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Super Bowl Sunday is finally here.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to repeat as world champs on Sunday as they take on a San Francisco 49ers franchise that has not won the Super Bowl since 1994.
The 49ers boast a balanced statistical profile while the Chiefs have a solid defense to go along with arguably the greatest quarterback of this generation couldn’t be any higher. The stakes couldn’t be any higher as these teams meet on this stage for the second time in the last 5 Super Bowls.
Let’s take a look at some trends and advanced stats that should help inform some bets for Super Bowl LVIII:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Lines
Spread: 49ers -2 (DraftKings)
Total: 47.5 points (DraftKings)
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Betting trends to know for the Chiefs
The Chiefs are…
- 12-7-1 against the spread
- 3-0 against the spread as an underdog
- 3-0 against the spread in the playoffs
One of the worst things a NFL bettor can do, historically, is bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs as underdogs. Since Mahomes took over as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018, Kansas City is 11-3-1 against the spread as a dog. That’s a cover rate of over 78%. The Chiefs are also 4-0 against the number in neutral-site games during the Mahomes era. In playoff games over that span, the Chiefs are 12-5 against the spread.
Betting trends to know for the 49ers
The 49ers are…
- 9-10 against the spread
- 9-10 against the spread as a favorite
- 0-2 against the spread in the playoffs
The only positive 49ers trend this season is they’re 6-3 against the number on the road, which doesn’t apply in this instance. Since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach in 2017, the 49ers are just 37-39-1 against the spread as a favorite. SF is also just 1-3 ATS in neutral-site games during the Shanahan era.
Advanced Stats preview
Rushing Success Rate
- 49ers rushing offense success rate: 47% (2nd in NFL)
- Chiefs rushing defense success rate: 41.5% (23rd in NFL)
This is the 49ers’ primary advantage in this game. San Francisco has been one of the best rushing offenses all season while the Chiefs struggle in that area. That trend has continued through the postseason as the Chiefs’ defensive rushing success rate has fallen all the way to 51%.
However, Kansas City isn’t quite as bad in early-down (1st and 2nd down) situations. Since Week 1, the Chiefs rush defense success rate is just above 38% on early downs. That’s not elite by any means — it ranks 19th in the NFL over that span — but it’s enough to perhaps force Brock Purdy and the 49ers into more passing situations than they’d like to have.
Christian McCaffrey is obviously the big name to keep an eye on here for San Francisco. He rushed for a league-best 1,459 yards this season and is also a huge threat out of the backfield. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is also used out of the backfield in creative ways and could give the Chiefs some issues. The 49ers lead all teams in rushing EPA so far this postseason.
- Chiefs rushing offense success rate: 34.1% (27th in NFL)
- 49ers rushing defense success rate: 42.9% (30th in NFL)
The Chiefs don’t run the ball a ton (only about 32% of the time if you filter out Patrick Mahomes’ rushing attempts) so this matchup likely won’t have an outside impact on the game. However, this could be a spot for the Chiefs to gain an extra edge if Isiah Pacheco is able to play as well as he did vs. Buffalo. Pacheco averaged 6.5 yards per carry and had a postseason career-high 97 yards in the win over the Bills. He’s certainly capable of having big games if the 49ers aren’t careful.
Drop-back Success Rate
- 49ers drop-back offense success rate: 54.3% (1st in NFL)
- Chiefs drop-back defense success rate: 40% (3rd in NFL)
Purdy had a phenomenal season running Kyle Shanahan’s offense and that shows up in the success rate data here. The 49ers have been able to scheme open receivers all season and Purdy has done a great job of delivering the ball on time and on target. However, the 49ers passing offense has been a bit more pedestrian in the postseason. SF ranks No. 8 in drop-back success rate amongst 14 postseason teams in 2024.
The 49ers will be facing a Chiefs defense that has been excellent against the pass all year long. While Kansas City can be exposed a bit in the running game, its pass defense has been stellar. The Chiefs lead all postseason teams in drop-back success rate and drop-back EPA defense so far. They’ve been especially lights-out on 3rd down as they’ve posted a drop-back defense success rate of 25.8% in the postseason.
- Chiefs drop-back offense success rate: 48.5% (6th in NFL)
- 49ers drop-back defense success rate: 43.9% (7th in NFL)
The Chiefs hit a bit of a mid-year slump this season, which might help explain why a Patrick Mahomes-led offense ranks outside the top-5 in drop-back success rate. KC has been a bit better in the postseason, posting a drop-back success rate of 52% across 3 playoff games. That’s pretty strong considering the Chiefs played a frozen-tundra game against the Dolphins in the wildcard round and have been on the road in Buffalo and Baltimore the past 2 weeks — both top-10 pass defenses by drop-back EPA.
Kansas City will face another capable pass defense this week in San Francisco. The 49ers were able to force multiple interceptions by Jordan Love and caused Jared Goff to have a frustrating outing as well in the NFL Championship Game. Mahomes is not Love or Goff, but if the 49ers can force a couple of mistakes out of the reigning Super Bowl MVP, it could be all they need.
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Super Bowl picks
3 player bets
Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl MVP (+450). If San Francisco wins, I expect McCaffrey will have a good chance to take home MVP honors. The Chiefs’ run defense is a significant concern and McCaffrey has an argument as the most talented player on the field. Any outcome where the 49ers win likely includes at least 100+ yards — and possibly multiple scores — for McCaffrey. The reason for the great price at +450 is that history is not on McCaffrey’s side. Since 2010, a non-quarterback has won Super Bowl MVP just 4 times and none of those players were running backs. The last running back to take home this prize was Terrell Davis all the way back in 1998.
Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions (-115). Mahomes hasn’t had a turnover all season and I don’t see that changing here. He actually hasn’t thrown a pick in any of his last 6 postseason games (the Chiefs are 6-0 in those games as well). His last postseason interception came back in the 2021 AFC Championship Game against the Bengals.
Travis Kelce over 69.5 receiving yards (-125). You’re paying a little bit of juice here at -125, but I think this is a solid price. The Chiefs are going to throw the ball a ton in this game and they really only have a couple of trustworthy options in Kelce and Rashee Rice. The Kelce and Mahomes combo is lethal against zone defense, which the 49ers run a lot of. Kelce has gone over this total in each of his past 12 postseason games. The last time he didn’t clear 70 yards, ironically, was in KC’s Super Bowl win over the Niners 4 years ago. That Chiefs passing offense was much different, though — they had Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins eating up targets.
2 other bets
Total players to have a pass attempt: over 2.5 (+164). Give Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan 2 weeks to prepare and I’d bet on one of them coming up with a trick play that involves someone other than a quarterback throwing a pass. It’s not likely, but we’re getting a decent price — at +164, our implied odds are about 38%. The 49ers have had Samuel and McCaffrey throw passes over the past couple of seasons. The Chiefs have had running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and punters attempt a pass in the last 4 years. There’s also the small (but real) possibility of an unfortunate injury or blowout that could bring a backup QB into play.
Coin toss pick: Heads (+100). This is as pure as gambling gets. An absolute 50/50 chance. So why pick heads? Tails has won in 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls (including last year). I think heads is due.
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1 pick
Chiefs +2. There’s no way I can pick against Patrick Mahomes in this spot. The 49ers looked like juggernaut at times this season, but the Chiefs have been on this stage before and have faced tougher tests. Mahomes just beat Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen — perhaps the next 2 best quarterbacks on earth — in their own buildings in back-to-back weeks. Is he really going to lose to Brock Purdy? I won’t believe it until I see it.
Note: Statistics include all games for Weeks 1-18 and the postseason unless otherwise noted.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
