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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual SEC Crystal Ball prediction series concludes with Vanderbilt.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | LSU | Mizzou | Mississippi State | Oklahoma | Ole Miss | South Carolina | Tennessee | Texas | Texas A&M
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I don’t blame Vanderbilt for trying to capitalize on a little momentum.
Roughly 13 months ago, Clark Lea stood at the podium at SEC Media Days in Nashville after inking an extension through the 2029 season. Lea was fresh off a promising Year 2 wherein he led the Commodores to SEC victories against Florida and a road win against a ranked Kentucky team. A 5-win season had Vandy playing for bowl eligibility in the regular-season finalé against Tennessee.
That didn’t go Vandy’s way, but it was still enough for AD Candice Storey Lee to agree on a new deal for Lea heading into Year 3. The fact that it came during a week in which the SEC was in Nashville didn’t appear to be a coincidence. Was that an effort to get a little extra spotlight? Sure.
But in 2023, Vandy embodied more of the work-in-progress stadium renovation than it did a team worthy of the SEC spotlight. It wasn’t just a winless conference season. It was a 10-game losing streak to close the season. A 35-28 win against Hawaii was Vandy’s lone win against FBS competition. All 9 Power 5 opponents beat Vandy by at least 16 points, and the Dores never hit the 30-point mark.
That wasn’t the way Year 3 was drawn up. At all.
So now, Lea’s Year 4 is facing a daunting question — will he produce enough to earn a Year 5?
Let’s dig into it with Vanderbilt’s 2024 Crystal Ball:
Another new QB room? How?
Goodbye, AJ Swann (LSU). Goodbye, Ken Seals (TCU). Goodbye, Walter Taylor (Colorado).
Another year, another new quarterback room. Lea changes over a quarterback room more often than Americans change their air conditioning filters. It’s astounding. All 3 quarterbacks who took snaps for Vanderbilt are gone, and naturally, 3 new quarterbacks are on board.
In stepped Nate Johnson (Utah), as well as New Mexico State quarterbacks Blaze Berlowitz and, most important, Diego Pavia, who’ll take over the starting job after he led New Mexico State to a 10-win season, which included a stunning blowout win at Auburn.
Oh, Lea saw that. A lot.
Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea calls Diego Pavia a “maniac,” and says he watched every snap of New Mexico State’s win over Auburn “nine or 10 times” in the weeks following the upset.
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) July 15, 2024
That explains every major move that Vandy made this offseason. Why? Lea essentially just attempted to bring New Mexico State to Nashville. Look at all the New Mexico State players/coaches that Lea brought to Vandy:
- QB Diego Pavia
- QB Blaze Berlowitz
- TE Eli Stowers
- RB Jamoni Jones
- RB Makhilyn Young
- OC Tim Beck
- Head coach Jerry Kill (now a consultant)
Mercy.
Hey, for all we know, the New Mexico State imports will be at the foundation of the Vanderbilt turnaround. It’s certainly a 180 from the home-grown method that Lea followed in the past. None of his offenses ranked better than No. 89 in scoring, and he has yet to have a quarterback start and finish the season.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Will that be the key to a 2024 turnaround? Lea’s future certainly depends on it.
Clark Lea is taking matters into his own hands, which means no (defensive) excuses
In addition to importing New Mexico State to fix his offense, another major change that Lea made was taking over the defense. He’ll be his own defensive coordinator after that group somehow regressed and was a bottom-5 unit in FBS. Sadly, that wasn’t even an outlier. So far, here are the best FBS rankings for each of Lea’s defenses at Vandy:
- No. 89 in tackles for loss
- No. 96 in rushing yards/game allowed
- No. 104 in yards/pass allowed
- No. 105 in sacks
- No. 114 in QB rating allowed
- No. 117 in passing TDs allowed
- No. 119 in scoring defense
- No. 120 in yards/play allowed
- No. 121 in yards/rush allowed
Yikes.
That’s why Lea took control of the defense, which does return the talented CJ Taylor and Langston Patterson. Those will be the anchors (pun intended) of a unit that needs to progress and stay healthy if it wants any chance at getting back to 2022 levels.
Lea’s decision to take over the defense is clearly a sign that he senses the urgency. At the very least, the expectation was for him to elevate the defensive floor after his Notre Dame defenses were one of the most consistent in the sport. So far, though, no good.
That has to change in a hurry.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Virginia Tech (L)
An on-the-rise Virginia Tech program that’s No. 4 in America in percentage of returning production will be too much for Vandy. Kyron Drones’ mobility will frustrate a Vandy defense that’s gassed by day’s end. And while Pavia flashes in his Vandy debut, it’s still not nearly enough to keep pace. A 35-17 loss feels frustratingly familiar for Vandy.
Week 2: vs. Alcorn State (W)
Shoutout to the late Steve McNair. Unfortunately, Alcorn State’s offense is a bit different than the one he led 3 decades ago. Pavia and fellow New Mexico State transfer Eli Stowers connect for a pair of touchdowns to get Vandy on the board in 2024.
Week 3: at Georgia State (W)
It’s a new-look Georgia State squad after Shawn Elliott’s surprising departure to join Shane Beamer’s staff at South Carolina. Vandy takes advantage of that inexperience. A healthy Sedrick Alexander hits the century mark to fuel a 28-21 road victory.
Week 4: at Mizzou (L)
After a relatively quiet start, we see the best version of Luther Burden III. He scores 3 touchdowns in the first half to give Mizzou a comfortable lead. That proves to be more than enough to take care of a Vandy team that’s not built to come from behind on the road.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: vs. Alabama (L)
A slow start in Nashville for Alabama? It’s possible. It’s also possible that Alabama takes all of its anger out on the Dores, this is “Alabama, you’re next” 2.0 and the Tide win 59-0. Either way, this won’t be particularly close in the second half.
Week 7: at Kentucky (L)
Will we get a repeat of the last time Vandy was in Lexington? Not so much. After the bye week, Kentucky comes out with a much better offensive approach. Brock Vandagriff plays his best game of the young season and hits Key for a pair of highlight-reel touchdowns. Unlike the last time that Vandy visited Lexington and pulled off a stunner, nothing is taken lightly. Diego Pavia has a 3-interception game that falls short of repeating the 2022 upset.
Week 8: vs. Ball State (W)
After 3 losses to start SEC play, Ball State is exactly what the doctor ordered. Specifically, a Ball State team that can’t exactly throw the football is in over its head at Vandy. Taylor has a pick-6, which is 1 of 4 turnovers forced in a 24-10 Vandy win.
Week 9: vs. Texas (L)
The talk of the college football world is Texas only leading 17-14 at halftime against Vandy. Call it a Georgia hangover or perhaps a look-ahead to the bye, but Clark Lea’s defense does its job. Langston Patterson records a sack on 4th down to force a turnover on downs and De’Rickey Wright picks off Quinn Ewers late in the first half. But after a pass-heavy first half, Texas leans on Vandy in the ground game. Jaydon Blue and Jerrick Gibson take turns picking up first downs in a 21-point third quarter to give the Longhorns more than enough breathing room to avoid the colossal upset.
Week 10: at Auburn (L)
Pavia back at Jordan-Hare?!? Do I think Pavia would’ve ended up at Vanderbilt without last year’s unthinkable performance to lead New Mexico State past Auburn? I don’t. But this year, he won’t sneak up on the Tigers. At least I don’t think he will. In a rare battle of coaches who are calling their own plays, the home team gets the upper hand and avoids a second consecutive loss at the hands of Pavia.
Week 11: vs. South Carolina (L)
There are many similarities between Nick Emmanwori and Taylor. Both often look like do-it-all players for defenses that need about 10 more guys like them. But on this day, Tonka Hemingway does his best Emmanwori imitation by feasting on the Vanderbilt offensive line. Even bringing in Johnson doesn’t slow down Hemingway and the Gamecocks’ defensive line, which fuels its second consecutive winning effort.
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: at LSU (L)
The headline of the week is that Clark Lea is expected to be out as Vanderbilt’s coach. With bowl eligibility off the table, Vandy appears that it’ll elect to wave the white flag and start over yet again. To make matters worse for the visiting Commodores, AJ Swann steps into the game early in the second half and lights up his former team in a lopsided LSU victory.
Week 14: vs. Tennessee (L)
In 3 seasons, Josh Heupel is averaging a 35-point victory against Lea. His teams scored a minimum of 45 points, and 2 of those games were with Joe Milton behind center. In other words, no, I don’t think the late-season version of Nico Iamaleava will be the outlier. A 5-touchdown day for the Vols’ quarterback in yet another blowout win all but confirms that Lea is out after Year 4.
2024 Projection: 3-9 (0-8), 16th in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? No
It’s hard to forecast anything but disappointment for Lea and Vandy. A program that continues to lose more than it brings in via the transfer portal is always going to be facing an uphill climb. Go ask Clemson about that. But Lea’s time at Vandy will close with as many SEC victories (2) as Swinney national championship rings.
A troubling thought for Vandy in the new SEC: If it can’t happen with Lea, a Vanderbilt grad who insisted on building those local relationships to capitalize on the Nashville market, who can it happen with in that job? It’s a fair question, especially as FirstBank Stadium construction continues.
Lea’s shortcomings as a developer and as a transfer portal evaluator will be what Vandy cites as his undoing. Ergo, that’ll be high on the priority list for his successor, whoever that is. Maybe someone like Marshall’s Charles Huff or Texas State’s GJ Kinne will be targeted. Perhaps longtime Utah OC and former Vandy assistant Andy Ludwig would return to Nashville.
Whatever the case, 2024 ends with an all too familiar reality in Nashville.
Back to the drawing board.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
