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Texas A&M Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the 2024 season

Connor O'Gara

By Connor O'Gara

Published:

Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Texas A&M. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | LSU | Mizzou | Mississippi State | Oklahoma | Ole Miss | South Carolina | Tennessee| Texas

* * * * * * *

About once a week for the past 2 years, I would pull out my Iowa notepad and look at the numbers that I scribbled down (the Iowa notepad is a gift for the Football Writers Association of America membership). The numbers were Earth-shattering because at some point, it felt like A&M would have to swallow a historic pill.

That is, Jimbo Fisher’s buyout.

I would remind myself what those numbers were because while I believed that A&M wouldn’t be in any hurry to pay it, it also served as a reminder. Fisher receiving that kind of money would mean that none of this went according to plan. Because again, the year-to-year figures were simply absurd:

But somewhere in the midst of a 3rd consecutive disappointing season, enough was enough. A&M swallowed that historic pill and moved on from the man who essentially left Florida State with a blank check awaiting him in College Station. Splashy, it was. Successful, it was not.

For all the jokes about the Kevin Sumlin-Fisher side-by-sides, Sumlin actually fared slightly better overall (51-26 compared to 45-25) while Fisher fared slightly better in SEC play (27-21 compared to 25-23). Either way, both coaches lasted 6 years before collecting 8-figure checks not to work.

So in stepped Mike Elko. Again. As in, the guy who was Fisher’s top assistant for 4 of those seasons. Elko’s defenses progressed every season while Fisher’s offenses … well, you know. Elko’s task is now much more macro. His job goes beyond restoring a defense that was too inconsistent without him. It’ll be up to Elko to do something that hasn’t been done in 3 decades.

That is, lead A&M to consecutive top-15 finishes. That’ll be an all-important mark in this new 12-team Playoff era. The Aggies only had 2 AP Top 25 finishes in the 4-team Playoff era, both within the first 3 years under Fisher.

Early success won’t guarantee that Elko is about to right Fisher’s wrongs. But if he tackles an intriguing schedule successfully and with more of an offensive identity than we’ve seen in recent memory, it would certainly bode well.

Is that possible?

Let’s dig into it with Texas A&M’s 2024 Crystal Ball:

Conner Weigman-Collin Klein expectations should be ________.

“As high as the third level at Kyle Field.”

OK, maybe not that high. But there should be legitimate optimism that a healthy Weigman can be an elite SEC quarterback with Klein at the controls. To be fair, Weigman was already showing signs of being an elite SEC quarterback with Fisher/Bobby Petrino at the calls. Make what you will of the play-calling autonomy then, but with Klein, there’s no denying that he left his alma mater to have full control of the A&M offense with Weigman behind center.

That’s promising because in the last 2 seasons at Kansas State, Klein had 3 quarterbacks who started multiple games (that should sound all too familiar for A&M fans). Adrian Martinez, Will Howard and Avery Johnson all have different skill sets, yet they thrived with Klein. Kansas State won the Big 12 in 2022 with 2 starting quarterbacks, then after historically dominant tailback Deuce Vaughn left for the NFL, the Wildcats improved 5 points per game and had the No. 9 offense in America in 2023 … with 2 starting quarterbacks again.

Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!

That doesn’t mean Klein and Weigman are going to be in lockstep from the jump. There could be some growing pains for Weigman, who hasn’t played in live action since suffering a season-ending injury last September against Auburn in the SEC opener. Before that injury, he was leading all FBS quarterbacks with 8 touchdown passes against the blitz (via PFF).

PFF’s Trevor Sikkema made a compelling case for Weigman to have a path to be QB1 in the 2025 NFL Draft class, based largely on how well the A&M quarterback handled pressure:

“The Texas A&M signal-caller earned an elite passing grade from a clean pocket (92.6), on early downs (91.2) and when there was no play action (92.4). He also placed in the 98th percentile in avoiding negatives (10.3%), meaning how often he earned a negative grade on a dropback. He finished in the 88th percentile in avoiding sacks behind an offensive line that was the second-worst such unit in the SEC during the aforementioned three-and-a-half-game stretch.

“Under-pressure PFF passing grade is more unstable but provides important information, and Weigman’s 86.5 mark placed in the 97th percentile. On third-and-7 or longer, he earned an 87.9 grade, another strong showing in a key metric.”

That’s important because there’s no guarantee that A&M’s offensive line will get back to looking like the elite unit we saw in 2020. Weigman elevates A&M’s offensive floor … as long as he’s healthy. His mobility, inside and outside the pocket, will be an asset.

It would help if Weigman had Evan Stewart back (he transferred to Oregon) or if we knew that Temple transfer Jabre Barber was going to be ready for the start of the season. And the season-ending injury to up-and-coming running back Rueben Owens was a tough blow for the offense.

But as long as Weigman and Klein can gel, it’s fair to have expectations that reach the second level of Kyle Field.

I have questions about the Year 1 Mike Elko defense, but not on the line

It’s possible that 2024 is a roller-coaster season in College Station. What doesn’t feel possible is that A&M’s defensive line is a liability. With Shemar Turner back and Purdue transfer/Big Ten sacks leader Nic Scourton coming home, A&M might have the best defensive end duo in America. We got an early indicator of that when they dominated the spring game.

Turner and Scourton will be a menace for SEC teams that are still figuring out pass protection. And honestly, that duo might expose teams that think they have pass protection figured out. They’re that good. Scourton was a 19-year-old captain last year, and again, he led a Power 5 conference in sacks. There’s a reason he’s getting early first-round buzz for the 2025 NFL Draft. Under Elko, who led dominant defensive lines in his previous stint at A&M, Scourton has the makings of an All-American off the edge.

Turner and Bowling Green transfer Cashius Howell should benefit from teams that realize they need some extra help on Scourton. Obvious passing situations should be a major strength for A&M.

The potential weakness could be behind that unit. Edgerrin Cooper is gone after he was arguably the best linebacker in America (I thought he deserved the Butkus Award). Taurean York’s return to the middle of A&M’s defense was key for Elko’s Year 1, but beyond that, there are questions. A&M allowed a 146.0 QB rating vs. Power 5 competition last year and it allowed an average of 3.7 20-yard completions in those matchups. That has to turn around because as great as the A&M pass rush should be, they won’t get home every time.

Elko addressed the secondary by bringing in veteran transfers in safety Trey Jones III (Central Michigan) and cornerbacks BJ Mayes (UAB) and Will Lee III (Kansas State). That new-look group will be tasked with looking the part from the jump with the veteran quarterbacks it’ll face in the first part of the season.

But the good news? There’s at least a clear strength up front for Elko’s defense.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Notre Dame (L)

What a way to kick off the Elko era. College GameDay will return to College Station for the first time since 2018 when a Year 1 Fisher hosted eventual-national champion Clemson. Much like that matchup, wherein an unranked team gave a Playoff-hopeful squad a true 60-minute game, a similar script plays out 6 years later. But for the second consecutive year, Elko watches his bid to knock off Notre Dame come up just short. The irony is that it’s a healthy Riley Leonard who does the damage. The Duke transfer/former Elko quarterback shakes off a slow start with a memorable second half to quiet the raucous A&M crowd. His go-ahead touchdown pass gives the Irish a 28-24 victory to spoil Elko’s debut.

Week 2: vs. McNeese (W)

Everyone needs to remember how impressive Jaylen Henderson was in relief in 2023. We get a reminder of Henderson’s promise with a stellar relief showing in a blowout win.

Week 3: at Florida (L)

With Florida’s backfield finally healthy, the Gators opt for a ground-heavy approach instead of letting A&M’s defensive line pin its ears back against Graham Mertz. Montrell Johnson Jr. puts together a 150-yard game against an A&M defense that’s still searching for its Year 1 identity under Elko. The Aggies lose their 12th consecutive true road game while Florida quiets some of the preseason doubters with a statement win.

Week 4: vs. Bowling Green (W)

After a slow start for the Aggies’ ground game, it wakes up in a big way. Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels combine for 3 touchdowns in a bounce-back victory.

Week 5: vs. Arkansas in Arlington, Tex. (W)

You know the history. A&M owns Arkansas with 11 of 12 wins since the former joined the SEC, but not in an “it’s over when they step on the field” sort of way. But it’s a “that pivotal play will go A&M’s way” sort of … way. Both fan bases know that. So what happens this time? A Turner strip-sack of Taylen Green turns a 24-21 game into a 2-score game, which everyone in the building senses as the pivotal play. Even with a new coach added to the mix, Arkansas-A&M plays out in an extremely familiar fashion.

Week 6: vs. Mizzou (W)

This will be the first of 2 instances in which A&M welcomes a top-10 team … only to look like a top-10 team by day’s end. The promising start for the Mizzou defense plays on its heels in its first road game of the season. Weigman’s brilliance is on display against a work-in-progress Tigers secondary. Brady Cook doesn’t go down without a fight, but there’s too much pressure on the Tigers to keep pace on the road. A&M hands Mizzou its first loss of the season in a thriller.

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: at Mississippi State (W)

Mississippi State’s offensive line having to face Georgia and A&M in consecutive weeks is a cruel reality of SEC play. Scourton and Turner take turns hitting Shapen. He’s forced into bad decisions that give Weigman and the A&M offense short fields all afternoon. For the first time in over 3 years, A&M wins a true road game.

Week 9: vs. LSU (W)

For the first time all year, LSU’s offensive line doesn’t win the battle up front. Scourton and Turner put on a clinic leading Mike Elko’s defense. On the road, a sped-up Garrett Nussmeier turns the ball over 3 times (2 interceptions, 1 fumble) in a game that A&M comes out with something to prove. Weigman, on the other hand, responds to everything that Blake Baker throws at him with a 300-yard, 3-touchdown showing. LSU’s 7-0 start and top-5 ranking go up in smoke at the hands of the wild-card Aggies.

Week 10: at South Carolina (L)

A&M’s road woes will resurface while South Carolina will remind us all that nobody is safe in Williams-Brice. Why? Fresh off a bye, the Gamecocks look like a well-rested group that finally puts 4 quarters together on offense. A Rocket Sanders-heavy approach works like a charm to give South Carolina an early lead that it doesn’t look back on. A 45-pass attempt day for Weigman leads to South Carolina taking advantage of the 1-dimensional A&M offense. The Gamecocks pick up a huge win to keep bowl hopes alive.

Week 11: Bye

Week 12: vs. New Mexico State (W)

Go ask future A&M opponent Auburn. Never sleep on New Mexico State. But unlike last year at Jordan-Hare, this SEC road trip isn’t as friendly for the road Aggies. The home Aggies cruise.

Week 13: at Auburn (L)

This was the game when Auburn fans realized they had a massive problem last year. Payton Thorne was a walking sack against an A&M defensive front that dominated the battle in the trenches. But against an even better A&M defensive front, this is where we see Thorne make his case to be the SEC’s most improved player. He’s surgical. Balls fit into tight windows all over the field. Thorne is confident in the pocket, he scrambles effectively to extend drives and he’s smart in the red zone. Auburn earns a statement win by multiple scores to keep that outside Playoff path alive.

Week 14: vs. Texas (L)

Elko’s time to beat Texas will come … but not yet. Just as we’ve seen throughout Year 1 of the Elko era, the A&M offensive line and secondary are frustratingly inconsistent units. In this matchup, that yields Quinn Ewers getting rid of the ball quickly and effectively to keep the A&M pass-rush at bay. Matthew Golden, the Houston transfer, delivers a highlight-reel touchdown grab to put an exclamation point on a remarkable showing for Ewers and the Longhorns’ passing attack. In a game that’s never quite out of reach, A&M just can’t quite get that key stop that it needs and Texas wins a thrilling 38-31 battle in College Station.

2024 Projection: 7-5 (4-4), 10th in SEC

12-team Playoff berth? No

The agent of chaos. That’ll be A&M’s role in the 2024 version of the SEC.

The Aggies will show that they can play with anybody on the schedule, for better or for worse. Some weeks, that means knocking off a top-10 foe like Mizzou or LSU. In other weeks, that means losing to lesser SEC foes like Florida and South Carolina. The schedule is set up for it.

The aforementioned road issues combined with home headliners galore should make for a fascinating Year 1 under Elko. A&M might not be ready to instantly ascend into a 12-team Playoff squad with some of the questions on the offensive line and the back end of the defense, but it could greatly impact the SEC title race. The highs will be higher than the lows for an A&M fan base that desperately wants to be one of the powers in this new SEC. That’ll create some legitimate offseason buzz, especially if it includes a Weigman return for 2025 (TBD on that).

For now, though, there’s a different feeling in College Station. It’s not false hope. It’s a team with a plan and a coach who’s neither stubborn nor archaic in his methods. Elko might not win an SEC Coach of the Year honors, but he’ll have A&M fans agreeing on the most important thing in 2024.

They finally got the right guy.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.

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