturday will be their inability to score. They are tied for 70th in the country at 27.9 points per game. To compare, Georgia is throwing up more than 36 points per game versus conference opponents this season.
12. Tennessee
Opponent: vs. LSU
Bovada line: +16
Prediction: Tennessee loses by 17
Why: Like Arkansas, Tennessee is in a heap of trouble this weekend. Brady Hoke has taken over as interim coach after Butch Jones was fired. Hoke hasn’t announced which quarterback will start against LSU. Regardless, Tennessee will lose another embarrassing conference game in front of its fans.
11. Vanderbilt
Opponent: vs. Missouri
Bovada line: +9 1/2
Prediction: Vanderbilt loses by 14
Why: Vanderbilt got smashed 44-21 at home by Kentucky last week. With the Commodores’ defense giving up 46.2 points to conference opponents this season, there shouldn’t be a lot of belief that Derek Mason’s squad can walk off the field with a win.
10. Ole Miss
Opponent: vs. Texas A&M
Bovada line: -3
Prediction: Ole Miss loses by 10
Why: Jordan Ta’amu has filled in nicely for the injured Shea Patterson, but he won’t be able to fend off the Aggies. While Ole Miss has continued to be lethal on offense in Patterson’s absence, the defense has allowed a ghastly 291.83 rushing yards to conference opponents. Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford will gash the Rebels all night long.
9. Texas A&M
Opponent: at Ole Miss
Bovada line: +3
Prediction: Texas A&M wins by 10
Why: Ole Miss has gotten the better of Texas A&M in the last three games. That won’t continue on Saturday. Despite Kevin Sumlin’s teams typically struggling in the second half of the season in recent years, the Aggies pull one out in Oxford.
8. Missouri
Opponent: at Vanderbilt
Bovada line: -9 1/2
Prediction: Missouri wins by 14
Why: Missouri is scoring 37.9 points on average through 10 games. The Tigers will dominate the Commodores in Vanderbilt Stadium and earn a bowl berth. If Barry Odom can add a win in Week 13 against Arkansas, he’ll have quietly turned Missouri’s season around.
7. LSU
Opponent: at Tennessee
Bovada line: -16
Prediction: LSU wins by 17
Why: LSU trounced Arkansas last week and faces another pathetic SEC opponent in Week 12. This time, the Tigers will be able to inflict damage on the road. LSU is averaging over 200 yards on the ground this season behind Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams. If the Tigers stick to their game plan — hard-nosed defense and pounding the ball on offense — they shouldn’t have any problems.
6. Florida
Opponent: UAB
Bovada line: -10 1/2
Prediction: Florida wins by 20
Why: Florida couldn’t put together a complete game versus South Carolina in Week 11. The Gators again will struggle to do so against the Blazers, but the defense will bail them out. Florida wins a dirtied-up game.
5. Georgia
Opponent: vs. Kentucky
Bovada line: -21 1/2
Prediction: Georgia wins by 21
Why: After looking unbeatable for most of the season, Georgia was dominated by Auburn in Week 11. The Bulldogs rushed for at least 185 yards in every game prior to the Tigers holding them to a meager 46. Kentucky is giving up 155.57 per game. Georgia will use a heavy dose of Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D’Andre Swift to bring up that average considerably.
Kirby Smart’s team responds at home. He knows the Bulldogs can’t afford to drop another game in order to stay in the hunt for a College Football Playoff appearance.
4. Mississippi State
Opponent: at Arkansas
Bovada line: -12 1/2
Prediction: Mississippi State wins by 24
Why: Mississippi State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Alabama last week. Luckily, the Bulldogs face a team in disarray following the painful letdown. The entire Mississippi State team could play this game hungover and still win, considering Arkansas is giving up 43.5 points to conference opponents this season. Dan Mullen picks up his fifth win in his last six contests versus the Razorbacks.
3. South Carolina
Opponent: Wofford
Bovada line: No line listed against FCS teams
Prediction: South Carolina wins by 31
Why: Some of the Wofford faithful might venture to Columbia for the game, as the distance between the schools runs about an hour and a half. It might not be worth the short trip. South Carolina leads the all-time series 19-4-0.
2. Auburn
Opponent: Louisiana Monroe
Bovada line: -37
Prediction: Auburn wins by 34
Why: There is still a decent shot for the Tigers to advance to the College Football Playoff if they win out. Every player knows what the Alabama game means to their season. Auburn will cruise in this game, but the players will be thinking about the Crimson Tide. It will be a somewhat closer contest than it should be because of the distraction.
1. Alabama
Opponent: Mercer
Bovada line: No line listed against FCS teams
Prediction: Alabama wins by 37
Why: The Bears stuck tight with Auburn early in the season, losing 24-10. Their loss on Saturday will exceed that margin, but not as badly as some might expect. Nick Saban will stress the importance of this game, but his players will be looking ahead to Week 13. Alabama wins, but it wouldn’t cover the line if there was one listed.
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Week 11 in review: Last week in this spot, we chose Auburn to lose a barn-burner to Georgia at home. Instead, the Tigers bullied the Bulldogs inside Jordan-Hare Stadium on their way to a 40-17 victory. Mississippi State almost fulfilled our prediction of upsetting Alabama, but lost to the Crimson Tide in the waning moments 31-24. … Though we projected Tennessee to lose (by 21), we didn’t see the Volunteers finishing 33 points shy of the Missouri Tigers at the final whistle.
Tye is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He works on-air for ESPN Arkansas in Fort Smith. You can follow him on twitter @TyeSportsRadio.
