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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Texas. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | LSU | Mizzou | Mississippi State | Oklahoma | Ole Miss | South Carolina | Tennessee
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Go back to any other point of the last decade-plus of Texas football. Or really, go back to any other point of the post-Mack Brown era. We wouldn’t have been able to ask the question with a straight face.
“Do you think Texas is SEC-ready?”
Belly laughs. Scoffs. Cackles. You get it. Jokes would’ve been made at the Longhorns’ expense.
Even the post-2018 vibe — wherein Sam Ehlinger declared that Texas was “baaaaaaaaack” after a 4-loss season — would’ve been met with some skepticism. At that point, we were still trying to figure out if Texas could find a way to get past Maryland, much less the week-to-week grind of the SEC.
Shoot, if Texas had been set to join the SEC entering 2023, we would’ve been rightfully skeptical. As if an 8-win season was supposed to convince the masses that a once-proud program was set to actually look the part in the toughest conference in the sport. That’s not how this works, no matter who you are.
But it’s not 2023, 2018 or any other time during Texas’ decade-plus of irrelevance. It’s 2024.
Relevant? You’d better believe it. Making the 4-team Playoff is nothing to scoff at, and neither is handing Nick Saban his most lopsided home loss in 17 seasons at Alabama. Speaking of 17, that was Texas’ average margin of victory in Big 12 play last season.
Nobody should be laughing at Texas anymore. Well, unless someone associated with the university speaks out against “Horns Down.”
(The biggest misunderstanding that the college sports world has about Texas is this notion that all Longhorns fans find it disrespectful. Go ask literally any Texas fan you can find and I promise you that they’re far less triggered than everyone thinks they are. You’re more likely to get a “rent free” comment than anything suggesting insecurity.)
Texas is indeed SEC-ready. Just how SEC-ready are the Longhorns?
Let’s dig into it with Texas’ 2024 Crystal Ball:
Can the offense overcome the banged-up running back room?
It’s a fair question after both expected starters CJ Baxter and Christian Clark suffered season-ending injuries in fall camp. Mind you, that came after Jonathon Brooks was the first running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft, and running back/return specialist Keilan Robinson also left school for the NFL Draft.
That’s a lot of depth hits since the end of the 2023 season, especially for a team that didn’t recruit a portal running back. In Steve Sarkisian’s defense, he wasn’t expecting Baxter and Clark to go down. He appeared to have 5 home-grown running backs at his disposal. Now, that could be closer to 2 or 3. At least in a traditional sense.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
In other words, Jaydon Blue is about to get a significant workload instead of being in more of a timeshare with Baxter. Blue had just as many carries as Baxter in the Playoff game (9), and he had 11 to 13 touches in each of those 4 games after Brooks went down late last season. Baxter injury or not, Blue was going to be the best back in the passing game. Whether he gets Najee Harris/Bijan Robinson levels of work in Sarkisian’s offense remains to be seen.
Tre Wisner will step into a more prominent role after he was almost exclusively on special teams while true freshman Jerrick Gibson is going to have to get up to speed in a hurry. Both figure to complement Blue in some capacity.
The good news is that Texas returns an offensive line with 4 of 5 starters from a team that finished No. 12 in FBS in yards/play. Quinn Ewers took that next step, albeit with different pass-catchers than the group he’ll have in 2024. AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy are gone, and Isaiah Bond (Alabama) and Matthew Golden (Houston) are in. Sarkisian praised the depth of that room and said there’ll be more of that than the first 3 offenses he had.
The other good news? The schedule. For all the talk the past 3 years about Texas’ SEC-readiness, it’ll face just 2 conference opponents that won 8 games last season, one of which is fellow Big 12 export Oklahoma. In the short term, that could allow Texas to navigate the early-season problem, especially in the 12-team Playoff era with a greater margin for error.
In the long term, however, running back depth could be a cause for concern. Shoot, Texas and Washington both dealt with banged-up running back rooms in the Playoff last year. Even though they were both productive, Baxter and Blue both fumbled in the second half of that game while Brooks was on the shelf. It’s the little things that matter on that stage.
That could be something that holds Texas back from capitalizing on a potential national championship window.
The defensive line changes are well-documented … will that be Texas’ kryptonite?
Losing a defensive tackle duo like Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat isn’t something that 99% of college football teams will ever experience. Those 2 set the foundation for the Longhorns’ defense, which is why they both came off the board in the 38 picks of the NFL Draft. Replacing them wasn’t going to be easy, no matter what.
But it became an even tougher task when decorated defensive line coach Bo Davis left to take the same job at his old stomping grounds, LSU. Davis deserved a ton of credit for the developmental role he played. The optimism about the post-Murphy/Sweat transition would’ve been rooted in Davis’ track record. Instead, it’ll be more of an unknown.
To be clear, it’s not that Texas lacks promise on the defensive line or the defense as a whole. Transfer Trey Moore set UTSA single-season records for sacks (14) and tackles for loss (18). Even more impressively, he did that in separate seasons as an edge-rushing game-wrecker. Alfred Collins returned for a 5th season as the new anchor of the interior defensive line after an honorable mention All-Big 12 season.
There’s a lot to like behind that group, too. Anthony Hill Jr., is coming off a remarkable true freshman season in which he racked up 66 tackles (40 solo), 8 TFLs and 5 sacks. He’ll be one of the leaders of a defense that should be able to count on its secondary with preseason All-SEC selections Jahdae Barron, Andrew Mukuba and Malik Muhammad, as well as San Jose State transfer Jay’Vion Cole, who joined the team post-spring.
There’s plenty to like. The question is if it’ll be enough to prevent that group from taking a step back without Sweat and Murphy.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Colorado State (W)
The beauty of Texas blowouts in 2024 is, now that Maalik Murphy is off to Duke after he was excellent in the backup role in 2023, we’re almost guaranteed to get a look at Arch Manning. He throws his first career touchdown pass in a game that’s over by the end of the first quarter.
Week 2: at Michigan (W)
The Michigan defensive line against the Texas offensive line will be one of the better strength-on-strength matchups of the regular season. Mason Graham and the Wolverines contain Texas’ work-in-progress ground game, but Ewers gets time to throw. So what does the thriller in Ann Arbor come down to? Just as Pete Kwiatkowski did last year in a Week 2 game on the road against a young, mobile quarterback, Texas’ defense confuses Alex Orji. Hill sacks Orji twice, and Cole makes his first big play in a Texas uniform with a momentum-swinging interception early in the 4th quarter. For the first time since the Wolverines walked off the field after losing to TCU, Michigan takes an “L.”
Week 3: vs. UTSA (W)
Against his former team, Moore shows UTSA — and really the college football world — why it’s extremely difficult to keep stars at the Group of 5 level. After a slow Texas start, he takes over with a 3-sack game to prevent any notion of a 4-quarter game in Austin.
Week 4: vs. Louisiana-Monroe (W)
For the first time, Bond and Amari Niblack show why they were coveted transfers. Unlike the previous week, Texas’ offense is humming from the jump and ULM is overwhelmed all day.
Week 5: vs. Mississippi State (W)
The only offensive play-callers who led a winning effort against Texas were Jeff Lebby and Ryan Grubb. The former won’t exactly have the pieces that he had in his Year 2 Oklahoma offense. Texas’ secondary cools down the Mississippi State receivers after a fast start. Two early Blake Shapen interceptions put the visiting Bulldogs in a hole that they can’t climb out of against the Longhorns’ balanced attack.
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: vs. Oklahoma in Dallas (W)
Year to year during the 2020s, this matchup has felt entirely different. I expect the pendulum will swing back in Texas’ favor after turnovers proved costly last year in Dallas. Texas’ secondary bounces back and flips the script. This time, it’s Oklahoma that can’t avoid costly turnovers. Down 4 late, Jackson Arnold forces a throw to 2023 hero Nic Anderson in the red zone that Jahdae Barron picks off. His second interception of the day allows Texas to pick up a pair of first downs to run out of the final 3 minutes. For the second consecutive year, a battle of unbeatens in the Red River Rivalry lives up to the billing and then some.
Week 8: vs. Georgia (W)
Yes, this one lives up to the hype. Both teams trade blows in what feels like a true heavyweight fight. It’s the type of game that never sees a deficit get beyond a touchdown with big plays on both sides of the ball. So then what proves to be the deciding factor? Sarkisian scheming in the passing game late. In an extremely uncharacteristic sequence of events, UGA leaves Bond uncovered after a miscommunication in the secondary. He waltzes in for a go-ahead touchdown to give Texas a 31-28 victory that has everyone begging for a rematch.
Week 9: at Vanderbilt (W)
The talk of the college football world is Texas only leading 17-14 at halftime against Vandy. Call it a Georgia hangover or perhaps a look-ahead to the bye, but Lea’s defense does its job. Langston Patterson records a sack on 4th down to force a turnover on downs and De’Rickey Wright picks off Ewers late in the first half. But after a pass-heavy first half, Texas leans on Vandy in the ground game. Blue and Gibson take turns picking up first downs in a 21-point third quarter to give the Longhorns more than enough breathing room to avoid the colossal upset.
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: vs. Florida (W)
With Ewers out with an injury he suffered against Vanderbilt, Arch Manning gets his first career start. Unlike Uncle Peyton Manning, Arch doesn’t struggle to beat Florida. Instead, Texas’ defense helps him out by forcing a pair of early turnovers to give Manning and the Longhorns a couple of short fields that turn into easy touchdown drives. Manning doesn’t set the world on fire, but he plays a clean game in his starting debut to fuel a 28-14 Texas win.
Week 12: at Arkansas (W)
Remember when these teams faced off 3 years ago? Things have changed a bit since that night. The Longhorns are no longer a pushover team in the trenches while Arkansas is no longer the on-the-rise program. That’s evident in this matchup, which sees Manning again get the start for the injured Ewers. Manning shakes off a slow start and has his best performance to date to avoid a repeat of 2021. A blowout Texas win spells trouble for the Sam Pittman era.
Week 13: vs. Kentucky (W)
An SEC Championship berth is up for grabs, albeit just for the home team. Texas plays with a sense of urgency while UK’s road woes continue. The Longhorns get after Brock Vandagriff for 5 sacks while a healthy Ewers gets all the time in the world. In their first matchup as SEC foes, Texas cruises to a 35-10 win to emphatically punch a ticket to Atlanta.
Week 14: at Texas A&M (W)
Mike Elko’s time to beat Texas will come … but not yet. Just as we’ve seen throughout Year 1 of the Elko era, the A&M offensive line and secondary are 2 frustratingly inconsistent units. In this matchup, that yields Ewers getting rid of the ball quickly and effectively to keep the A&M pass-rush at bay. Golden, the Houston transfer, delivers a highlight-reel touchdown grab to put an exclamation point on a remarkable showing for Ewers and the Longhorns’ passing attack. In a game that’s never quite out of reach, A&M just can’t quite get that key stop that it needs and Texas wins a thrilling 38-31 battle in College Station.
2024 Projection: 12-0 (8-0), 1st in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? Yes
Is it a bit ambitious to project a 12-0 SEC debut for Texas? I don’t think so, though I admit that this prediction came before the running back injuries, which could prove costly against a team like Georgia or Michigan.
At the same time, if there’s ever someone who can figure out a rushing attack, it’s Sarkisian with an experienced offensive line. He’s dealt with a ton of turnover in that room after guys like Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson became studs. This won’t be new. Granted, it won’t be ideal in a potential 17-game season.
But the surrounding pieces are finally at a championship level. Ewers can take another step if he stays healthy. A defense with loads of experience on the back end should benefit from some coordinator continuity. That defensive line could be in a favorable spot to learn the ropes against the front of the schedule, which doesn’t include any world-beater offensive lines (Michigan has a new-look OL). It’s possible that the SEC slate — outside of Georgia — forgives Texas’ potential flaws.
All of that is on the table in Year 1 in the SEC. Does that mean missing the Playoff is impossible? No, but it doesn’t feel nearly as likely as the Longhorns getting back to the Playoff with a national title on the table.
That’s nothing to scoff at.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
