Week 8 SEC Primer: Texas has the juice. Georgia wants it back

Everything you need to know about the Week 8 SEC slate, all in one place.

(All betting lines via FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Game of the Week: Georgia at Texas (-4.5)

The stakes

Enormous, as expected. Dawgs/Horns had all the makings of a main event from the moment it appeared on the schedule, and for all the chaos at the top of the polls over the first half of the season, the matchup is what we expected it to be back in August: A test of the consensus No. 1 team in the country in arguably its biggest game of the year, with Playoff Implications, Heisman buzz and NFL-ready talent out the wazoo. The only thing that’s changed is that the expected roles of kingpin and contender have reversed.

Before the season, the pole position clearly belonged to Georgia, which occupied the top spot in the AP poll for 36 weeks in 2021-23 and dominated preseason voting for the second year in a row. But then, by Week 3, the Dawgs were beginning to fray at the edges. The offense was a no-show in the SEC opener, a 13-12 slugfest at Kentucky that featured a single touchdown by either side; voters dropped them from No. 1 in response. Two weeks later, they fell head-first into a 28-0 hole at Alabama that an epic second-half comeback could not quite get them all the way out of. Last week, the defense allowed more points in a 41-31 win over Mississippi State than Georgia had allowed to an unranked opponent since 2016, in the first month of Kirby Smart‘s first season as head coach.

The Bulldogs arrive in Austin 5-1, ranked 5th in the country, and with all of their championship-or-bust goals still in front of them. They’re also nearly two months removed from their only complete, vintage-Georgia performance to date, a 34-3 romp over Clemson in the opener, and have yet to settle on a week-in, week-out identity in the meantime.

Then there’s Texas, the only team in America yet to break a sweat. The Longhorns have dispatched their first 6 opponents by at least 3 touchdowns, including the defending national champ and a blood rival in games that were over by halftime. Their average margin of victory, 35.6 points per game, is the widest in SEC history through 6 games. On one side of the ball, they lead the nation in total and scoring defense; on the other, they have the luxury of 2 top-flight quarterbacks at a moment when most of the competition is just keeping its fingers crossed that it has 1. They’re comfortably atop the major polls this week by wide margins, and boast easily the best odds of both making the Playoff and winning it all, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. The vibes haven’t been this good in Austin since Colt McCoy’s shoulder exploded in the Rose Bowl.

Of course, vibes can shift overnight, especially against a team as loaded and as accustomed to playing on big stages as Georgia. (Hell, against Alabama they shifted 3 or 4 times in the 4th quarter alone.) Texas’ big-ticket wins against Michigan and Oklahoma came at the expense of a couple of struggling offenses groping for solutions at quarterback. Carson Beck, owner of an 18-2 record as a starter and a longstanding fan club among NFL scouts, is a different story. Whichever version of the Bulldogs shows up, it’s one that’s going to be in it for 60 minutes.

The stat: 1.7 yards per play

That’s the average gain this season by opposing offenses against Texas’ defense in the red zone. Through 6 games, the Longhorns have defended just 7 trips inside their own 20-yard line, fewest in the nation, and faced just 17 plays on those trips; altogether, those plays have gained a grand total of 29 yards — 23 yards rushing, 6 yards passing. Opponents have managed a single red-zone touchdown, on a 12-yard run by Mississippi State QB Michael Van Buren Jr. in the 4th quarter of a lopsided game in Week 5. (He commemorated the occasion, naturally, by flashing the Horns Down.)

For its part, Georgia’s offense has been nearly perfect in the red zone the past 3 weeks, cashing in on 13 of its 14 opportunities with 12 touchdowns. The only trip that didn’t result in points: The game-clinching interception in the end zone on the Bulldogs’ last-gasp drive against Alabama.

The key matchup: Texas WR Ryan Wingo vs. Georgia DB Malaki Starks

Texas’ leading receiver, Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond, was upgraded late in the week from “questionable” to “probable” after suffering an ankle injury against Oklahoma. Regardless of how much they can expect from Bond, though, the Longhorns’ most gifted receiver is Wingo, a big, blue-chip freshman with alarmingly smooth run-after-catch skills for a dude who checks in at 6-2, 210 pounds. Wingo has averaged 22.8 yards per catch with 7 of his 15 touches (as a rusher and receiver) going for 25+ yards; if he’s not quite on the same level as his higher-profile classmates Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State and Ryan Williams at Alabama, that might only be due to lack of opportunity, not potential.

If there’s a defender in the college game with the combination of size and athleticism to hang with an all-purpose freak like Wingo, it’s Starks, a former 5-star in his own right who has started every game since he set foot on campus and remains the runaway favorite to be the top safety off the board in next year’s draft. Don’t read too much into the designation: He’s a free-range defender who’s perfectly comfortable turning and running with wideouts.

https://twitter.com/GeorgiaFootball/status/1829957093132288365/

Georgia is not generally in the business of assigning its DBs specific matchups. But when Starks and Wingo do lock up, they’ll have the full attention of every scout in the building, which on this particular night is saying something.

The verdict …

Kirby Smart has spent years dreaming up new and creative ways to cultivate a chip on his team’s shoulder, so what a godsend it is for him to go into a game as an honest-to-god underdog. Georgia hasn’t played a game it wasn’t favored to win in four years, since a pandemic-era trip to Alabama in October 2020. The fact that a second loss could relegate the Dogs to the Playoff bubble before Halloween only adds to the urgency. For once there’s no fear of his team showing up feeling complacent.

This preview has not mentioned arguably the most important player on the field, Texas QB Quinn Ewers. For a guy with 26 career starts, Ewers is still something of a wild card on this stage. Have we already seen him at his best? Even when he’s been healthy this season, the context has called for vanilla. Per PFF, out of 21 SEC quarterbacks with at least 50 drop-backs on the year, Ewers ranks 21st in average depth of target (6.1 yards) and the percentage of his attempts that have covered 20+ air yards (9.3%). Texas just hasn’t needed him to do much more than take care of the ball.

Vanilla is not going to cut it against Georgia. The Dawgs are not as imposing as usual on defense, but they’ve proven in both of their big games to date against Clemson and Alabama that they can score points in bunches against top-shelf competition; unlike Michigan or Oklahoma, a UGA offense that erased an 18-point deficit in a little more than half a quarter in Tuscaloosa ensures that no lead is safe. Ewers hasn’t played in a 60-minute game that was competitive in the fourth quarter since the Longhorns’ semifinal loss to Washington on Jan. 1, when he finished 24/43 for 318 yards, one touchdown, and a good-not-great QBR rating of 73.0. If he’s made as much progress in the meantime as they hope, he won’t get a better chance to prove it until the postseason rolls back around.
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Texas 27 | • Georgia 25

Alabama (-2.5) at Tennessee

I would not go so far as to call Tide/Vols an “elimination game,” since strictly speaking either team could take a second loss and still plausibly sneak into the Playoff with an at-large bid at 10-2. But it is certainly a “separation game.” The winner will be in enviable position for the stretch run, with its conference championship hopes and margin for error intact. The loser will limp out with its odds hanging by a thread, the third strike swaying over its head the rest of the season like the sword of Damocles.

Not that either side is coming in at full swagger as it is. Bama and Tennessee were two of the big losers in the Week 6 massacre at the top of the polls, biting the dust as big favorites against Vanderbilt and Arkansas, respectively, and didn’t reassure anyone last week in close shaves against South Carolina and Florida. After a high-octane September, the Vols’ offense has sputtered so far in SEC play, averaging just 21.3 points in regulation across three SEC games. At the same time, the Tide have wobbled on defense, allowing 92 points over the last 10 quarters since a taking a 30-7 lead to halftime against Georgia. Bama fans have watched in disbelief as their defense has repeatedly allowed extended, time-consuming touchdown drives in three consecutive games.

 Between them, Georgia, Vandy, and Carolina combined for 29 3rd- and 4th-down conversions, moving the chains at a rate of 52.7% on those opportunities. The past 2 weeks, especially, the upshot is not only that hogging the ball on long drives has resulted in points: It’s also kept Jalen Milroe on the bench for long stretches of time, limiting the number of possessions Alabama’s explosive offense has had to pull away while magnifying its miscues. (Four turnovers, plus an intentional grounding penalty that resulted in a safety against the Gamecocks.) No team, even one with as dynamic a combination as Milroe and phenom freshman WR Ryan Williams at its disposal, can thrive when its defense can’t get off the field.

The question Saturday is whether Tennessee’s slumping offense has the juice to follow that blueprint. The Nico Iamaleava hive has had a rough few weeks: His last touchdown pass, a 67-yard strike in the first quarter of the Vols’ Week 4 win at Oklahoma, was nearly a month ago. Since that throw — a real beauty, one that’s going to lead the highlight package when he’s a first-round pick someday — Iamaleava is in a bona fide funk, averaging a pedestrian 5.7 yards per attempt over the subsequent 11 quarters. His QBR rating has plummeted by the week, from 60.7 vs. the Sooners (not great) to 38.2 at Arkansas (woof) to 17.5 in last week’s overtime escape against Florida (sirens wailing). In the same span, he’s 2-for-11 on attempts of 20+ air yards, taken 10 sacks, lost 3 of 5 fumbles, and generally looked more like a work in progress than a rising star.

But Tennessee doesn’t need Iamaleava to resurrect his September Heisman campaign. If he hits his marks in a few high-leverage situations, he can trust the league’s leading rusher, workhorse RB Dylan Sampson, and a stout defense to hold up their end of the bargain. At the moment, though, that is a significant if.
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• Alabama 29 | Tennessee 24

LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas

For such a lopsided series — LSU has won 7 of the past 8 — the margins when the Tigers and Hogs get together have been razor-thin: Each of the past 4 games has been decided by exactly 3 points. (Hence that diabolical point spread.) That tracks with the 2024 matchup, featuring a couple of wild-card outfits that between them have already played six games decided by single digits.

Is LSU a Playoff contender? Last week’s come-from-behind, overtime win over Ole Miss was a springboard into the conversation, at least, vaulting the Tigers into the top 10 in both major polls. Beyond that that, the outlook is hazy. The oddsmakers don’t really trust them in Fayetteville, and regardless of the result on Saturday they still project as likely underdogs in their next two games against Texas A&M (in College Station) and Alabama (in Baton Rouge). ESPN’s Football Power Index gives LSU just a 24.8% chance to make the CFP, and a mere 3.9% chance to win the SEC despite being one of three teams off to an unblemished start in conference play. Unfortunately for LSU fans, staying power in their case probably means enduring one grueling heart-stopper after another.
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• LSU 26 | Arkansas 21

Auburn at Missouri (-4.5)

Missouri has been a low-key but reliable pipeline for next-level defensive linemen, producing 12 All-SEC picks (first- or second-team), 10 draft picks and 4 first-rounders since joining the conference in 2012. Who is that guy in 2024? The most disruptive presence to date is an interior player, Florida transfer Chris McClellan, who despite his run-stuffer frame leads the team in QB pressures (10) and sacks (3) in his first year as a Tiger. As for the edge rushers, though, they’ve been nondescript, with starters Johnny Walker Jr. and Zion Young accounting for a combined 17 pressures and 2 sacks. If the Tigers have a dark-horse CFP run in them, this is the point in the season where a difference-maker needs to emerge ahead of a make-or-break Week 9 trip to Alabama. And Auburn, which has been unsettled at both offensive tackle spots for much of the year, is as good an opponent as any to emerge against.
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• Missouri 27 | Auburn 17

South Carolina at Oklahoma (-1.5)

Yeah, this one is gonna get ugly. To be fair, the starting quarterbacks, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr., are plus athletes with plenty of time to grow into their potential. For now, though, they’re squarely in the “growing pains” stage, especially under duress. Per PFF, Sellers and Hawkins have faced pressure on a little more than 46% of their combined drop-backs, resulting in more sacks (30) than completions (24). Both rank in the bottom 10 nationally in PFF’s pressure metric, with Hawkins posting a 29.5 grade and Sellers a 28.8.

Sellers, at least, has the benefit of a relatively intact surrounding cast. Not so for Hawkins, who has yet to play with anything close to a full deck. Four of Oklahoma’s top 5 wideouts remain on the shelf, with the 5th, Deion Burks, tentatively listed as “questionable” for the 3rd consecutive game. (He hasn’t played in either of the past 2.) It would be a big help to their beleaguered young QB if the Sooners had any semblance of a ground game; as it stands, that’s just one more burden Hawkins has mostly had to take on himself.
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• South Carolina 23 | Oklahoma 19

Texas A&M (-16.5) at Mississippi State

Mississippi State might have found a keeper in freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr., who impressed in a surprisingly competitive loss at Georgia. The defense, on the other hand, still belongs on the scrap heap. Name a category — scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense, passing defense, pass efficiency defense, 3rd-down defense, yards per play allowed, first downs allowed, tackles for loss, sacks — and the Bulldogs rank last in the conference, usually by wide margins. Altogether, opposing offenses have banked 67.8% of available yards while punting just 18 times — nearly half of those coming in the Dogs’ lone win against Eastern Kentucky in Week 1.
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• Texas A&M 40 | Miss. State 17

Kentucky (-1.5) at Florida

It’s no secret how much pressure is on Billy Napier in this game, with Florida sitting at 3-3 and a brutal November gauntlet against Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss looming on the other side of an open date. But what about Mark Stoops? In last year’s meeting in Lexington, Kentucky thumped the Gators, 33-14, piling up 324 rushing yards in the process; that win improved Kentucky to 5-0 and briefly vaulted them into the Top 25. Since, the Wildcats are a dismal 3-9 vs. power opponents, their lone win this year coming in a Week 5 ambush at Ole Miss. Last week’s loss to Vanderbilt (as a double-digit favorite, no less) extended their home losing streak in SEC play to seven games over more than a full calendar year.

Put it this way: After Stoops’ reported candidacy for the Texas A&M job was swiftly rejected by the fan base last November, is there any expectation that he’s going to get a call worth taking in the next cycle? Of course, he’d say he’s happy right where he is, making $9 million a year at a program where he’s built up enough goodwill to go on finishing 7-6 for the foreseeable future. But even that is going to be a difficult mark to hit if he doesn’t get back to winning games like this one.
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• Kentucky 24 | Florida 20

Ball State at Vanderbilt (-25.5)

Ball State is in the running for the title of Worst Defense in America over the first half of the season, especially against the pass: Letterman U ranks last in the FBS in yards per catch allowed (10.2), touchdowns allowed (22), completions of 20+ yards allowed (37) and overall efficiency (190.5). On the other side, the Vandy wagon is picking up new passengers by the week. Vanderbilt was the first team out in the latest AP poll coming off back-to-back wins over Alabama and Kentucky, and has a good chance to crack the rankings heading into a Week 9 trip to Texas. Assuming Diego Pavia‘s knee holds up, brace yourself for the possibility that the ‘Dores are going to Austin as a ranked team.
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• Vanderbilt 45 | Ball State 13

Off This Week: Ole Miss

Scoreboard

Week 7 record: 6-1 straight-up | 6-1 vs. spread
Season record: 60-13 straight-up | 46-24 vs. spread

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.