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This week the Fearless Prediction will try to rack up the style points as Tennessee hosts UTEP. It will be the final home game played at Neyland Stadium this season (unless the football Gods hand the Vols a home Playoff contest, but that looks unlikely these days).
Tennessee is rebounding from a 31-17 loss at Georgia. The defeat shouldn’t come as that much of a surprise. The Vols have now lost to their border rivals 8 consecutive times. The biggest shock coming out of Athens was how Tennessee’s defense played.
The Vols showed up in Athens as the last men standing. Tennessee was the only team in the FBS that hadn’t allowed 20 or more points in a game. Against UGA, the Vols allowed QB Carson Beck to complete 63% of his passes for 347 yards and 2 TDs, while allowing him to rush for 32 yards and a score.
Beck hasn’t looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate often this season, but he did against the Vols. He had clean pockets, was never sacked and rarely pressured. He didn’t throw an INT, and the Dawgs didn’t turn it over once.
The Vols were probably due a shaky defensive performance … and it happened at a pretty bad moment in their season. Tennessee is still ranked in the top 10 nationally in total defense (9th at 289.7 yards per game) and scoring defense (8th at 14.4 points per game). But the sense of dominance has waned a bit.
Offensively, the Vols couldn’t have asked for a much better start against Georgia, scoring a TD and a FG on their first 2 possessions. But they only scored 7 more points the rest of the way, and were shut out in the 2nd half.
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava was good, but not great, completing 60% of his passes for 167 yards. He was more active than he typically is running the ball, with 12 carries for 40 yards. But some of that was by necessity. Iamaleava was sacked 5 times and pressured consistently after those opening 2 drives.
Maybe the biggest red flag was the lack of big plays in the passing game. Sure, RB Dylan Sampson was his same spectacular self, rushing for 101 yards and a TD. But through the air the Vols simply couldn’t figure out how to get a few chunk plays. A 17-yard connection between Iamaleava and Squirrel White was the Vols longest pass of the night. Deep threat Dont’e Thornton, Jr. didn’t catch a pass. Chris Brazzell II only caught 1 pass for 6 yards.
Nationally the numbers are still pretty good. They are ranked 12th in total offense (455.7 yards per game) and 18th in scoring offense (35.5 points per game).
But are those numbers going to impress a CFB Playoff committee looking for warts with a magnifying glass?
Which leads us to the UTEP game. Are the Miners a good football team? No my friends, they are not. While UTEP has won 2 of its past 4 games, they started the season 0-6. They are ranked 121st in scoring offense, averaging only 19.2 points per game.
Redshirt sophomore QB Skyler Locklear is coming off the best game of his career, throwing for 327 yards and 4 scores in the Miners’ double-overtime win over Kennesaw State. But 2001 Miami the Owls are not. They are 1-9 and recently fired their coach Brian Bohannon in this, their 1st season in the FBS.
Defensively, the Miners give up 29.7 points per game, 99th best in the FBS. Austin Peay transfer Kory Chapman is playing well, with 65 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, an INT and a fumble recovery.
But the Vols should be able to move at will Saturday afternoon. And considering how tight the margins are with regards to the Playoff, you might see Tennessee more aggressive than it has been for much of the season.
Remembering what we said at the start of this article. Style points matter. Tennessee is a 6-TD favorite against UTEP (via DraftKings Sportsbook) and need to put up a convincing victory over an inferior opponent.
Remember in 2022 when Josh Heupel got all sorts of grief from media and opposing coaches (hi Eli Drinkwitz) for throwing deep when the Vols were up multiple scores late in the 4th quarter? We might see that come back in style this weekend.
The Vols will bounce back from the Georgia loss with a convincing win, then spend the rest of their Saturday rooting against their CFB Playoff competition.
Fearless Prediction time …
Tennessee 52, UTEP 7
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
