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The Fearless Prediction still has a sore throat due to the smoke that billowed in and out of Neyland Stadium following Tennessee’s win over Alabama on Oct. 19. We might have even had a few stogie puffs, but did not inhale.
That said, this isn’t the time of year to rest. Loading up on cough drops and Ibuprofen will get us through the weeks to come.
This week we turn our attention to the artist formerly known as the “Battle for the Barrel,” with the Vols hosting Kentucky. This will be the 120th meeting between these rivals. They first played in 1893, a 56-0 win for the Wildcats.
Since then we have seen a World War, had the Great Depression, experienced another World War, landed a man on the Moon, and watched every season of Grey’s Anatomy. And during most of that time, the Vols have been dominant over their I-75 rivals, currently sporting an 84-26-9 record.
Even when Kentucky had probably its best football team, the 1950 squad coached by Bear Bryant, their only loss that season came to General Neyland and Tennessee.
Let’s fast forward to the present day. FanDuel Sportsbook favors Tennessee by 16.5 points.
Are there grumblings in Lexington? Yes my friends, there are grumblings in Lexington. Last week’s 24-10 drubbing at home against a less than mediocre Auburn team dropped Kentucky to 3-5. The Cats’ win at then 6th-ranked Ole Miss on Sept. 28 feels like a millennium ago.
UK coach Mark Stoops is making $9 million annually (plus incentives!) through the 2030 season. That’s a lot of money for a coach who is in serious danger of missing a bowl game.
On the flip side, Tennessee is riding high after wins over rivals Florida and Alabama. Those victories put the Vols in great position to make the inaugural 12-team CFB Playoff. They could probably lose once more, go 10-2, and still make the field.
Looking at Tennessee and Kentucky by the numbers … this doesn’t appear to be a fun night for the Wildcats. The Vols are ranked 3rd nationally in total defense, giving up only 259 yards per game. They are also the only team in the FBS to have held opponents under 20 points in each game this season.
Redshirt senior Will Brooks put together an Al Wilson-esque performance against Alabama, with 8 tackles and a game-clinching INT. James Pearce, Jr. has come on strong after a slow start to the season. I could throw many more names out here, but the story is the same. This Tennessee defense is championship caliber. If the 2022 Vols had this defense, they might have won the national title.
Kentucky’s defense isn’t near that level, but they are pretty good. The Cats are ranked 21st nationally in yards allowed and sport a solid front 7.
Offensively is where we really see the difference. Tennessee is racking up 473.6 yards per game, 8th-best in the FBS. Kentucky is 119th, with 307.9 yards per game. While the Vols are scoring nearly 40 points per game, Kentucky is barely reaching 19 points.
Vols QB Nico Iamaleava has struggled against tougher competition, but his clutch performance in the second half against Alabama should give him confidence heading into this game. The key to this Tennessee offense remains RB Dylan Sampson. He is No. 3 in the country in TDs with 17 and 13th with 838 rushing yards. Sampson is the UT’s MVP. He is well on his way to setting Tennessee’s all-time single season rushing record for TDs, needing only 1 more to tie Gene McEver’s mark of 18 set in 1929. He’s also only 626 yards shy of Travis Stephens’ 2001 single-season rushing record.
Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff has started all 8 of UKs games, but he has not been the answer at QB. He was benched in the second half of their loss to Auburn for Rutgers transfer Gavin Wimsatt. WR Dane Key catches nearly 5 passes a game and RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye averages close to 60 yards a game on the ground.
I know Tennessee looked lousy coming off a bye a few weeks back in their loss at Arkansas, but I seriously doubt we see a repeat performance on Saturday night. The Vols are rested and have their Playoff and conference fates in their hands.
Plus, just wait until Tennessee pipes in crowd noise!
Much like Tennessee always inexplicably struggles against Florida, Kentucky rarely looks good against Tennessee. Circle of life. There’s no reason to expect decades long trends to change course.
Fearless Prediction time…
Tennessee 32, Kentucky 9
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
