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Recruiting expert identifies 8 SEC teams with ‘Blue-Chip Ratio’ to compete for national championship
By Andrew Olson
Published:
A prominent recruiting expert has shared his 16 teams with the talent needed to compete for the national championship in 2024.
Bud Elliott shared his Blue-Chip Ratio numbers for the 2024 season on Tuesday via CBS Sports. Elliott introduced the Blue-Chip Ratio in 2013. It proposes that a team must sign a majority of blue-chip (4- and 5-star) recruits to be able to win the national championship. The squads that meet the 50% requirement make the list of “teams that can actually win the national championship.”
Elliott’s Blue-Chip Ratio focuses on high school talent and does not include the transfer portal (though Tuesday’s article goes on to include what the BCR would look like with transfers factored into the formula).
As Elliott annually points out, every national champion since 2011 has had a roster with over 50% blue-chip high school recruits.
Clemson was the closest call with 52% blue-chip signings in 2013-16 before winning the title in 2016. Michigan’s 2023 roster had a 54% BCR.
As one might expect, the SEC has a strong presence in the 2024 Blue-Chip Ratio rankings. Ohio State leads the list with 90%, but 8 of the 16 teams are from the 2024 SEC (including newcomers Oklahoma and Texas).
Here’s a look at the BCR top 16, along with their latest 2024 national championship odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Ohio State – 90% Blue-Chip Ratio (+400 to win 2024 national championship at DraftKings)
- Alabama – 88% BCR (+1400)
- Georgia – 80% BCR (+320)
- Texas A&M – 79% BCR (+4500)
- Oregon – 76% BCR (+850)
- Oklahoma – 73% BCR (+6500)
- Texas – 72% BCR (+750)
- LSU – 70% BCR (+1600)
- Notre Dame – 67% BCR (+2500)
- Clemson – 64% BCR (+4000)
- Florida – 63% BCR (+25000)
- Miami – 61% BCR (+5500)
- Penn State – 61% BCR (+2200)
- USC – 59% BCR (+6500)
- Michigan – 56% BCR (+2500)
- Auburn – 53% BCR (+11000)
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Ole Miss jumps out as a notable team missing from the list.
After going 11-2 with a New Year’s Six win and signing the top transfer portal class of 2024, Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are seen as a more national championship contender than some of their SEC peers who did make the BCR 16.
Ole Miss to win the 2024 college football national championship is a +1500 futures bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
If the Rebels win it all, a $100 bet at current odds would win $1500 for a $1600 payout.
Auburn and Florida were the only two teams on the BCR 16 to have 5-digit odds as the national championship winner. AU is +11000, while UF is +25000.
Elliott has long maintained that signing the best high school talent sets the foundation for winning the national championship.
With the increasing popularity of the transfer portal and the expanded College Football Playoff field, there are increased opportunities for a sub-50% team to break through.
This time next year, we’ll see if we’re talking about another BCR winner or a portal king cracking the code.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
