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Week 10 SEC Primer: Georgia is revving up for its annual Playoff push. Florida is bracing for the gauntlet
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Everything you need to know about the Week 10 SEC slate, all in one place.
(All betting lines via FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Game of the Week: Florida vs. Georgia (-14.5)
The stakes:
High, as always, albeit for very different reasons. Georgia (6-1) is exactly where it expected to be at this point on the calendar — relatively healthy, ranked No. 2 in the polls, coming off an emphatic win at Texas, and hitting the home stretch with all of its championship-or-bust goals intact. Florida (4-3), on the other hand, is facing exactly the situation it dreaded: Embarking on a brutal November gauntlet with a fledgling quarterback, no realistic path to the Playoff, and Billy Napier‘s status hanging by a thread.
To the Gators’ credit, they have rallied since stinking up the joint in a couple of early home losses to Miami and Texas A&M. At that point, it seemed like axe could fall on Napier at any moment, the only question being not if but when. In the meantime, they’ve played their way off the gallows. They’re 3-1 over their past 4, with all 3 wins coming by double digits and the lone defeat coming in an overtime heartbreaker at Tennessee. (Not for nothing, all 3 losses to date have come against teams currently ranked in the top 10 with a combined record of 21-2.) Their last time out, a 48-20 romp over Kentucky, was their most lopsided win in SEC play in nearly 2 years.
Now comes the moment of truth: A 5-week stretch against Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State that will almost certainly determine Napier’s fate. Florida’s inability to manage the end of the schedule in his first 2 seasons is the main reason he’s on the hot seat in the first place. The Gators went out on a 3-game losing streak in 2022 and a 5-game skid last year, both ensuring losing records. Avoiding the same fate in ’24 will require an upset over the next 4 games in addition to beating a thoroughly poisoned version of FSU.
More important, beyond the record, the next month is simply about looking like a team that belongs on the field against the ranked half of the conference. The flops against Miami and A&M were less damning for the results than for the margins; both games were essentially over at halftime, leaving the crowd that remained in The Swamp to stew in their collective misery. But a series of performances like the Tennessee game, which Florida had a legitimate chance to win, would stand as a compelling argument that the project still has a future behind blue-chip freshman QB DJ Lagway. Of course, “close but no cigar” won’t cut the mustard for long. In the short run, though, it might very well do to get Napier to 2025. Saturday will be the first test of whether the bridge is sturdy enough to bear the weight.
The stat: 4.2%
That’s Georgia QB Carson Beck‘s interception rate in SEC play, worst in the conference among full-time starters and a dramatic increase over his 1.4% interception rate in 2023. Through 5 SEC games, he’s thrown 8 picks on 192 attempts, including multi-INT outings against Alabama (3), Mississippi State (2), and Texas (3) — a stark departure from last year, when he didn’t have a single game with multiple interceptions all season.
What’s behind the spike? Beck hasn’t been under more pressure; in fact, per Pro Football Focus, only 1 of his 8 interceptions to date has come under duress. (That was true last year, too: All 6 INTs in 2023 came from clean pockets.) He has, however, been under more pressure to make plays through the air to pick up some of the slack for a defense and ground game that have not quite been up to the usual Georgia standards. Prior to the Dawgs’ epic loss at Alabama in Week 4, he’d never attempted 40 passes in a game. In 4 games since, he’s hit that mark routinely: He put it up 50 times in comeback mode against Bama; 48 times in a high-flying, 41-31 win over Mississippi State; and 41 times at Texas. Altogether, Beck has accounted for 72% of the team’s total offense vs. Power 4 opponents, a big jump over his 57% share of the production in ’23. The Dawgs have put more on his plate, largely out of necessity; the picks have followed in due course.
Still, while he has not lived up to the hype statistically, Beck remains the SEC’s best Heisman bet for a reason: His team is still a national frontrunner, and he can still move the needle over the next 3 weeks in high-profile dates against Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee. (Not to mention the SEC Championship Game, if UGA wins out.) A repeat of last November, his best month in ’23, and he could be back in the race in a hurry.
The big question: Is DJ Lagway ready for his closeup?
First of all, forget the hype: Even for a player as touted as Lagway, a true freshman quarterback making his 3rd career start against Georgia is a true freshman quarterback making his 3rd career start against Georgia. Florida fans only have to think back a few years to the 2021 game, when no less a talent than Anthony Richardson was thrown into the fire against UGA after just a handful of intriguing cameos up to that point, to remind themselves that the 19-year-old Lagway deserves a generous curve.
That said, clearly the kid is every bit the specimen he was made out to be. At 6-3, 239 pounds, Lagway is big, mobile and can absolutely rip it. Per PFF, fully half of his 1,024 passing yards on the season have come on attempts of 20+ air yards, where he has flashed the easy downfield arm strength that Florida was sorely missing from 6th-year shopkeeper Graham Mertz. Before his season was cut short by a torn ACL in Week 7, Mertz was a pedestrian 4-for-11 for 86 yards on attempts of 20+ air yards on the year. Lagway, who’d been relegated to a rotational role over the first half the season, surpassed that in one game, going 5-for-7 for 211 yards on downfield attempts in the Gators’ blowout win over Kentucky. Three of those completions found their way into the hands of his favorite target, Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger, covering 50, 58 and 40 yards, respectively, on 3 of the most aesthetically pleasing throws you’ll see from a college quarterback this season.
DJ Lagway strike. Hard to replicate this a talent.
Gators lead 13-6.
— Neil W. Blackmon (@nwblackmon) October 20, 2024
https://twitter.com/OldRowGators/status/1847808997018992750/
https://twitter.com/fhstigers_/status/1847837190321287438/
All 3 of those completions set up short touchdown runs by true freshman RB Jadan Baugh, who went for 106 yards 5 touchdowns against the Wildcats (all from 10 yards or less) in his first career start. But although the Gators kept the ball on the ground on roughly three-quarters of their total snaps, the majority of their 476 yards on the night came on just those handful of flicks of Lagway’s wrist.
The flip side of his explosiveness, for now, remains his inexperience (obviously) and inconsistency. Lagway has thrown as many interceptions (5) as touchdowns on the season, and that’s counting 3 TDs in a Week 2 win over Samford. In the intermediate 10-to-19-yard range he’s completed just 9-of-22 attempts with 4 picks. He is very much a work in progress, which is why Napier was so reluctant to fast-track him to the top of the depth chart in September when the entire country was begging him to dump Mertz before it was too late.
Mertz was actually in the process of justifying that decision prior to his injury, which occurred on a touchdown pass that put the Gators up 10-0 in the 3rd quarter of their eventual overtime loss at Tennessee; Lagway subsequently threw an interception on Florida’s next snap, setting up a short-field field goal for the Vols that evened the score. It was too much to expect of him to fend off a top-10 opponent on the road, and even with 2 weeks’ worth of preparation as the unquestioned starter it’s too much to expect of him on Saturday to keep pace with Beck in anything other than a low-scoring slugfest. (And no one is anticipating Florida’s defense pulling off a low-scoring slugfest.) But if he can continue to offer glimpses of bigger things to come, he’ll be holding up his end of the bargain.
The key matchup: Florida OT Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson vs. Georgia LB/Edge Jalon Walker
Walker had a breakout game against Texas, recording 3 of Georgia’s 7 sacks on a dominant night for the pass rush as a unit. But he was already a known commodity to the Gators, against whom he accounted for 3 QB pressures and a strip sack in last year’s meeting on just 11 snaps, all of them as a pass rusher. In retrospect, that now looks like the first step in his rapid emergence as a likely first-rounder in next year’s draft.
https://twitter.com/TheDraftRoomNFL/status/1848042357813399984/
Crenshaw-Dickson, a 6th-year transfer from San Diego State in his first year in Gainesville, is not nearly as decorated. But he has played significantly more snaps at the FBS level than any other Florida o-lineman, and since his promotion to the starting lineup in Week 2 he’s been arguably the most reliable member of the front. In 6 starts at right tackle, he’s allowed just 3 pressures and no sacks as a pass blocker while posting the top PFF run-blocking grade on the team. At 6-7, 322 pounds, he boasts an NFL-ready frame; if he manages to hold his own against Walker and fellow bookend Mykel Williams, the scouts will have no choice but to take notice.
The verdict …
The Cocktail Party has been a one-sided affair in the Kirby Smart era, with Georgia taking 6 of the past 7 in the series. (The lone exception coming in 2020, the pandemic-ravaged season that should be relegated to a footnote in the historical record if not stricken entirely.) The previous 3 entries were laughers decided by 27, 22 and 23 points, respectively, and in real time they all felt even worse than the scores implied.
Barring a miraculous turn by Lagway or an unforeseen meltdown by Beck, there’s nothing that suggests this one will go any differently. The current version of Georgia’s defense is not the week-in, week-out monolith it was in the Dawgs’ back-to-back national title runs — the week before their trip to Texas they gave up 306 yards and 3 touchdowns passing to a true freshman, Mississippi State’s Michael Van Buren Jr., who was not sacked once — but the vintage butt-kicking it administered in Austin was proof enough that it’s still capable of that kind of performance on a big stage. With big-ticket dates against Ole Miss and Tennessee on deck, now is the point on the calendar when the Dawgs need to be rounding into postseason form.
– – –
• Georgia 37 | Florida 19
Texas A&M (-3.5) at South Carolina
If you’ve watched enough college football, this is one of those games that gets your spidey sense tingling. Surging Texas A&M, coming off an emotional, come-from-behind win over LSU, on the road against a feisty South Carolina team coming off an open date? In primetime? Yeah, I recognize a classic Upset Special script when I see one. For one thing, the Gamecocks already came within a hair’s breadth of knocking off LSU and Alabama in games decided on the last play, losing both by a combined margin of 5 points. For another, they’re a different team at night, at home. Under Shane Beamer, Carolina is 13-3 in home games that kicked off at 7 pm ET or later – the majority of those wins coming in upsets – compared to 11-18 in all other games, home or away. Williams-Brice After Dark is a legitimately hostile environment, as Aggies fans know well.
Also: Who is Texas A&M’s starting quarterback? Redshirt freshman Marcel Reed stole the show against LSU, coming off the bench to lead 5 consecutive scoring drives after replacing a struggling Conner Weigman in the 3rd quarter. Still, as dynamic as Reed was in his brief appearance, recall that it was only a few weeks ago that the shoe was on the other foot — in the Aggies’ other big win this season, a Week 6 blowout over Missouri, it was Weigman who looked the part, reasserting his status as QB1 following a 3-game absence due to a shoulder injury. That was the same week that coach Mike Elko told reporters that settling on a starter was “likely to be a game-time decision the rest of the year.”
Well, here we are. Elko, predictably, has declined to clarify the pecking order this week, telling reporters on Monday “it’s probably too early in our minds to make that decision,” and “even we did, we probably wouldn’t tell you right now anyway.” Fair enough. Between Weigman’s arm and Reed’s mobility, there’s a case to be made for either, or both, depending on the circumstances on any given Saturday. Personally, Reed strikes me as the more practical option against South Carolina due to his ability to elude the Gamecocks’ sweltering pass rush. But then, when you’ve won 7 in a row en route to the top of the standings, suddenly all of your options tend to look pretty good.
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• Texas A&M 26 | South Carolina 17
Ole Miss (-7.5) at Arkansas
Trying to draw a bead on Arkansas is futile: From blowing a double-digit lead against Oklahoma State to ambushing Tennessee to flopping like a fish on dry land against LSU to hanging 58 on Mississippi State, the Razorbacks haven’t looked like the same team from one week to the next at any point this season. One thing that has remained consistent, though, is that the outcome aligns with turnovers. Arkansas is +7 in turnover margin in its 5 wins but –8 in its 3 losses, having generated a single takeaway in defeat.
On that note, a big factor against Ole Miss will be how well QB Taylen Green takes care of the ball under pressure. The Rebels’ investment in the pass rush has paid off — they rank No. 2 nationally in sacks (34) and boast 6 players with at least 20 QB pressures on the season, per PFF. (For context, the rest of the SEC combined has 12 players with 20+ pressures.) Last week, they recorded 10 sacks against Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold, all of them coming on standard 3- and 4-man rushes.
For his part, Green has faced a steady diet of pressure from opposing defenses and handled it well, boasting an SEC-best 75.4 PFF grade under duress. His mobility is a big factor in that; it’s no coincidence that the Razorbacks’ worst game of the season, a 34-10 loss at LSU in Week 8, came on a night Green was limited by a sore knee. He was back to full speed in last week’s blowout win at Mississippi State, but faces a unique challenge on Saturday opposite Ole Miss edge Suntarine Perkins, a former 5-star coming off a career game against the Sooners. Perkins can win off the edge, but truly excels as a spy, where his closing speed erases open space as quickly as opposing QBs can find it. Watching the 6-6 Green on the hoof is a spectacle in its own right; add a specimen like Perkins in pursuit, and you’ve got the makings of a scene straight out of a documentary about predator and prey on the savannah.
– – –
Ole Miss 29 | • Arkansas 24
Kentucky at Tennessee (-16.5)
Is Mark Stoops on the hot seat? On one hand, he’s built up a solid decade of goodwill, and it’s farfetched to imagine Kentucky paying a $44.4 million buyout to fire the winningest coach in school history. On the other hand, the situation has felt stagnant for a couple of years now, and the natives are getting restless as the Wildcats careen toward their first non-pandemic losing season since 2015. They’re 3-11 in their past 14 games vs. power opponents, including a seven-game home losing streak in SEC play.
As my SDS colleague Connor O’Gara wrote earlier this week, while Stoops is unlikely to be fired outright, after 12 years the time might be right for a mutual parting of ways. As it stands, the program is much better off now than it was when Stoops took over in 2013, competitively and financially. The university and the fan base are invested; the “basketball school” rep is in quasi-retirement. Stoops’ successor would have a chance to continue to build off that progress. But the longer the arc bends toward decline, the bigger the risk of eventually having to start over from square one.
– – –
• Tennessee 30 | Kentucky 13
Vanderbilt at Auburn (-7.5)
For all the Auburn fans who have spent the Hugh Freeze era muttering “run the dang ball,” last week’s 24-10 win at Kentucky was for you: Senior RB Jarquez Hunter logged a career-high 23 carries for 278 yards, the best single-game rushing total for any FBS player this season. That line included 10 carries of 10+ yards, among them Hunter’s 3 longest runs of the year; as a team, the Tigers finished with more rushing yards (328) than passing (172) against a power opponent for the first time since last year’s near-upset in the Iron Bowl. Not coincidentally, they also snapped a 7-game losing streak vs. power opponents in the process.
Hunter’s previous career high? A 183-yard, 2-touchdown effort against … Vanderbilt, in last year’s meeting in Nashville, a 31-15 win for Auburn. Obviously, the Commodores are a better team this time around across the board, particularly against the run. But Freeze should be committed to making them prove it before he resorts to dialing up 30 pass attempts for Payton Thorne.
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Auburn 27 | • Vanderbilt 23
Maine at Oklahoma (-34.5)
A 5-touchdown spread against an obscure FCS outfit might seem like a gimme, until you consider the depths of Oklahoma’s offensive collapse: Can the Sooners even score 5 touchdowns right now, against anybody? They haven’t hit that mark since the opener against Temple, due in large part to a +6 turnover margin in that game. In their 4 SEC losses, they’ve managed just 5 touchdowns total vs. 11 turnovers and an astounding 28 sacks allowed. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve fired their offensive coordinator, juggled a pair of ineffective quarterbacks and shuffled their offensive line on a weekly basis. They remain bereft at the skill positions due to injuries. If there’s a shred of optimism left for this unit to salvage, this is the week to find it.
– – –
Oklahoma 38 | • Maine 6
Massachusetts at Mississippi State (-17.5)
Finally, a chance for Mississippi State to put one in the win column after losing 7 straight — almost certainly its last chance, too, with little remaining hope of getting on the board in conference play against Tennessee, Missouri or Ole Miss. Not that beating UMass moves the needle in any other way: Since joining the FBS ranks in 2012, the Minutemen are 0-28 vs. power conference opponents by an average margin of nearly 30 points per game, including a 45-3 blowout against Missouri earlier this year. Sill, at this point any opportunity for the Bulldogs to feel good about themselves is one to savor, because the next one might be a long time coming.
– – –
• Mississippi State 41 | UMass 16
– – –
Off This Week: Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Texas
Scoreboard
Week 9 record: 6-0 straight-up | 5-1 vs. spread
Season record: 71-16 straight-up | 55-29 vs. spread
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
