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Tennessee will battle Evansville in the Knoxville Super Regional this week with a spot in the College World Series on the line.
The Vols swept through their regional as they beat Northern Kentucky, Indiana and Southern Miss by a combined score of 33-12 over the course of 3 games. Evansville pulled off a major upset to get here as a No. 4 seed, beating hosts ECU twice last week.
Here’s a betting preview for the Knoxville Super Regional:
Betting lines the Knoxville Super Regional
Tennessee: -800 to win (via FanDuel)
Evansville: +480 to win (via FanDuel)
States: MA, NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, TN, LA, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IA, WY, IL, IN, OH, MI, NY
21+ and present in a state with legal sports gaming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
Tennessee is by far the biggest betting favorite to advance out of the Super Regional round, and for good reason. The Vols are the No. 1 overall seed (+270 to win the College World Series) and Evansville is this year’s Cinderella story. The Purple Aces became just the 9th No. 4 seed all-time to advance to the Super Regional round by besting East Carolina. They are +12000 to win the CWS — the lowest odds of any remaining team.
Projected pitching matchups for Knoxville Super Regional
Tennessee has one of the best pitching staffs in the country as the Vols entered the postseason ranked top-5 nationally in ERA. Here’s a look at Tennessee’s projected rotation for this Super Regional:
- Chris Stamos: 3.6 ERA in 30 innings | 32 strikeouts | 15 walks
- Drew Beam: 4.16 ERA in 88.2 innings | 80 strikeouts | 22 walks
- Zander Sechirst: 3.60 ERA in 60 innings | 60 strikeouts | 14 walks
Tennessee has typically gone with Chris Stamos as an opener in Game 1, with AJ Causey coming in after 1-2 innings. That formula has worked well for the Vols this season as Causey has a 12-3 record with a 3.98 ERA in 81.1 innings of work. Beam and Sechrist are lined up to pitch Games 2 and 3 against the Purple Aces if Tennessee sticks to its usual script.
As for Evansville, here’s how its projected rotation looks going into this series:
- Kenton Deverman: 3.81 ERA in 106.1 innings | 81 strikeouts | 20 walks
- Donovan Schultz: 5.84 ERA in 89.1 innings | 72 strikeouts | 32 walks
- Kevin Reed: 7.38 ERA in 57.1 innings | 40 strikeouts | 26 walks
Deverman is Evansville’s ace and pitched 8 innings of 1-run ball in the regional round against East Carolina last week. Schultz also pitched well in the regional round, but has been susceptible to the long ball ball (15 homers, a team-worst) this year. Reed struggled in the Purple Ace’s only loss of the regional round, but has made 14 starts this season. Evansville does have a very strong reliever in Shane Harris who will likely play a role in multiple games this weekend (and could be a candidate to start Game 3).
How the lineups stack in the Knoxville Super Regional
Tennessee enters this weekend with arguably the No. 1 offense in the country amongst the remaining 16 teams. The Vols are 2nd nationally in slugging percentage (.604), 17th in batting average (.311), 22nd in on-base percentage (.417) and 1st in home runs (159th).
The Vols are led offensively by Christian Moore, who hit .378 with 29 home runs this season. However, Tennessee doesn’t have just one superstar in the lineup — this is a balanced group that includes 7 qualified batters who are hitting at least .280 on the season. Six of those 7 batters have hit double-digit home runs this season as well.
Evansville does not have nearly as much power as the Vols, but it does have a strong lineup. The group is led by Mark Shallenberger, who hit .390 with 17 home runs this season. Kip Fougerousse also had a standout season by hitting .350 with a team-best 21 homers.
As a team, Evansville posted splits of .301/.410/.509 on the season. The Purple Aces have 8 qualified hitters who managed an OPS of .800 or better in 2024.
Want to bet on college baseball during the postseason? Here’s a list of all the best Tennessee sports betting promos to help you get started!
What public models are saying about the Knoxville Super Regional
Tennessee is a big favorite in the betting markets, but what are some of the public models saying about this series? Here’s a breakdown:
Warren Nolan’s ELO ranking has the Vols at No. 1 nationally while Evansville is down at No. 31 (it moved up 11 spots following its regional win). The model is projecting Tennessee to win 5-4 in Game 1. However, the Vols are favored by significantly more in Games 2 and 3, according to Warren Nolan’s projections.
Sonny Moore’s power ratings also have Tennessee ranked No. 1 nationally entering the Super Regional round — by a significant margin. Evansville is ranked 35th in those power ratings.
Parker Fleming’s projections give Tennessee a 83.78% chance to win the Super Regional and advance to Omaha. That’s the highest percentage of any team in the Super Regional round, per Fleming’s model.
Pick for the Knoxville Super Regional
Even if everything goes right for Evansville, I’m not sure it has enough pitching to win 2-of-3 in Knoxville. A Game 1 upset wouldn’t stun me (and there may be some value on the Evansville money line in that matchup) but it would be surprising if Evansville got anything else out of this regional.
PICK: Tennessee -800 to win the Knoxville Super Regional (via FanDuel)
States: MA, NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, TN, LA, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IA, WY, IL, IN, OH, MI, NY
21+ and present in a state with legal sports gaming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
