SEC Week 12 Primer: Down to its last strike, Georgia’s survival means dragging Tennessee back to the pack

Everything you need to know about the Week 12 SEC slate, all in one place.

(All betting lines via FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Game of the Week: Tennessee at Georgia (–9.5)

The stakes

As advertised, Vols-Dogs is a pivotal swing game in both College Football Playoff and SEC standings, promising reverberations in both. With 3 Saturdays left in the regular season, 8 SEC teams are still plausibly in the Playoff hunt. Only 2 head-to-head meetings remain between those teams — Tennessee-Georgia and Texas-Texas A&M on Nov. 30 — making Saturday’s collision one of the few remaining dates with clear and present Playoff implications for both teams. It’s nut-cuttin’ time, and there’s a lot left to be decided.

If you like easy decisions with a minimum of drama, Tennessee is your team. A UT win would clarify a lot: Besides making the Vols a near lock for the CFP, it would also make them a near lock for the SEC Championship Game, with only Vanderbilt standing between them and a 7-1 finish in conference play. Barring a major upset involving Texas or A&M, the stage would then be set for a collision in Atlanta between Tennessee and the winner of Longhorns-Aggies, the league’s only remaining 1-loss teams. No tiebreakers, no adding up the combined records of common opponents, no mess. Simple, straightforward, easy.

Just as plainly, a Vols win would also eliminate Georgia, which comes in with 2 strikes in the loss column and slumping stock in the wake of a 28-10 beatdown at the hands of Ole Miss. The Bulldogs haven’t lost back-to-back regular-season games since 2016, Kirby Smart‘s 1st year as head coach, or a home game since 2019, which probably goes a long way toward explaining the surprisingly lopsided point spread in this one — after all, who had Georgia bowing out of the national race in mid-November? The Bulldogs also haven’t played a complete game on both sides of the ball in more than 2 months, and they just suffered their worst loss since the pandemic. Whatever the spread says, Saturday is a crossroads game for UGA’s rep as a year-in, year-out contender.

But if your taste tends toward chaos, for the 1st time in a long time you’re rooting for the Dogs. As it stands, Georgia is 1 of 5 teams with 2 losses in SEC play, and a win on Saturday would guarantee at least 1 2-loss outfit a ticket to Atlanta. Which 2-loss outfit(s) is impossible to project: As many as 8 teams could realistically finish 6-2, triggering a convoluted tiebreaker scenario that offers no clarity without knowing exactly which combination of teams are involved in the pileup. Georgia’s mission at this point is simply to ensure that it’s one of them.

The stat: 2.48

That’s Georgia’s average points per drive this season, according to efficiency guru Brian Fremeau, 48th nationally and on pace for UGA’s worst average PPD since Smart’s 1st season as head coach.

Much has been made of Carson Beck‘s soaring interception rate in SEC play, in this space and every other space. Beck’s efficiency has regressed dramatically compared to his hyper-efficient campaign in 2023. But he has also been asked to do a lot more, under much less favorable conditions, with a surrounding cast that hasn’t exactly distinguished itself. The ground game has been the least productive of Smart’s tenure by far, averaging a mediocre 111.7 yards per game on 3.6 per carry vs. conference opponents. The wideouts, while potentially explosive, have been inconsistent and occasionally maddening; Pro Football Focus has Beck down for more dropped passes on the year (20) than any other SEC quarterback. (Leading receiver Arian Smith has been the main culprit in that column, with 7 drops on 49 targets.) And the usually reliable offensive line was just exposed in ghastly fashion in the loss at Ole Miss, whose front-line rotation generated 14 pressures, 5 sacks and 2 fumbles without resorting to sending extra rushers.

A furious 4th-quarter comeback against Alabama skews the stats, but other than that rally the Bulldogs have been notably out of sync against the 3 best defenses they’ve faced: Bama, Texas and Ole Miss — a grim omen against a Tennessee defense that ranks in the top 5 nationally in total defense, scoring defense, SP+ defense, yards per play allowed, 3rd-down defense and, yes, points per drive. It doesn’t help that the Dogs’ best skill player, RB Trevor Etienne, has been ruled out with a rib injury, putting more pressure on Beck, his mercurial receivers and his suddenly shaky O-line to protect him. This group is gifted enough to pull a U-turn, but if it’s gonna happen, Saturday is their last chance to swing it.

The big question: Is Nico Iamaleava ready to roll?

Iamaleava’s health has been the biggest storyline leading up to the game, and it remains the biggest variable. The quarterback left last week’s 33-14 win over Mississippi State at halftime with what was initially reported to be an upper body injury; Josh Heupel told reporters immediately after the game that his absence was merely a “precautionary measure,” and Iamaleava would be “ready to roll” against Georgia. What a relief. By midweek, the outlook was more muddled. Iamaleava was in concussion protocol but still participating in practice (?); he was unofficially on track to play but officially “questionable” per the latest injury report. Vibes out of Knoxville are optimistic, but we won’t really know for sure until Iamaleava or 5th-year walk-on Gaston Moore comes out to take the 1st snap on Saturday night.

If Iamaleava does play, is he up to the challenge on the road? The Vols haven’t played away from Neyland Stadium in more than a month — their last road trip was their only loss, a 19-14 stunner at Arkansas on Oct. 5. In the meantime, Iamaleava has apparently pulled out of his midseason slump, leading a Week 8 win over Alabama, turning in arguably his best performance of the year against Kentucky in Week 10 and getting off to a great start against Mississippi State last week before exiting the game. He has the size, the arm and the mobility to be an asset as a runner, an important distinction against a Georgia defense that has had its issues against athletic QBs like Jalen Milroe and Jaxson Dart. (That is, of course, if Iamaleava has the green light to run.) And he has bankable run support in Dylan Sampson, who averages a grueling 26 carries per game in SEC play and has hit the 100-yard mark in 8 of 9 games overall.

The upshot: When Iamaleava looks good, he looks very good. But he has yet to put it all together against a real opponent, even in the defensively-driven win over Bama, offering glimpses of his elite potential while the breakthrough continues to loom in the distance. Tennessee will take whatever version doctors are willing to clear on Saturday, and again, it doesn’t necessarily need a needle-moving performance from the quarterback if Sampson and the defense continue to hold up their end of the bargain. But boy, would the Vols love to see it on this stage. If Iamaleava manages to take the next step before the postseason, the Vols could be serious contenders to go all the way.

The key matchup: Georgia OT Earnest Greene III vs. Tennessee edge James Pearce Jr.

It has been a rough year for Greene, who began the season as an aspiring 1st-rounder but has not looked the part. He has given up a team-high 16 QB pressures, per PFF, including multiple pressures allowed against Kentucky, Alabama and Texas, and he was repeatedly abused in the loss to Ole Miss; PFF singled him out for 2 sacks allowed against the Rebels as well as a pair of hits. That won’t cut it against Pearce, a Day 1 prospect who has actually lived up to the preseason hype: His 42 QB pressures leads the conference and is tied for 2nd nationally among Power 4 defenders. Pearce’s overall PRP — a catchall PFF stat combining sacks, hits and hurries relative to how often a player rushes the passer — is also the best in the power conferences. Georgia cannot afford for its left tackle to get posterized 2 weeks in a row.

The verdict

It’s easy to be down on Georgia right now, the curve in Athens being set as high as it is. But it’s also worth remembering that the Kirby-era Bulldogs have thoroughly dominated this series, boasting a 7-game winning streak over Tennessee by an average margin of 26.4 points per game; the closest margin in that span was a 27-13 decision in 2022 that, as anyone who watched that game will tell you, was not nearly that close. Altogether, Georgia has won 28 straight at home dating back to an October 2019 loss to South Carolina.

Then again, streaks tend to fall in bunches. Last week’s loss to Ole Miss snapped an incredible 52-game winning streak against opponents other than Alabama, and in decisive fashion. If I were certain about Iamaleava’s status, I’d be very tempted to take the Vols, who have had their glitches offensively (and, not for nothing, in the kicking game) but have been very consistent in terms of defense and running the dang ball. They know who they are; I’m not sure Georgia does at the moment. But there is no more margin for error: One way or the other, we’re all about to find out.
–     –     –
Georgia 24  | • Tennessee 20

Texas (–12.5) at Arkansas

Texas has no reason to be concerned about its defense, statistically the SEC’s best. But it is worth noting that the list of opposing quarterbacks to date features a suspicious number of wet-behind-the-ears freshmen (Mississippi State’s Michael Van Buren Jr., Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr.) and overmatched walk-ons (Michigan’s Davis Warren, Florida’s Aidan Warner). Yes, it also features a couple of established vets in Beck and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, who threw a combined 5 interceptions against the ‘Horns in Weeks 8 and 9. But they haven’t seen anyone like Arkansas’ Taylen Green, a chaos agent par excellence whose inconsistency is offset — when he’s healthy — by a rare combination of mobility and downfield juice. If Green’s sore knee holds up, he poses the kind of challenge that Texas would love to strike from the “unknowns” column before the postseason.
–     –     –
• Texas 33  |  Arkansas 17

Missouri at South Carolina (–13.5)

If that line seems inflated, it’s due mainly to the uncertainty surrounding Missouri QB Brady Cook, who as of Thursday evening was listed as “doubtful” on the Tigers’ weekly injury report due the ankle/hand injuries that sidelined him in last week’s wild 30-23 win over Oklahoma. Backup Drew Pyne has not inspired much confidence in Cook’s absence, although he was notably better as a starter against the Sooners than he was coming off the bench against Auburn and (especially) Alabama in Weeks 8 and 9. Barring a late-breaking twist, Mizzou’s dwindling CFP hopes are on Pyne’s shoulders.

Regardless of Missouri’s QB situation, though, the 2-touchdown spread is also a nod to red-hot South Carolina, which has taken 3 straight games over Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt by 20-plus points apiece. Although the Gamecocks are an afterthought in the conference race at 4-3, all told they’ve outscored their 7 SEC opponents by a combined 67 points — the 3rd-best differential in conference play behind only Ole Miss (80 points) and Texas (73). If they keep it up, last-second losses to LSU and Alabama by a combined 5 points are going to stick in their craw for a while, those 5 points being all that’s standing between the Gamecocks and a darkhorse Playoff run of their own.
–     –     –
South Carolina 27  |  • Missouri 16

LSU (–4.5) at Florida

The mass exodus from Tiger Stadium during last week’s 42-13 flop against Alabama summed up the state of LSU’s season: Nothing left to see here. At 6-3, the Tigers’ Playoff hopes are toast, and while coach Brian Kelly is safe for now, a coordinator purge is on the horizon ahead of what already figures to be a very long offseason. If Kelly allows the gem of the 2025 recruiting class, verbally-committed QB Bryce Underwood, to slip through his fingers amid a late push from Michigan, it’s going to get even longer.

Meanwhile, the situation in Gainesville is even bleaker. At 4-5, Florida has no momentum, nothing in particular to play for — Billy Napier‘s job is officially safe, after all — and very little to look forward to in the incoming recruiting class, which ranks near the bottom of the conference. They are looking forward to the potential return of freshman QB DJ Lagway, who has practiced this week after sitting out last week’s wipeout loss at Texas with a strained hamstring. But the defense was awful against the Longhorns, suffering from blown coverages and missed tackles, and the injury-plagued back 7 remains shorthanded at every position. Bama debacle notwithstanding, the one aspect of LSU’s team that still looks vaguely like a strength is the passing game, which the Gators are ill-equipped to contain unless they’re able to generate significantly more pressure on Garrett Nussmeier than they’ve managed the past 2 weeks against Beck and Quinn Ewers. If the Tigers can’t light up this secondary, they might as well go ahead and sim to December.
–     –     –
• LSU 34  |  Florida 22

New Mexico State at Texas A&M (–38.5)

New Mexico State had a moment in 2023, winning 10 games and stunning Auburn in one of the biggest upsets in school history last November. It didn’t last. The head coach, offensive coordinator and starting quarterback from that team are all doing their thing at Vanderbilt now, and the Aggies are back to being just plain old New Mexico State, as ever. The Aggies are 2-7, in last place in the Conference USA standings, and they rank dead last nationally in pass efficiency. The other Aggies are just trying to get to their season-defining reunion with Texas in the finale as healthy as possible.
–     –     –
• Texas A&M 52  |  New Mexico State 10

UL-Monroe at Auburn (–24.5)

The standing beef with Auburn’s offense is that it doesn’t lean heavily enough on its bell cow, senior RB Jarquez Hunter. In a game like this, though, I’d actually like to see the Tigers air it out a little bit, if only to give a couple of hyped freshman wideouts, Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson, a chance to remind the locals why they were so touted in the first place. After a promising start, they’ve been afterthoughts in conference play. Coleman, one of the most hyped Auburn signees of the online recruiting era, has 1 touchdown on 11 catches vs. SEC opponents, while Thompson has struggled just to stay on the field; both have taken a back seat to their less-touted classmate, Malcolm Simmons, who has just 1 TD in conference play himself. There is still hope that their potential can be unlocked with an improved QB situation in the future — all eyes on that front are on 5-star 2025 commit Deuce Knight, who is still being wooed by Ole Miss, among others — but for now, just showing up against the UL-Monroes of the world would be a welcome glimpse of what’s in store.
–     –     –
• Auburn 41  |  UL-Monroe 13

Mercer at Alabama (–41.5)

Alabama’s Playoff outlook remains TBD, but Mercer’s is set: At 9-1, the Bears are the 1st (and so far only) team to clinch an automatic bid to the FCS bracket as regular-season champs of the Southern Conference. A trip to Tuscaloosa? Gravy. Just get where you’re going in one piece, guys.
–     –     –
• Alabama 51  |  Mercer 6

Murray State at Kentucky (–37.5)

Kentucky’s offense has been a wreck, ranking at or near the bottom of the SEC across the board. After 2 months of frustration, the Wildcats couldn’t ask for a slower, fatter target for taking out their angst than Murray State’s defense, which has allowed an FCS-worst 45.0 points per game en route to a 1-9 record and last-place status in the Missouri Valley Conference. On the same note, with starting QB Brock Vandagriff‘s status in doubt, they couldn’t ask for a better opportunity to give the heir apparent, true freshman Cutter Boley, a test drive as QB1 with an eye toward staging a legitimate competition next spring. Imagine the luxury of a homegrown quarterback who sticks rather than rolling the dice in the portal every year.
–     –     –
• Kentucky 45  |  Murray State 3

Off This Week: Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt

Scoreboard

Week 11 Record: 4–2 straight-up | 3–3 vs. spread
Season Record: 80–20 straight-up | 60–37 vs. spread

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.