Can Xavier Worthy buck the trend of combine record-setters failing to meet NFL expectations?

Xavier Worthy became the star of the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine on Saturday.

The former Texas receiver posted the fastest 40-yard dash in the history of the combine, running it in just 4.21 seconds.

Here’s video of the record-breaking 40-time:

OFFICIAL: 4.21

XAVIER WORTHY HOLDS THE NEW 40-YARD DASH RECORD pic.twitter.com/IrXf3WyemB

— NFL (@NFL) March 2, 2024

Worthy, who entered the week as a potential 1st-rounder, now joins a select group of wide receivers who have run a sub-4.30 40-yard dash at the combine. It’s a remarkable feat that is sure to boost Worthy’s draft stock even higher than it already was.

But should it?

The list of wide receivers who have run a sub-4.3 40-yard dash is littered with busts and disappointments. Worthy is the 8th wide receiver to run a 40-time that fast since 2014. None of his predecessors have amassed even 600 yards in a single season:

Ironically, the player amongst this group who was taken the latest in his respective draft class (JJ Nelson) has the best single-season receiving yardage mark. Every receiver on this list besides Nelson was a Day 1 or Day 2 selection and none — at least so far — have justified the draft capital it took to acquire them.

The idea isn’t that an elite 40-yard dash time is an indicator that a wide receiver prospect will fail in the NFL. Rather, it’s that elite 40-yard dash times cause NFL front offices to overrate a prospect — and thus draft them higher than their true talent level deserves.

Kevin Cole wrote about this phenomenon on his Unexpected Points newsletter in advance of the combine. His analysis found that 40-yard dash times for wide receivers have an outsized impact on their draft position but have little to do with a receiver’s actual NFL value:

If you're going to fade the combine for any NFL position, it's likely best to do it for wide receivers. The 40-yard dash at other drills have huge effects on WR draft position, but little for actual NFL value pic.twitter.com/CzDV7iUKWE

— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) February 27, 2024

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Of course, this does not mean Worthy’s NFL destiny has already been written. Worthy was a 3-year producer at Texas, departing Austin with 2,755 yards and 26 touchdowns in his collegiate career. He averaged 14 yards per reception with the Longhorns — a solid number, but not one that indicates he is overly-reliant on the deep ball.

Last season amongst Big 12 receivers, Worthy ranked 2nd in yards (1,014 yards) and 23rd in yards per catch (13.52). The fact that Worthy has game-breaking speed but is also comfortable operating in other areas of the field bodes well for his chances at a successful NFL career.

For better or worse, Worthy is also entering the draft in one of the top-rated wide receiver classes in recent history. Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers are just a few of the other highly-touted receivers in this class. Their presence at the top of this class could help limit the ceiling on Worthy’s draft stock — even with his blazing-fast 40-time on the minds of evaluators.

Regardless of where he’s picked, Worthy will be looking to buck the trend of Combine record-setters failing to translate to NFL production.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.