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How to bet Clemson vs. Texas in the College Football Playoff: Odds, predictions

Published: Dec 21, 2024 · 12:00 PM EST

Clemson will battle Texas in the College Football Playoff on Saturday afternoon in Austin with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

This is the No. 5 vs. No. 12 game, and these teams got here in very different ways. The Tigers finished the season ranked No. 16 in the final College Football Playoff rankings, but earned the No. 12 seed by virtue of being 1 of the 5 highest-ranked conference champions. Texas, meanwhile, was deemed by the selection committee to be the best team that didn’t win a conference title, thus landing the No. 5 seed.

This is a matchup between, generally speaking, 2 teams with solid defenses — albeit to varying degrees — and offenses that have been inconsistent at times this season.

Here’s a look at the latest betting odds for this game followed by a breakdown of the matchup and picks for this game:

Clemson vs. Texas betting odds

Here are the latest betting odds for this game, via DraftKings:

Spread: Texas -12 (-110) | Clemson +12 (-110)

Total: Over 51.5 (-112) | Under 51.5 (-108)

When Texas has the ball

Texas’ offense has not met expectations this season, but it’s been plenty good enough to get to this point. By virtue of injuries and fumble issues, Quintrevion Wisner has settled in as UT’s lead back heading into the postseason. He has a mediocre 41% individual success rate on the season per Game on Paper, so he’s not likely to completely take over a Playoff game for the Longhorns.

The bigger question with Texas is Quinn Ewers, who has battled injury issues throughout the season and has had a down year compared to his breakout 2023 campaign. He’s only averaging 7.6 yards per attempt this season, which ranks 52nd nationally entering the weekend. Ewers’ mobility might be the bigger issue, as abdomen and ankle ailments have limited his scrambling ability. He’s never been a super mobile quarterback, but he was able to run it in some key spots in 2023.

That has, generally speaking, not been the case this season. He has 69 rushing yards (sack-adjusted) and has only rushed for 6 first downs in 2024. Last season, he had 222 sack-adjusted rushing yards and picked up 11 first downs on the ground. That might not seem like a seismic difference, but when the margins are thin, that stuff can add up quickly.

Clemson’s defense is a far cry from what it was during the height of the Dabo Swinney championship era. The Tigers ranked 54th in EPA-per-play defense this season, according to Game on Paper. That’s hardly a Playoff-caliber defense, although it’s worth noting that Clemson’s issues were rather specific to the running game. Clemson allowed 4.56 yards per carry this season, which ranked 14th amongst ACC teams. The Tigers were 113th nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed, according to Game on Paper.

That lack of rush defense might not hurt the Tigers in this particular matchup, but it’s something the Longhorns should look to exploit as much as possible. Texas fans will remember last season’s Playoff when it matched up with Washington’s terrible rush defense and the Longhorns still had an overwhelmingly-pass-heavy game plan. But maybe with Ewers hobbled more than he was a year ago, Texas will take a different approach in this game. If Texas does decide to force the issue through the air, that would play into Clemson’s strengths. The Tigers were 34th nationally this season in pass defense efficiency rating against ranked teams.

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson’s offense has been hot and cold this season depending almost entirely on the quality of opponent it was facing. The Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per play this season against unranked teams and 4.8 yards per play against ranked opponents. That’s a pretty massive delta that speaks to the idea of Clemson’s offense being undermanned against elite defenses. The difference has been in the passing game, as Cade Klubnik averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in Clemson’s 3 losses this season.

Perhaps more alarming, Clemson has not been able to run the ball effectively in weeks. That’s largely been due to a banged-up offensive line, but the numbers are staggering. Through Clemson’s first 7 games, Phil Mafah averaged 6.5 yards per carry. In the 6 games since, his rushing average has dipped to just 3.9 yards.

Clemson will face a Texas defense that’s elite across the board. The Longhorns might have the best secondary in the country and they’re pretty stingy against the run, too. According to Game on Paper, Texas ranks 2nd nationally in EPA-per-pass allowed and 11th in the country in EPA-per-rush conceded. UT also enters this game ranked 3rd nationally in explosive play (rushes of 10+ yards and receptions of 20+ yards).

How to bet the spread in Clemson vs. Texas

This is easily the biggest point spread out of any of the first-round Playoff matchups, which makes sense given that it’s the 5-seed vs. the 12-seed — it’s supposed to be the biggest mismatch of this round.

Ultimately, I like Texas to beat the number for many of the reasons mentioned above. Clemson’s offense has not been good this season vs. quality competition and the Tigers don’t have a world-beating defense, either. Offensively, I think Texas will find enough points to get the cover here.

PICK: Texas -12 (-110 via DraftKings)

How to bet the total in Clemson vs. Texas

I like the under in this game. As discussed, I don’t trust Clemson’s offense to consistently move the ball against this elite Texas defense.

On the other side, I have questions about the Longhorns with Ewers, particularly in the red zone. Texas was 12th in the SEC in red-zone conversion rate this season. It scored a touchdown on just half of its red zone trips during SEC play in 2024. Backup QB Arch Manning has been much more effective in the red zone than Ewers has, so perhaps we see him in certain spots in this game. But in any case, I think Clemson will get an extra stop or 2 in the red zone and keep this game under the total.

PICK: Total under 51.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Prop bet pick in Clemson vs. Texas

Texas -2.5 (-120 on FanDuel) in the 3rd quarter. Texas was a solid 3rd quarter team all season, particularly against ranked teams. The Longhorns averaged 5.8 yards per play in the 3rd quarter in 2024, which makes sense when you consider that Steve Sarkisian is regarded as one of the best coaches in the sport — he’s going to make great adjustments coming out of the break more often than not. Meanwhile, Clemson wilted in the second half this season. The Tigers’ offense went from 7.18 yards per play in the 1st half to 5.41 yards per play in the 2nd half. The 4th-quarter spread is also enticing, but I’d rather bet the 3rd quarter in case this is already a laugher by the time it gets to crunch time.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.